丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 政府债仍是最主要支撑项——2025 年 4 月金融 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比提升 0.3 个百分点，从增量结构上来看，政府债仍 为主要贡献项。2025 年 4 月 M1 同比增速为 1.5%，增速环比下降 0.1 个百分点；M2 同比增 速为 8.0%，增速环比提升 1 个百分点。存款结构方面，4 月为税收"大月"，叠加政府债发行， 财政存款收大于支，对企业和居民存款形成一定的挤出效应，另外 4 月债市收益率下行或带动 居民存款分流至理财等非银机构。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 政府债仍是最主要支撑项—— 2] 2025 年 4 月金融 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 4 月人民币贷 ...

Group 1: Trade Relations and Impact - The China-U.S. trade relationship has shown signs of easing, but the future direction remains uncertain[3] - Industries with low revenue profit margins and high export exposure, such as textiles and furniture, will be significantly impacted by a 30% tariff[6] - High-margin industries with low export exposure, like pharmaceuticals and beverages, will experience limited impact from tariffs[6] Group 2: Identifying Strong Alpha Products - Strong alpha products can be identified through three perspectives: import/export dependency, resilience during previous trade tensions, and high re-export rates[3] - Traditional labor-intensive products, such as textiles and toys, maintain a global supply advantage[3] - Mid-range manufacturing products, like home appliances and electrical machinery, can mitigate trade friction effects through re-export strategies[3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Resilience - During the 2018-2019 trade tensions, certain products, including ships and integrated circuits, showed resilience and even market share growth[9] - Re-export trade through countries like Vietnam and Mexico has played a crucial role in buffering the impact of tariffs[10] - Products with high U.S. import dependency and strong global supply advantages are less affected by U.S. tariff policies[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - Historical data extrapolation may lead to inaccuracies in predicting future impacts[11] - Unexpected changes in U.S. tariff policies could significantly alter market dynamics[11] - Increased scrutiny on origin verification may affect China's re-export capabilities[11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr at a suggested purchase price of $2.57 per share or $25.66 per American depositary share, aiming for complete integration of Zeekr as a wholly-owned subsidiary [2][5]. - The integration of Zeekr is seen as a positive long-term development for Geely, enhancing brand positioning and internal resource integration, which is expected to lower costs and improve competitiveness [9]. - The company is entering a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with a strong new vehicle cycle and successful transitions to new energy across its brands [9]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - On May 7, 2025, Geely announced its plan to acquire all shares of Zeekr, currently holding approximately 65.7% of the shares [2][5]. - The proposed purchase price represents a premium of about 13.6% over the last trading day’s closing price and a 20% premium over the weighted average price of the last 30 trading days [9]. Financial Performance - Zeekr is expected to contribute positively to Geely's profitability, with Zeekr achieving a quarterly profit of 150 million yuan in Q4 2024 [9]. - Geely's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 9.8X [9]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including five new models and several facelifts under the Geely brand [9]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its smart driving capabilities across its product lines, with significant advancements expected in the upcoming models [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's self-owned brand development has entered a high-speed growth phase, focusing on the "main food" strategy with frequent new product launches, significantly enhancing profitability. The company is expected to launch 2-3 core products in 2025, focusing on upgrading major products and continuously iterating on staple canned food and baked goods. The overseas production capacity is steadily expanding, with a solid global production layout enhancing risk resistance. The profitability of the US and Canadian factories is strong, and the self-owned brand's overseas business is growing rapidly, opening up future performance growth points. The expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.49 and 1.95 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 38X and 29X, making it a key recommendation [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 394 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.89%. In Q4 of 2024, revenue was 1.276 billion yuan, up 23.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 112 million yuan, up 98.2% year-on-year. In Q1 of 2025, revenue reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, with a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year [4][8]. Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on the rapid growth of its self-owned brands, with domestic sales expected to grow by over 40% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the "Wanpi" brand. The company is also expanding its overseas production capacity, with a global strategy taking shape across five countries, including China, the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Cambodia. The US and Canadian factories are expected to add significant snack production capacity, ensuring stable growth and enhancing global supply chain resilience [2][8]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 5.124 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 549 million yuan, and further growth is expected in subsequent years, with revenues reaching 6.700 billion yuan and net profits of 714 million yuan by 2026 [14].

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 营收增长提速，盈利呈现弹性—家电行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报综述 [Table_Summary] 在内销有国补助力，外销新兴市场强劲增长势能延续的背景下，家电行业整体经营趋势加速向 上，其中仅厨电受地产影响仍处于阶段盘整当中。站在当前时点，美国关税政策或有持续反复、 扰动的可能性，我们建议在不确定性中把握确定性，围绕对美净敞口较低以及内销有国补政策 加持，业绩增长确定性较高的细分行业优质龙头进行布局。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 营收增长提速，盈利呈现弹性 2] —家电行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报综述 [Table_Summary2] 整体：收入增长提速，盈利持续改善 2024A/2024Q4/2025Q1 家电行业样本公司营收分别同比+5.23%/+8.37%/+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company set a target for 2024 feed sales growth of 3 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%. In the first quarter, the year-on-year growth exceeded 25%, surpassing the planned growth rate. The company's performance in the first quarter was better than expected, aided by profits from pig futures hedging. The price of aquatic products is expected to recover by the end of 2024, and the overall price trend in 2025 remains strong, which will drive domestic aquatic feed growth. The long-term potential for feed exports is significant, supporting the company's main business performance growth. The projected main business performance for 2025 and 2026 is 3.85 billion and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a valuation of 10 billion yuan for the breeding business, corresponding to current main business valuations of 21X and 18X, respectively, and the company is continuously recommended [2][4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 114.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.3%. In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.0% [4][9] Feed Segment - The company plans to sell 24.42 million tons of feed in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with poultry feed, pig feed, and aquatic feed growing by 12%, -3%, and 11%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, feed sales reached 5.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with poultry feed, pig feed, and aquatic feed growing by 20%, 35%, and 20%, respectively. The overseas sales volume increased by 40% year-on-year [9] Breeding Business - The company plans to sell 6 million pigs in 2024, contributing 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan to performance. In the first quarter of 2025, approximately 1.6 million pigs were sold, with the self-breeding cost reduced to around 13 yuan per kilogram, contributing about 600 million yuan to profits [9] Aquaculture and Seedling Business - The aquaculture segment is expected to recover due to the rebound in fish prices by the end of 2024, and the company has actively reduced production to minimize losses. The seedling business faced delays in stocking due to adverse weather, with profits remaining stable in the first quarter of 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.232 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.82%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 605 million yuan, up 25.12% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 593 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.57% year-on-year [3][8]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted domestic demand. The company has also optimized its product structure, leading to strong market performance [8]. - The gross profit margin increased by 1.59 percentage points to 19.63% in Q1 2025, attributed to consumer preference for higher-priced products due to subsidies [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the new national standards implemented in 2024, which will enhance production qualifications and product consistency, favoring leading companies in the industry [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 62.32 billion yuan, a 25.82% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.05 billion yuan, up 25.12%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 5.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.57% increase [3][8]. - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 625 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.71%, with an operating profit margin of 10.03%, up 1.12 percentage points [8]. Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a significant increase in domestic demand, with 3.341 million electric bicycles being replaced from January to April 2025, which is 2.4 times the total replacement volume from September to December 2024 [8]. - The company has launched multiple products across different price ranges, contributing to the optimization of its product structure [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 2.607 billion yuan, 3.038 billion yuan, and 3.429 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.05, 12.06, and 10.69 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [9] Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn in revenue and net profit due to pressures from real estate and infrastructure, as well as global trade tensions, but the industry is nearing historical lows in terms of profitability [2][6] - There is a notable divergence in profitability among sub-industries, with downstream processing, coal chemical, and gas chemical sectors showing positive growth, indicating structural investment opportunities [2][6] - Key investment opportunities are identified in high-quality growth, growth potential, and high dividend yield sectors [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The petrochemical sector's revenue and net profit are projected to decline in 2024 and Q1 2025, with overall revenue for 2024 estimated at approximately 8,210.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.02% year-on-year, and net profit at about 395.0 billion yuan, down 0.54% [21][22] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be around 200.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.14% decline, with net profit decreasing by 4.43% [21][22] Sub-Industry Analysis - The performance of various sub-sectors in 2024 shows mixed results: - Petrochemical (-0.54%) - Oil and gas services and equipment (-7.61%) - Energy extraction (4.87%) - Oil and gas storage and sales (-35.41%) - Traditional refining (-19.10%) - Private refining (-38.09%) - Coal and gas chemicals (19.21%) - Downstream processing (117.14%) [6][22] - In Q1 2025, the performance continues to vary: - Petrochemical (-4.43%) - Oil and gas services and equipment (18.13%) - Energy extraction (-2.48%) - Oil and gas storage and sales (-2.43%) - Traditional refining (-28.31%) - Private refining (-9.55%) - Coal and gas chemicals (65.79%) - Downstream processing (55.26%) [6][22] Investment Focus - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Gradual recovery in the industry, favoring quality leading companies with rising volumes and prices [7] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution, particularly in POE and ethylene technology [7] 3. Stable cash flow and high dividend yields, particularly in central and state-owned enterprises, which may see a revaluation [7][8] Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to focus on include: - High-quality growth: Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Zhongman Petroleum, New Natural Gas, and Guanghui Energy - High-end material import substitution: AkzoNobel and Dingjide - Beneficiaries of coal chemical investments in regions like Xinjiang and Shanxi: Aerospace Engineering - Recovery plays: Huajin Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical - High dividend stocks: CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 results that exceeded expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue of 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year. The strong performance is attributed to robust orders in the mattress, cooler, and water sports product segments [3][7]. - The new business segments are showing steady growth, although short-term pressure on mattress orders due to tariffs is noted. Production and delivery for water sports and cooler products in Southeast Asia remain normal, while domestic mattress shipments to the U.S. are temporarily halted [7]. - Looking ahead, while domestic mattress orders are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, a gradual recovery is anticipated as tariffs are implemented and production capacity shifts to Southeast Asia. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 270 million, 340 million, and 410 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 13x, 11x, and 9x [7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 41.7%. The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of 210 million yuan, a 39.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit turnaround from a loss of 30 million yuan to a profit of 20 million yuan [3][12]. - The financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with total revenue expected to reach 1.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.1 billion yuan by 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a rebound in performance and valuation anticipated starting in 2026. Short-term growth is supported by a significant increase in new customers, while existing customers remain stable, allowing for a favorable growth rate in 2025. In the medium term, the stabilization of existing customers combined with the continued growth of new customers is expected to drive a new growth cycle. Active capacity expansion is anticipated to enhance performance elasticity, and improvements in industry dynamics and profit margins are likely to lead to valuation uplift. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 40.3 billion, 46.7 billion, and 54.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5%, 16%, and 17%, respectively. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 14, and 12 times for the respective years, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% for 2025 based on a 70% payout ratio [2][4][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of a new factory. The company maintained strong cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios despite the pressure on profit margins [4][9].