详解南京银行 2024 年半年报，业绩持续向上，资产质量稳稳，确认中期分红 南京银行 (601009) /银行 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 08 月 1 日 齐级： 祥诗(维持)公司召唤到及估估 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|--------------------|-------------------|-------------------| | 辛场价格: 10.09 | 授校 | | 2022A | 2023A | | 外村 太も村快主演＊無手： S0740517030004 | 捨糸牛 yoy%净利润（百万元） | 宇业状入（百万元） | 44,4609.03%18,408 | 45,0061.23%18,502 | | Email: daizf@zts.com.cn | ೫ 玄中 yoy% | | 16.02% | 0.51% | | | | | | | PEGEmail: dengmj@zts.com.c ...

年内降息预期进一步升温——美联储 7 月议息会议点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 8 月 1 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：肖雨 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 投资要点 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 分析师：游勇 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn [Table 相关报告_Report] ◼ 当地时间 2024 年 7 月 31 日，美联储召开 7 月议息会议，会议维持政策利率区间（5.2 5%-5.5%）不变，符合预期。美联储对通胀与就业表态更为积极，鲍威尔在会后新闻发 布会上暗示 9 月可能降息。结合目前通胀下行趋势，年内的降息预期进一步升温。 ◼ 会议申明变化不多，一是承认就业增长放缓，二是对通胀表态更为温和。 联储承认就业市场放缓。就业增长从 6 月议息会议声明中的"依然强劲（remained str ong）"，修改为"有所放缓（moderated）"。 对于通胀的表述更为温和，联储更为关注"双重目标风险"。通胀程度描述从"仍处高 位（elevated） ...

详解南京银行 2024 年半年报：业绩持续向上；资产质量稳健；确认中期分红 南京银行(601009)/银行 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 08 月 1 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：增持(维持) [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 市场价格：10.09 | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师 戴志锋 | 营业收入（百万元） | | | | | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 9.03% | 1.23% | 7.61% | 4.23% | 4.18% | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | 净利润（百万元） | | | | | | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 18.75 [1] Core Views - The company has shown effective cost control and operational quality improvement, with a focus on reducing costs and enhancing management efficiency. Despite a revenue decline of 14.94% year-on-year, the gross margin has improved by approximately 5 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in operational quality [4][5] - The company is actively expanding new business and technology, transitioning its business model towards SaaS operations, and enhancing its competitive edge through AI applications in specific industries [4] - The revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards due to a sluggish downstream market, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 at 22.62 billion, 23.94 billion, and 27.19 billion respectively, and net profits at 2.30 billion, 2.87 billion, and 3.80 billion respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2,441 million in 2023, with a projected decline to 2,262 million in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Net profit is expected to recover from 195 million in 2023 to 230 million in 2024, and further to 287 million and 380 million in 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.59 in 2023 to 0.70 in 2024, reaching 0.87 and 1.15 in the following years [1] Market Position - The company maintains a market capitalization of 6,188 million with a circulating market value of 1,858 million [2] - The stock price has shown a relative performance against the industry benchmark, indicating a potential for growth in the coming months [3][6] Operational Strategy - The management has implemented digital tools to enhance cost control and operational efficiency, leading to a significant reduction in losses and improved cash flow from operating activities [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its enterprise customer base and developing a new electronic procurement bidding platform, which is expected to drive future growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q2 earnings that significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing both growth potential and certainty as a global leader in the automotive glass industry [1][4] - The revenue for Q2 reached 9.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.11 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from product upgrades, increased market share, and new business opportunities, particularly in high-value automotive glass products [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022A: 28,099 million yuan (19% growth) - 2023A: 33,161 million yuan (18% growth) - 2024E: 39,634 million yuan (20% growth) - 2025E: 46,606 million yuan (18% growth) - 2026E: 53,651 million yuan (15% growth) [1] - Net profit projections are: - 2022A: 4,756 million yuan - 2023A: 5,629 million yuan - 2024E: 7,075 million yuan - 2025E: 8,319 million yuan - 2026E: 9,997 million yuan [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.82 yuan in 2022 to 3.83 yuan in 2026 [1] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing a strong growth trajectory driven by the increasing share of high-value products such as panoramic roofs and HUD windshields, which are expected to enhance average selling prices (ASP) [4] - The company plans to invest significantly in expanding production capacity, with a total capital expenditure of approximately 8.12 billion yuan in 2024, marking a five-year high [4] - The aluminum trim business is anticipated to enter a growth phase, with new orders expected to ramp up production [4]

Group 1: A-Share Strategy Insights - The report emphasizes the need to avoid linear extrapolation of expectations, suggesting that a phase of stable growth policies is likely to emerge, and overseas economic resilience may exceed expectations [1][2] - The report indicates that the domestic economic trend is expected to decline, but it overlooks the dynamic balance of policies, which could lead to a more optimistic outlook [1][2] - The report highlights that the market's reaction to phase policy easing has been timely, but the rapid nature of such trends requires cautious participation from investors [2] Group 2: Recommended Stocks for August - The report recommends Pingmei Shenhua (平煤股份) in the coal sector, citing dual drivers of cost reduction and high dividend commitments [5][6] - Huaxia Airlines (华夏航空) is highlighted in the transportation sector for its significant growth potential and expected stable subsidy income [5][6] - In the textile sector, Taihua New Materials (台华新材) is noted for its high growth forecast and upcoming production capacity for recycled nylon [5][6] - The report recommends Haier (海澜之家) for its cost-performance advantages and improved configuration value [5][6] - In the building materials sector, Conch Cement (海螺水泥) is recognized for its competitive cost advantages and recovery in profitability [5][6] - Hangzhou Bank (杭州银行) is recommended for its strong performance resilience and high asset quality [5][6] - BYD (比亚迪) is noted in the automotive sector for its solid support in volume and profit sustainability [5][6] - Changan Automobile (长安汽车) is highlighted for its strong product cycle and expected performance recovery [5][6] - Luxshare Precision (立讯精密) is recommended in the electronics sector for its potential benefits from the AI super cycle [5][6] - ChipMOS Technologies (芯碁微装) is noted for its leading position in advanced packaging and strong order growth [5][6]

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 7 月 31 日 经济亮点在外需 ——2024 年 7 月 PMI 数据解读 [Table_Summary] 要点 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 2024 年 7 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 7 月 PMI 指数，制造业 PMI 为 49.4%，较 前值下降 0.1 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2%，较前值下降 0.3 个百分点。 经济景气程度延续放缓趋势，回升基础还需巩固。 ◼ 从分项指数来看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，主要是生产指数和 新订单指数在拖累，经济呈现供需双弱之势。支撑制造业 PMI 的主要分项为 供应商配送时间、原材料库存、从业人员指数，分别支撑制造业 PMI 回升 0. 03、0.02、0.04 个百分点。 ◼ 供需角度看，供给方面，7 月生产指数为 50.1%，较前值回落 0.5 个百分点， 除极端天气、洪涝灾害等对生产造成扰动之外，有效需求不足对工业生产的 制约愈发明显。需求方面，7 月新订单指数为 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading innovator in the smart industrial sector, with a strong presence in automation, informatization, and intelligent technologies [4] - Industrial automation is a key driver of new quality productivity, with policies encouraging the adoption of advanced automation technologies and equipment [4] - The DCS business, particularly the NT6000 product, has significant technical advantages and certification barriers, widely applied in energy, chemical, and other sectors [4] - The industrial internet platform EmpoworX provides comprehensive smart factory and data platform solutions, enhancing digital and intelligent transformation [4] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable domestic industrial automation policies, with projected net profits of 250 million, 351 million, and 467 million yuan for 2024-2026 [4] Company Overview - Founded in 1993, the company has transformed into a leader in industrial automation and informatization, with a strong focus on DCS systems and industrial internet platforms [12] - Core businesses include industrial automation and industrial internet/software, accounting for 97.77% of 2023 revenue [14] - Industrial automation revenue in 2023 was 1.081 billion yuan, a 42.24% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 39.73% [14] - Industrial internet and software revenue in 2023 was 295 million yuan, a 7.66% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 38.94% [14] Industrial Automation - The DCS market is expected to grow from 124.0 billion yuan in 2023 to 140.3 billion yuan in 2025, driven by new quality productivity policies, equipment replacement cycles, and domestic substitution [34] - The NT6000 DCS system has a control cycle of 5ms and an operation response cycle of less than 700ms, significantly better than the industry standard of 2.5s [57] - The NT6000 system has been widely applied in thousands of power plants, covering a range from tens of megawatts to million-megawatt units [60] Industrial Internet - The EmpoworX platform provides over 200 device models, 100+ algorithms, 100+ industrial apps, and 10+ SaaS solutions, enabling digital transformation across various industrial scenarios [66] - EmpoworX has been recognized in the "Top 50 Specialized Industrial Internet" list for three consecutive years, rising to 8th place in 2024 [77] - The platform has been applied in sectors such as thermal power, chemical, and metallurgy, with significant projects in smart factories and data platforms [69] Financial Performance - Revenue in 2023 was 1.407 billion yuan, a 21.9% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 39.2%, up 7.7 percentage points [27] - Net profit in 2023 was 161 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 434 million yuan in 2022 [27] - Contract liabilities in 2023 reached 622 million yuan, a 12% YoY increase, reflecting strong order growth [28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage with a market price of 12.93 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foothold in the ultrasonic sensor market, with a significant growth trajectory expected due to increasing penetration in automotive electronics and other applications [3][4][6]. - The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% in revenue and 14% in net profit from 2012 to 2023 [3][15]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend in the ultrasonic sensor market, with substantial opportunities for growth in various sectors including automotive, industrial control, and consumer electronics [4][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in ultrasonic sensors, leading the domestic market with a revenue of 360 million CNY in 2023, accounting for 76% of total revenue [3][10]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin of over 30% and a net profit margin of over 10% consistently [3][15]. - The controlling shareholder has a technical background, which, along with stock incentives, enhances team motivation and cohesion [3][10]. Market Analysis - The global ultrasonic sensor market is valued at 37 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 13% from 2023 to 2032 [4]. - The Chinese market for ultrasonic sensors is close to 9 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 11% from 2014 to 2023 [4]. - The company is a leading domestic player in ultrasonic sensors, with significant room for domestic substitution against foreign competitors [4][6]. Product Development - The company is advancing into the pressure touch sensor market, which is expected to grow steadily, with a global market size of 11.4 billion CNY in 2022 and a projected CAGR of 8% from 2022 to 2028 [5][6]. - The company is collaborating with major 3C brands like ASUS, VIVO, and Xiaomi, aiming to produce 200 million units of pressure touch sensors by 2027 [6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 96 million CNY, 116 million CNY, and 139 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 13 [1][6]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with positive operating cash flow consistently since 2018 [23].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company analyzed [1]. Core Insights - Microsoft achieved a record revenue of $64.7 billion in FY24Q4, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% [2][9] - The net profit for the same quarter was $22 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.3% [2][13] - Operating cash flow reached $37.2 billion, up 29.3% year-over-year, while free cash flow was $23.2 billion, reflecting a 17.1% increase year-over-year [2][15] - Microsoft Cloud revenue was $36.8 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 21.5% [2][21] - Capital expenditures for FY24Q4 were $19 billion, a significant increase of 77.6% year-over-year, with total capital expenditures for FY2024 reaching $55.7 billion [2][17] Summary by Sections 1. Performance & Capital Expenditure - Microsoft reported a record revenue of $64.7 billion in FY24Q4, exceeding previous guidance [5][9] - The company’s capital expenditure is projected to continue increasing in the next quarter [17][33] 2. Business Segment Analysis - **Intelligent Cloud**: Revenue reached $28.52 billion, up 18.9% year-over-year, primarily driven by Azure growth [21][24] - **Personal Computing**: Revenue was $15.9 billion, reflecting a 14.3% year-over-year increase, largely due to the acquisition of Activision Blizzard [24][26] - **Productivity and Business Processes**: Revenue totaled $20.32 billion, with an 11.1% year-over-year increase, mainly driven by Office 365 [27][29] 3. FY25Q1 Guidance - Microsoft expects revenue to be between $63.8 billion and $64.8 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 13.8% [3][32] - Each business segment is projected to show year-over-year growth, with Intelligent Cloud expected to grow by 18% to 20% [32][34]