证券研究报告 2024年6月20日 【中泰电子】AR深度报告：AI落地最佳载体， 硬件&生态共驱发展 ...

Industry Overview - The AR industry is expected to experience a new wave of growth driven by the resonance between hardware and ecosystem advancements [4] - AR sales have shown steady growth, with global sales reaching 510,000 units in 2023, a 21% YoY increase, and domestic sales in China growing by 54% YoY to 200,000 units [6] - The AR market is currently dominated by domestic manufacturers, with Xreal, Rokid, and Thunderbird Innovation holding significant market shares globally [6] - The industry is transitioning from tethered AR devices to more integrated and lightweight standalone AR devices, with tethered AR accounting for 85% of sales in China in 2023 [8] AI + AR Evolution - AR glasses are considered the best carrier for multimodal AI models like GPT-4o, offering hands-free interaction and real-time information processing [11] - Meta's Ray-Ban glasses, powered by the Llama 3 multimodal AI model, have sold over 1 million units since their launch in October 2023, marking a significant milestone in AI-powered AR devices [11] - The integration of AI with AR is expanding the application boundaries of AR glasses, enabling features like real-time translation, navigation, and object recognition [14] AR Optical Technology - AR optical technology is evolving, with waveguide solutions showing significant potential for consumer-grade AR devices due to their compact size and high transparency [23] - BirdBath and freeform optical solutions are currently the most mature and widely used in consumer AR devices, but waveguide technology is expected to become the mainstream due to its superior performance in terms of size, transparency, and clarity [31] - Array waveguides offer excellent imaging quality and are capable of 2D pupil expansion, but face challenges in mass production due to complex manufacturing processes [34] - Surface relief waveguides (SRG) are easier to mass-produce but suffer from issues like the rainbow effect, limited field of view, and light leakage [48] AR Display Technology - AR display technologies include LCoS, DLP, MicroOLED, and MicroLED, with MicroLED showing the most promise due to its high brightness, fast response time, and compact size [57] - MicroLED displays are particularly suited for AR applications due to their high pixel density, brightness, and low power consumption, but face challenges in mass production, particularly with red light efficiency and full-color integration [67] - In 2023, 9 MicroLED AR glasses were released, with 6 of them being monochrome, highlighting the ongoing challenges in achieving full-color MicroLED displays [69] Key Players in AR Industry - **Crystal Optech**: Focused on array waveguides and volume holographic waveguides, collaborating with global leaders like Lumus and Digilens to advance AR optical technology [76] - **Goertek**: A global XR leader with expertise in AR device manufacturing, optical solutions, and display technologies, partnering with Meta and Qualcomm [79] - **Sunny Optical**: A global optical leader with a strong focus on waveguide technology and AR camera sensing solutions [83] - **Lante Optics**: A key supplier of glass wafers for AR waveguides, with capabilities in producing high-refractive-index, ultra-thin glass wafers [85] Investment Recommendations - The AR industry is poised for significant growth as AI and hardware advancements converge, with key players in the AR supply chain expected to benefit from this trend [91]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with a market price of HKD 6.31 [1]. Core Insights - TCL Electronics is undergoing significant improvements, with a focus on enhancing profitability and operational efficiency. The company has launched an ambitious stock incentive plan aimed at achieving substantial profit growth over the next few years [4][6]. - The company aims to address past issues such as low net profit margins and losses from non-core businesses, indicating a shift towards a more stable and profitable operational model [4][41]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics show a steady increase from HKD 71,580 million in 2022 to an estimated HKD 103,401 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% [1]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from HKD 447 million in 2022 to HKD 2,006 million by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of around 23% [1]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 36 in 2022 to 8 by 2026, indicating improved valuation as profitability increases [1]. Business Improvement Strategies - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan that aims for adjusted profits to grow from HKD 8 billion in 2023 to between HKD 12-20 billion by 2026, with annual growth rates of 50-150% [4][41]. - Organizational restructuring is underway to enhance efficiency, with a shift from a scale-oriented approach to a more efficiency-driven model, which includes splitting sales departments into six marketing divisions [4][6]. Growth Drivers - The core growth areas identified include high-end product penetration, particularly in MINILED and large-screen televisions, which are expected to contribute significantly to profit margins [4][6]. - The internet business segment is showing strong growth potential, with a stable gross margin above 50% and a revenue CAGR of 44% over the past five years [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - TCL Electronics has achieved a global market share of 13%, with a strategic focus on increasing its presence in high-end markets and enhancing product offerings to compete effectively against established brands [4][6]. - The company is also leveraging its extensive distribution channels to expand into diverse business areas, including solar energy and smart home products, which are expected to drive future growth [5][6].

Core Insights - The report analyzes the pricing mechanism of TLAC non-capital bonds from the perspectives of supply, demand, and terms, providing investment recommendations based on these analyses [2]. Supply Analysis - The supply of TLAC non-capital bonds may be lower than previously expected due to exemptions through the deposit insurance fund, with a projected TLAC gap of CNY 0.96 trillion for 2025 and CNY 3.19 trillion for 2028 across major banks [2]. - If the deposit insurance fund is included in the total loss-absorbing capacity, the TLAC gap for 2025 would be zero, and for 2028, it would be CNY 0.19 trillion [2]. - The issuance of TLAC non-capital bonds is expected to occur approximately two and a half months after the shareholders' meeting resolution, with a new round of supply anticipated in the third quarter [2]. Demand Analysis - There is strong demand for TLAC non-capital bonds, with high turnover rates and significant holdings by various institutions, particularly fund companies and banks [2]. - Fund companies hold the largest amount of TLAC non-capital bonds, totaling CNY 141.65 billion, indicating robust market interest [2]. Terms Analysis - TLAC non-capital bonds are similar to secondary capital bonds in terms of special clauses, including redemption, write-down, or conversion clauses, with TLAC write-downs occurring after secondary capital bonds [2]. - The issuance terms of TLAC non-capital bonds are structured to include "3+1" and "5+1" maturities, with their primary purpose being to supplement total loss-absorbing capacity [2]. - Initial pricing of TLAC non-capital bonds is anchored to ordinary bonds of the same maturity, with market valuations gradually aligning with secondary capital bonds [2]. Investment Recommendations - For "3+1" TLAC bonds, it is recommended to participate actively when the price ratio exceeds 50% of the difference between TLAC and ordinary bonds relative to secondary capital bonds [2]. - For "5+1" TLAC bonds, participation is advised when the price ratio exceeds 60% [2].

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the automotive industry, specifically focusing on Li Auto, a company known for its extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The overall sentiment towards Li Auto remains positive, particularly regarding its extended-range electric vehicle offerings [1]. - The call is part of a broader series of reports on the automotive sector, indicating a strategic focus on electric vehicle trends and market dynamics [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of the electric vehicle market and the role of companies like Li Auto in shaping future automotive trends [1]. - The mention of a formal engagement with clients suggests a focus on providing tailored insights and analysis for investors interested in the automotive sector [1].

证券研究报告 报告日期：2024年6月19日 【中泰电子】Computex 2024系列—高通主 题演讲梳理 ...

铝产业链价格持续上行，公司盈利加速扩张 中国宏桥(1378.HK)/有色金属 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年6月19日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：12.32港元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 134,814 136,165 182,545 199,568 217,674 分析师：刘耀齐 增长率yoy% 15% 1% 34% 9% 9% 执业证书编号： S0740523080004 净利润（百万元） 8,702 11,461 20,963 24,793 29,876 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -46% 32% 83% 18% 21% 每股收益（元） 0.92 1.21 2.21 2.62 3.15 分析师：郭中伟 每股现金流量 0.80 2.36 1.13 2.92 3.27 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 净资产收益率 10% 13% 20% 20% 20% Email：guozw ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Zhongtai Securities, focusing on its recent client signing activities [1] Core Points and Arguments - Zhongtai Securities has officially signed new clients, indicating a positive growth trajectory in client acquisition [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the strategic importance of expanding the client base for Zhongtai Securities, which may enhance its market position and revenue streams [1]

本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户 未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频音频文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎本会议信息仅供参考不代表任何投资建议本公司不对任何人因使用本会议中的信息所引致的任何损失负担任何责任 好的 各位领导早上好 我是中泰汽车首席何俊仁今天早上我和我的同事张佳明一起跟大家汇报一下我们的领跑汽车的最近外发的深度报告那么在此之前的话 首先讲一讲就是两分钟时间汇报一下就是为什么我们看好六月的整车 核心的邏輯的話是新品的這個拖動的邏輯因為整車的一個頭從中期維度去看年度維度去看的話其實核心看的還是產品週期可能之前大家知道週期但是其實一些強勢自主品牌已經走成一個很明顯的一個持續的這種跨年度3到5年維度的這種成長股像BRD、長安、理想等等所以就是還是看的是產品 那麼就是在6到9月份之間其實我們梳理了基本上主流的自助品牌主流的自助品牌在此期間的話都會發佈24年的一些就是高權重銷量占比的一些優質的電車那麼零跑也是 零跑的話在6月底的話會發佈應該說6座的這個C16這個車型 對於總體銷量的拖動是非常明顯的現在預期的 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The production and demand indicators in May showed a year-on-year decline, indicating a potential convergence of the previously strong production-demand gap [14] - The industrial added value in May increased by 5.6% year-on-year, down from 6.7% in the previous month, with a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, the lowest since 2011 [14] - Fixed asset investment in May saw a slight decrease in year-on-year growth from 3.6% in April to 3.5%, while retail sales of consumer goods increased from 2.3% in April to 3.7% in May [14][15] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction - Real estate investment in May decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to April's -7.3% [15] - The sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2024 showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 20.3%, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [15] - The construction sector's PMI remains above the threshold, but there is a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in construction activity [15] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - Huawei's HDC 2024 will showcase HarmonyOS NEXT and the Pangu model 5.0, highlighting advancements in the HarmonyOS ecosystem and AI capabilities [16] - HarmonyOS NEXT is set to officially launch in Q4 2024, with the operating system expected to surpass Apple's iOS in market share in China [16] - The Pangu model 5.0 aims to enhance AI applications within the HarmonyOS ecosystem, providing robust computational support for various industries [16]