Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, steel prices oscillated downward under the dominance of macro - negative factors, despite some improvement in the steel market fundamentals during the peak season. The low inventory of steel has limited positive effects due to differentiation among varieties and regions, and the uncertainty of inventory depletion in the coming off - season. [5] - Steel mills maintained high production levels as their profitability did not deteriorate, leading to a high supply of steel. There is a risk that the pressure from off - balance - sheet steel may transfer to on - balance - sheet steel, increasing supply pressure. [5] - Steel demand improved seasonally but was lackluster during the peak season, with a continued differentiation in strength among varieties. Construction steel demand is expected to remain weak, while plate demand is supported by the domestic manufacturing industry but has potential risks from overseas. [5] - Looking ahead, overseas risks will still affect the steel market, but the impact will weaken. As demand shifts from peak to off - season and external demand has potential risks, steel prices are likely to come under pressure. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. 4 - Month Steel Prices Declined Weakly - In April, steel prices oscillated downward under the influence of macro - negative factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US trade war. By April 25, the main futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.50% and 5.18% respectively compared to the end of last month, hitting new lows for the year. Spot prices were relatively resilient, showing a low - level oscillating trend. [12] - In April, the basis of steel strengthened significantly, and the term structure of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained in a contango structure with a narrowing premium for far - month contracts. The strength of varieties switched again, and the price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar decreased. [13] 2. Steel Inventory Depleted with a Decent Decline - By the week of April 25, the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 11.71% compared to the end of last month, reaching a low level in recent years. Construction steel inventory decreased significantly, while plate inventory depletion was less due to high supply. [22][25] - Steel social inventory decreased by 13.58% compared to the end of last month, while factory inventory decreased by 6.88%. The inventory of rebar continued to deplete, but there were concerns about the inflection point. The inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to deplete, but the decline was narrowing, and the pressure remained. [26][32][40] 3. Steel Supply Remained High and Pressure Needed to be Alleviated - In the peak season, steel mills were actively producing, and steel supply returned to a high level. From January to March, domestic crude steel production increased by 0.60% year - on - year. In April, steel mills increased production again. High - frequency data also showed that steel supply was rising. [48] - As of the week of April 25, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills reached 84.33% and 91.60% respectively. The production of short - process steel mills was also active. The supply increase was mainly in off - balance - sheet steel. [51] - The production of construction steel mills was active, and rebar production was at a high level. The production of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly due to maintenance but was expected to increase again. [61][65] 4. Steel Demand Improved Seasonally with Differentiated Strength among Varieties 4.1 High - Frequency Demand Indicators Continued to Rise - By the week of April 25, the weekly apparent demand for steel increased by 6.49 tons compared to the end of last month, but was still lower than the same period last year. In April, the total steel demand increased by 4.16% compared to the same period last month but decreased by 3.87% year - on - year. [68] - Construction steel demand improved seasonally but was still weak, while plate demand was supported by the domestic manufacturing industry but faced potential risks from overseas. [69] - Rebar demand improved but with limited increase and was expected to weaken seasonally. Hot - rolled coil demand showed weakening resilience, and the demand expectation was weak. [74][82] 4.2 Steel Exports Reached a High Level, Beware of Hidden Risks Materializing - In March, China's steel exports reached 10.456 million tons, a new monthly high. From January to March, cumulative steel exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year. However, the steel export situation is becoming more severe as Vietnam and South Korea have launched anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel. [89][90] - The export price difference has increased, strengthening the order - taking ability. Before the anti - dumping rulings, there was a "rush to export" situation. The increase in billet exports compensated for the decline in finished steel exports. Overall, steel export demand was expected to remain at a relatively high level but faced risks. [91][92] 4.3 The Economy Started Well and Policies Remained Steady - In the first quarter of 2025, the domestic economy started well, with GDP growing by 5.4% in real terms and 4.6% in nominal terms year - on - year. Industrial production was strong, and the service industry also showed an upward trend. [95] - Investment improved steadily, with the narrowing of the drag from the real estate sector. In the real estate market, sales improved, and the cash flow of real estate enterprises improved marginally, but the demand for steel in the real estate sector was expected to remain weak. [98][101] - Infrastructure investment accelerated, with the issuance of infrastructure funds speeding up. Policy support was expected to continue to promote infrastructure investment in the second quarter. [108] 5. Conclusion - In April, steel prices declined under the influence of macro - negative factors. Steel inventory depleted, but the positive effect was limited. Steel supply remained high, and demand improved seasonally but was lackluster. [115] - Looking ahead, overseas risks will still affect the steel market, but the impact will weaken. As demand enters the off - season and external demand has potential risks, steel prices are likely to come under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production of steel mills. [118]

x30003 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 甲醇 | 周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 甲醇周报 专业研究·创造价值 伊朗港口爆炸影响有限 甲醇偏弱运行 核心观点 甲醇：受美国释放积极信号，计划降低关税战的利多消息提振， 宏观因子有所改善。与此同时，甲醇下游需求因子开始发力，在烯烃 盘面利润回归正值，烯烃消费有所增强，叠加港口库存和内陆社库延 续去化节奏，基本面逐渐好转。在偏多因子主导下，本周国内甲醇期 货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，当周期价累计涨幅达 1.41%至 2298 元/吨。5-9 月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国"对等关税"政策的负面影响逐渐 ...

4 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 4 月 28 日 橡胶周报 利空因素消化 橡胶震荡企稳 核心观点 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素有限，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：上周末伊朗阿巴斯港发生爆炸引发市场关注。我们认为，此次伊朗港口爆炸事件对于该 国甲醇外运影响较为有限。首先，因为伊朗甲醇主要通过阿萨鲁耶港出口，而爆炸发生在阿巴斯港 的沙希德拉贾伊港，对甲 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看弱 | 美国关税政策预期放松，期价累 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 计涨幅较大，多头了结意愿强 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：近期黄金高位回落，沪金在 780 上方企稳，一度反弹至 800 元/克。黄金的冲高回落一方 面是由于美国总统特朗普表示对华关税过高，预期将大幅下降，短期美关税放缓，金价避险需求下降； 另一方面，黄金无论是年初以来还是 4 月以来均已 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, gold prices rose and then fell with increased volatility. On Wednesday, the Shanghai gold price dropped by over 50 yuan/gram from its intraday high. The decline was due to Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs, which decreased the safe-haven demand for gold, and the large price increases since the beginning of the year and in April, leading to stronger profit-taking intentions among long positions [3][24]. - In the medium to long term, the main drivers for gold price increases are the safe-haven and asset allocation demands brought about by deglobalization and de-dollarization, and the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, the gold price's rise and fall have broken the strong pattern, with long positions more willing to sell, putting pressure on the gold price. Considering the approaching May Day holiday and the significant fluctuations during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the market may be cautious, and the gold price is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday [3][24]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content provided other than a reference to the dollar index linkage chart [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From April 17th to April 25th, COMEX gold decreased by 0.33%, COMEX silver increased by 1.46%, SHFE gold futures decreased by 0.26%, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.46%. The dollar index rose by 0.16%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.18%. The 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.09, the S&P 500 rose by 4.59%, and US crude oil futures decreased by 1.99%. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.77%, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.69%. The SPDR gold ETF decreased by 6.02, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.91 [8] 2. The US Dollar and US Treasuries Hit Bottom and Rebounded, While Gold Rose and Then Fell - Since April, there has been a significant divergence between the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield, mainly due to the large-scale selling of US Treasuries in the financial market, which was caused by both the liquidity crisis and the pessimistic outlook on the US long-term economy [10]. - Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs improved the global macro environment, increased market risk appetite, led to the bottoming and rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury prices, and caused gold to rise and then fall. The relaxation of US tariff policies also led to a significant rebound in US stocks, reduced market panic, and caused the gold price to fall from its high [10][13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of April 22nd, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 12,811 contracts, short positions increased by 14,021 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 26,832 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - In the first quarter, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, reflecting the increased safe-haven demand in the context of deglobalization [17] - Since April, the US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen, mainly because the market's pessimistic outlook on the US economy has led to the selling of 10-year US Treasuries, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise continuously, while the 2-year US Treasury yield mainly depends on the Fed's interest rate [20] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short-term decline and long-term upward trend of the gold price, as well as the expected weak oscillation before the holiday [24]

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on April 28, 2025, providing views and analysis on the iron ore 2509 contract [1]. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory trend. The supply and demand pattern is weakly stable, and the price is affected by both supporting and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the limit - production policy situation [1][2]. Summary by Section Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is also oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, leading to low - level oscillations of the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The expectation of limit - production policies has reappeared, putting pressure on raw material prices. Although the high rigid demand and pre - holiday restocking support the ore demand, the inventory has not decreased, indicating that the fundamentals of the ore have not substantially improved. There is still an expectation of supply recovery and concerns about demand reaching its peak, so the negative factors remain, and the ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory trend [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 4 月 28 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 节前有色震荡运行 核心观点 铜：期价冲高后震荡，节前预计维持震荡运行 上周铜价冲高后整体在 7.8 万下方震荡整理。期价的上涨主要受 益于海外宏观回暖，即美国关税政策放松预期，以及产业支撑。产业 层面，上游加工费持续下跌，低利润下炼厂减产预期上升；4 月中旬 下游生产积极性较高，补库意愿上升，基差和月差持续走强，对应电 解铜社会库存下降明显。五一节前下游存在备货需求，这一定程度上 也助推了铜价。海外宏观扰动边际下降，国内产业支撑不断增强。短 期铜价已修复至 2 月的水 ...

www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/21 | -140.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) ...