棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 豆油：利多交易充分，高位或有回调 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,294 | 涨跌幅 -1.38% | （夜盘） 收盘价 9,386 | 涨跌幅 0.99% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,540 | -0.61% | 8,512 | -0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,852 | -2.16% | 9,767 | -0.86% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,405 | -0.68% | 4,407 | 0.09% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.11 | -2.49% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 212,511 | -171541 | 188,258 | -38,522 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 109,913 | -73,760 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 15 日 焦炭：情绪回落，高位下修 焦煤：情绪回落，高位下修 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1214 | -31 | -2.5% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1707 | -30 | -1.7% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 2526893 | 660629 | -24908 | | | | J2601 | 31744 | 37673 | -1034 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | | | | | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1470 1189 | 1470 1189 | 0 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the hog market, analyzing the current fundamentals, trend strength, and market logic [1][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The market is under pressure due to increased planned slaughter volume by group farms in August, passive hog retention by散户, and limited demand growth. The daily trading volume has been poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and with the significant premium of the futures price over the warehouse receipt cost, the industry's willingness to deliver has increased. Attention should be paid to the price convergence. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, with the spread structure maintaining a reverse spread. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [4] Group 4: Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,870 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,900 yuan/ton (down 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 14,130 yuan/ton (down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 5,772 lots (down 4,063 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 16,609 lots (down 2,018 lots from the previous day). For hog2511, the trading volume is 34,419 lots (down 13,089 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 64,710 lots (down 1,520 lots from the previous day). For hog2601, the trading volume is 15,747 lots (down 2,368 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 46,213 lots (up 437 lots from the previous day) [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 60 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 30 yuan/ton (up 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and - 200 yuan/ton (up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The spread between hog9 - 11 is - 30 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between hog11 - 1 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Summary Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Increasing Disturbances in News" and was released on August 15, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions relevant macro and industry news [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon futures Si2511, the closing price is 8,675 yuan/ton, with a change of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, 20 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 110 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 512,076 lots, and the open interest is 279,035 lots. For polysilicon futures PS2511, the closing price is 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 860 yuan compared to T - 1 and 320 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 415,544 lots, and the open interest is 127,757 lots [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for industrial silicon is - 40 yuan/ton, and the buy - near - month and sell - continuous - first inter - period cost is 51.6 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for polysilicon is - 740 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 765 yuan/ton [2] - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton. The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2626 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 3364 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 71.6 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 925 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On the morning of August 11, a joint observation group composed of various bureaus and their functional departments in Wuhai City inspected the 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa undertaken by the Fourth Branch of China National Chemical Engineering No.16 Construction Company. The advanced management experience and clean construction environment were highly recognized [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

2025 年 08 月 15 日 合成橡胶：周内震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） | 11,645 | 11,750 | -105 -12028 | | | | | （手） | 68,153 | 80,181 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 23,673 | 26,557 | -2884 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 401,388 | 475,509 | -74121 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 155 | 50 | 105 | | | 月差 | B ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-15 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-08-15 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 7 月 PPI 超预期飙升，打击 9 月降息乐观情绪 观点分享： 美国劳工统计局公布，美国 7 月 PPI 同比涨幅从前月的 2.3%飙升至 3.3%，为今年 2 月 以来最高水平，远超预期的 2.5%；美国 7 月 PPI 环比 0.9%，为 2022 年 6 月以来最大涨幅， 预期 0.2%，前值 0%；7 月核心 PPI 同比 3.7%为 2 月以来最高水平，预期 3%，前值 2.6%， 核心 PPI 环比 0.9%，为 2022 年 4 月以来最大涨幅，预期 0.2%，前值 0%。早先公布的 7 月 CPI 数据均低于或符合预期，关税向下游的传导似乎较为温和，加上劳动力市场已开始降温， 市场普遍预计美联储将在 9 月会议上降息，贝森特甚至表示 9 月降息以 50 个基点为开端。然 而，在 PPI 报告公布后，交易员减少了 9 月降息的押注，加之美联储官员对"大幅降息"、" 仓促降息"的疑虑，市场甚至对 9 月会议降息 25 基点的信心也有 ...

2025年08月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：PPI超预期打压降息预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，价格承压 | 5 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡运行 | 12 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：行业库存小幅去化，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变动 | 18 | | 多晶硅：消息面扰动增加 | 18 | | 铁矿石：钢铁现实需求改善有限，高位回调 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：情绪回落，高位下修 | 25 | | 焦煤：情绪回落，高位下修 | 25 | | ...

2025年08月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：PPI超预期打压降息预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 15 日 黄金：PPI 超预期打压降息预期 白银：小幅回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基 ...

2025年08月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：行业库存小幅去化，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：消息面扰动增加 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 15 日 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,200 | -1,140 | -650 | 1,370 | 1,820 | -4,030 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After a period of oscillation, index futures still have support for a rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: On August 14, the closing prices of major indexes were as follows: CSI 300 at 4173.31 (down 0.08%), SSE 50 at 2829.47 (up 0.59%), CSI 500 at 6429.85 (down 1.20%), and CSI 1000 at 6976.49 (down 1.24%). The corresponding futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.07%, IH up 0.46%, IC down 1.11%, and IM down 1.02% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 26,975 lots, IH by 20,405 lots, IC by 5,277 lots, and IM by 36,064 lots. In terms of open interest, IF increased by 5,578 lots, IH by 3,248 lots, IC decreased by 9,652 lots, and IM decreased by 6,229 lots [2] 3.2 Index Futures Base Spread - The base spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends over a certain period, as shown in the corresponding base spread charts [4] 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - For different index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM), the top 20 members' long and short positions had various changes, including increases and decreases in different contracts [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6] - **Important Drivers**: The central bank plans to conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, and the total outright reverse repurchase in August has exceeded the roll - over amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the roll - over amount after the 300 - billion - yuan MLF matures this month. The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated as the US July PPI soared year - on - year and环比, and some Fed officials opposed a large - scale rate cut [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.46% at 3666.44 after breaking through 3700 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. A - share trading volume reached 2.31 trillion yuan, up from 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. Most stocks fell, and certain sectors showed different performance trends [6]