Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the sentiment of trade relaxation, US soybeans are strong while Dalian soybean meal is weak, and the soybean No.1 futures contract shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Trump urged China to increase US soybean purchases by 300%, and extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, which boosted the soybean market. Meanwhile, concerns about dry weather in the US Midwest and the adjustment of positions before the USDA supply - demand report also influenced the market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 4067 yuan/ton during the day session, down 26 yuan (-0.64%), and 4047 yuan/ton at night, down 16 yuan (-0.39%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3072 yuan/ton during the day, down 16 yuan (-0.52%), and 3064 yuan/ton at night, down 5 yuan (-0.16%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1010.25 cents/bu, up 23.75 cents (+2.41%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 289.9 dollars/short ton, up 4.9 dollars (+1.72%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton, flat to +10 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis had various levels and remained stable. In East China, the spot price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 2920 yuan/ton, flat. In South China, the spot price was 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton, flat to +10 yuan, and the basis also had different levels and remained stable [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.2 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 4.75 million tons per day on the day before. The inventory data was not available on the previous trading day, while it was 97.76 million tons per week on the day before [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - On August 11, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply higher, hitting a two - week high. Trump urged China to increase US soybean purchases by 300%, and extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Concerns about dry weather in the US Midwest and position adjustment before the USDA supply - demand report also affected the market. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 10 was 68%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main futures contracts during the day session on the report day [3].

2025 年 8 月 12 日 股指期货将震荡整理 碳酸锂、多晶硅、焦煤期货将震荡偏 强 铁矿石、原油、棕榈油期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银期 货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4114 和 4143 点，支撑位 4095 和 4076 点；IH2509 阻力位 2809 和 2828 点，支撑位 2777 和 2767 点；IC2509 阻力位 6350 和 6400 点，支撑位 6289 和 6254 点；IM250 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight sideways increase [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides updated fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, premiums, processing fees, and inventory levels in both the futures and spot markets [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,700, with a trading volume of 87,829 and an open interest of 215,510. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,615, and the LME注销仓单 ratio was 2.99%. The spreads and arbitrage costs also showed certain changes [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,182, with a trading volume of 172,884 and an open interest of 114,892. The spreads and arbitrage costs had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,135, with a trading volume of 1,008 and an open interest of 8,101. The spreads and other indicators changed as well [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,911.96. The aluminum ingot social inventory was 571,000 tons, and the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 48,300 tons. The import and export profits and losses, processing fees, and other data had different degrees of change [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi was 291. The prices of imported bauxite from different regions also had certain trends [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -166. The inventory of three locations totaled 31,345 [1]. Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the final decision is expected to be announced this fall [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Lead smelting production cuts support prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,885 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,003.5 dollars/ton, down 0.17% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 35,623 lots, an increase of 4,615 lots, and the trading volume of the LME lead was 5,355 lots, a decrease of 456 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 54,395 lots, a decrease of 4,728 lots, and the open interest of the LME lead was 151,551 lots, an increase of 354 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -31.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -658.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -642.44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.86 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,683 tons, an increase of 201 tons; the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, a decrease of 2,575 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - Investors are waiting for the US July CPI data on Tuesday to find clues on whether the Fed can restart interest rate cuts in September [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to reports that China hopes the US will relax export controls on high - bandwidth memory chips, stating that China opposes politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing science, technology, and economic and trade issues [1] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Operation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate strongly, with a trend strength of 1 on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs **A. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate** - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 80,560, the volume was 16,374, and the open interest was 148,084. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 81,000, the volume was 38,071, and the open interest was 317,676 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 19,389 hands [3] - **Basis**: The spot - 2509 basis was -6,060, and the spot - 2511 basis was -6,500 [3] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 840, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 [3] - **Downstream Consumption**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided [3] **B. Macro and Industry News** - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,567 yuan/ton, up 2,606 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 - 73,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, with little impact on its overall operations [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year - on - year. New forces' share was 21.4%, up 2 percentage points year - on - year, while Tesla's share was 4.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [5]

Report Title - Palm Oil: Supply and Demand in Producing Areas Are Both Strong, Focus on Buying at Low Levels; Soybean Oil: Lack of Drivers from US Soybeans, Pay Attention to Subsequent Domestic Purchases [2] Report Date - August 12, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the supply and demand in producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to buy at low levels; for soybean oil, there is a lack of drivers from US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent domestic purchases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 2.65%, night - session closing price was up 0.20%, with 567,374 lots traded (an increase of 125,153) and 299,985 lots held (a decrease of 5,729) [3] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.67%, night - session closing price was down 0.38%, with 164,012 lots traded (a decrease of 40,472) and 335,019 lots held (a decrease of 29,250) [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.15%, night - session closing price was up 0.33%, with 194,113 lots traded (an increase of 713) and 126,040 lots held (a decrease of 14,440) [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 3.06%, night - session closing price was down 0.27% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.91% [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The price was 8,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The price was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: The price was 1,060 dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 238 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 194 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 18 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The previous trading day was 370 yuan/ton, and the day before was 594 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: It was - 778 yuan/ton, compared with - 592 yuan/ton previously [3] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in July increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, and imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons [4] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [6] - Indonesia: Trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the DMO plan, aiming to lower prices, and the DMO level should be maintained at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out [6] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - Abiove: In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [7] - Secex: Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with an average daily export volume 27% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [7] - CCC: Canada exported 651,106 tons of rapeseed, 223,217 tons of rapeseed oil, and 459,023 tons of rapeseed meal in June 2025. As of June, the 2024/25 annual exports were 8.911907 million tons of rapeseed, 3.127944 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 5.369241 million tons of rapeseed meal [7] - APK - Inform: Lowered the forecast of Ukraine's soybean production this year to 5830,000 tons from the previous 6260,000 tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 1; soybean oil trend intensity was 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [9]

【现货消息】 短纤：PF 期货震荡偏强，现货方面工厂报价多维稳，福建局部优惠缩小，下游跟涨意愿低。期现及贸易 商基差报价略有走弱，部分基差报价：新拓 09+170，中磊 09+150，三房 09+160，逸达 09+140，华宏 09-20， 贸易商成交两极分化。今日半光 1.4D 主流重心维持在 6350~6700 区间。工厂销售相对偏淡，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：100%、500%、0%、50%、50%、50%、80%、30%、50%。 2025 年 08 月 12 日 短纤：短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 63 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for index futures is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On August 11, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has warmed up. The total positions of all types of index futures also increased [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and its Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4122.51, up 0.43%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4116, up 0.37% with a basis of - 6.51; IF2509 closed at 4104.8, up 0.43% with a basis of - 17.71; IF2512 closed at 4075.2, up 0.48% with a basis of - 47.31; IF2603 closed at 4044.6, up 0.56% with a basis of - 77.91 [1] - **SSE 50 and its Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2789.9, up 0.03%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2788.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 1.5; IH2509 closed at 2789.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 0.5; IH2512 closed at 2791, up 0.06% with a basis of 1.1; IH2603 closed at 2790.4, up 0.10% with a basis of 0.5 [1] - **CSI 500 and its Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6391.76, up 1.08%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6368.2, up 1.02% with a basis of - 23.56; IC2509 closed at 6298.8, up 1.07% with a basis of - 92.96; IC2512 closed at 6144.6, up 1.18% with a basis of - 247.16; IC2603 closed at 6006, up 1.20% with a basis of - 385.76 [1] - **CSI 1000 and its Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6943.94, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6925.6, up 1.56% with a basis of - 18.34; IM2509 closed at 6851.2, up 1.61% with a basis of - 92.74; IM2512 closed at 6663.8, up 1.72% with a basis of - 280.14; IM2603 closed at 6478.8, up 1.71% with a basis of - 465.14 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 29586 lots, IH increased by 9620 lots, IC increased by 23858 lots, and IM increased by 55757 lots [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF increased by 14212 lots, IH increased by 6800 lots, IC increased by 9202 lots, and IM increased by 25544 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, such as 623 lots for IF2508, 8267 lots for IF2509, etc. The short - position changes also differed, like 1360 lots for IF2508 [5] - For IH, the long - position changes included 557 lots for IH2508, 3754 lots for IH2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] - For IC, the long - position changes were - 549 lots for IC2508, 5137 lots for IC2509, etc. The short - position changes were also different [5] - For IM, the long - position changes were 1995 lots for IM2508, 11368 lots for IM2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Before the US CPI data, the market was cautious. The Nasdaq rose and then fell. Lithium mining stocks soared, and gold was under pressure. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. The market was active with more than 4000 stocks rising [6]

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 2025 年 8 月 12 日 沥青：跟随原油震荡为主 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,512 | 0.03% | 3,530 | 0.51% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,481 | 0.09% | 3,497 | 0.46% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 24,791 | (11,493) | 49,631 | (4,372) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 162,843 | 5,523 | 221,001 | (611) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 76670 | -1500 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the night - session of coking coal has risen, and attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to market information disturbances [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price is 9,000 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 662,196 lots and an open interest of 271,943 lots. Compared with previous periods, the closing price, trading volume, and open interest have changed significantly - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price is 52,985 yuan/ton, trading volume is 592,822 lots, and open interest is 139,739 lots [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is - 65 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short inter - period arbitrage is 55.0 yuan/ton - Polysilicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is - 2575.0 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Premium and Discount Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium and discount vary when benchmarked against different types, such as + 505 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530 - Polysilicon: The spot premium and discount when benchmarked against N - type recycled materials is - 5985 yuan/ton [1] - **Price and Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, and the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan is negative - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled materials is 47000 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 16.9 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: Social inventory is 54.7 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.0 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.7 million tons - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 23.3 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - Industrial silicon: The cost of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, and petroleum coke varies by region - Polysilicon: The prices of relevant raw materials such as trichlorosilane and silicon powder are provided [1] - **Photovoltaic Product Data**: - For polysilicon - related photovoltaic products, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with the profit data of related enterprises [1] Macro and Industry News - The first - phase project of Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone is in the final stage of construction. The project has a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan, with a planned two - phase implementation. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of industrial silicon and 50,000 tons of high - purity ferrosilicon, with an annual output value of 2.94 billion yuan [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view - The trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [3]