短纤：下方空间有限，短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：下方空间有限，短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 07 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2508 | 昨日 6298 | 前日 6286 | 变化 12 | PF08-09 | 昨日 -52 | 前日 -36 | 变化 -16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6350 | 6322 | 28 | PF09-10 | -64 | -88 | 24 | | | 短纤2510 | 6414 | 6410 | ব | PF基差 | 150 | 1 63 | -13 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 275136 | 264681 | 10455 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 500 | 6. 485 | 15 | | ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 07 日 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20650 | 70 | 1005 | 90 | ટર્ટ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20770 | ー | l | ー | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2622 | 57 | 14 | 24 | 237 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 92872 | -7124 | -32296 | -74965 | -55070 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | -1008 | -36426 | -47469 | 224937 | ୧813 | 电解 铝 | | LME铝3M成交量 | 25282 | 13080 | 10435 | 8764 | 14763 | LME注销仓单占比 | 3.04% | 0. 23% | -0. 06% | -0. 03% | -38. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductor products, but companies building factories in the US will be exempt. Apple will invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing, bringing its total US investment to $600 billion. Trump also ordered an additional 25% ad - valorem tax on Indian goods, which will take effect in 21 days, raising the total tariff rate on Indian goods to 50% [8]. - The soybean oil futures 09 contract has reached a 23 - month high. Due to the expected improvement in the balance sheet and relatively low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on soybean oil at low prices [9][10]. - The copper price has support, and the future fundamentals will play a major role. It is recommended to buy on dips unilaterally and pay attention to calendar spreads and domestic - foreign spreads [11]. - The asphalt shows a unilateral oscillation, with partial holding of reverse spreads and limited cracking rebound. It is necessary to closely monitor the subsequent demand changes [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1所长早读（Today's Highlights） 3.1.1观点分享（Viewpoints Sharing） - Trump's tariff policies on chips, semiconductors, and Indian goods [8]. 3.1.2所长首推（Top Recommendations） - **Soybean Oil**: With an expected improvement in the balance sheet and relatively low valuation, the soybean oil futures 09 contract has reached a 23 - month high. It is expected to remain strong until the price difference between soybean oil and other oils fully reflects the expected improvement in the soybean oil balance sheet. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on soybean oil at low prices [9][10]. - **Copper**: The price has support, and the future fundamentals will drive the price. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption in the domestic new energy and counter - cyclical industries, as well as overseas markets, is increasing. It is recommended to buy on dips unilaterally and pay attention to calendar spreads and domestic - foreign spreads [11]. - **Asphalt**: It shows a unilateral oscillation, with partial holding of reverse spreads and limited cracking rebound. The current contradictions in the fundamentals are mainly concentrated in weak demand and high social inventories. It is necessary to closely monitor the subsequent demand changes [12][13]. 3.2商品研究晨报（Commodity Research Morning Report） 3.2.1各品种分析（Analysis of Each Variety） - **Copper**: The dollar's decline supports the price. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption in the new energy and counter - cyclical industries is increasing. The trend intensity is 0 [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It shows an oscillatory upward trend. The trend intensity is 0 [24][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [27][28]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy**: For aluminum, it is necessary to pay attention to the height of inventory accumulation; alumina shows a short - term oscillation; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of all three are 0 [30][31][32]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel shows a narrow - range oscillation with intensified long - short game; stainless steel is dragged down by supply - demand reality, but the raw material cost limits the downside space. The trend intensities of both are 0 [33][34][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Chile's exports have rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is 0 [39][40][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment fermentation; polysilicon requires attention to today's market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [43][44][47]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows an oscillatory and repeated trend. The trend intensity is - 1 [49][50]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market shows a wait - and - see attitude with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of both are 0 [52][53][54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They show a strong - oscillatory trend due to sector sentiment resonance. The trend intensities of both are 1 [56][57][58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They show a strong - oscillatory trend. The trend intensities of both are 0 [59][60][62]. - **Log**: It shows an oscillatory and repeated trend. The trend intensity is 0 [63][64][66]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene faces increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has a low processing fee, an unexpected decline in load, and a rebound in the monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the warming of coal prices. It is recommended to go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [68][69][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Oscillating upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed analysis of the zinc market's fundamentals, including price, trading volume, open interest, premium/discount, inventory, and related product prices, as well as relevant news and trend strength [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, and LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 2,750 dollars/ton with -0.15% change [1] - **Trading Volume**: SHFE zinc main contract volume was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots, while LME zinc volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 94,254 lots, a decrease of 4,218 lots, and LME zinc open interest was 190,784 lots, an increase of 162 lots [1] - **Premium/Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -20 yuan/ton with no change, and LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -13.16 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.29 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil (tax - included) was 4,395 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,505 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,955 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base. Japan requests the US to correct the tariff implementation [2] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - LME lead inventory reduction supports lead prices [1] - The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness with high price indices, and investors are worried about stagflation risks affecting the Fed's policy path and dampening rate - cut expectations [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 0.61% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 65,019 lots, a decrease of 7,064 lots; the LME lead open interest was 150,024 lots, an increase of 584 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 41.92 dollars/ton, down 3.42 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 515.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.13 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the continuous third - month Shanghai lead contract was - 544.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.84 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 66,900 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 399 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, can select the Fed chair through vacant governor positions, and rules out Treasury Secretary Bessent as a candidate for Fed chair [2] - The US ISM services PMI shows weakness and high price indices, causing investors to worry about stagflation risks and affecting the Fed's policy path and rate - cut expectations [2] Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a fundamental tracking of eggs, including futures prices, price spreads, spot prices in different regions, and relevant industrial chain data, as well as the trend strength, but does not explicitly state a core view. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2509 is 3,378, with a daily increase of 0.99 and a trading volume decrease of 21,588 and an open - interest decrease of 19,320; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,624, with a daily decrease of 0.11, a trading volume decrease of 2,794, and an open - interest decrease of 1,128 [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The egg 9 - 10 spread is 93 on the latest day, compared to 78 the previous day; the egg 9 - 1 spread is - 246 on the latest day, compared to - 300 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In different regions, the latest day's spot prices of eggs in Liaoning and Shanxi are 2.90 yuan/jin, the price in Hebei is 2.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Hubei is 3.09 yuan/jin. The latest day's corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. [Trend Strength] The trend strength is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and the strength classification includes weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

2025 年 8 月 7 日 生猪：近端现货压力持续 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14080 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13450 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15540 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13810 | | -75 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 14010 | | 130 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 14310 | | 140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前 ...

2025 年 8 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,234 | 24 14 | 0.75 | | 期 货 | | 3,451 | | 0.41 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,202,766 | 1,652,569 | -56,263 | | | HC2510 | 561,631 | 1,460,175 | -1,559 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3370 | 33 ...

2025 年 8 月 7 日 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 69,260 | 1,580 | -1,340 | -120 | 5,600 | 2,040 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 103,705 | -69,442 | -689,204 | -1,230,454 | -109,599 | 90,659 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 161,898 | -13,368 | -110,855 | -200,156 | -1 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight upward trend today, with some prices rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures fluctuated slightly higher, boosting the spot market. Most enterprises kept their prices stable, and the cost support for the supply remained largely unchanged. Traders' attitudes remained stable, and they mainly adjusted their prices according to their inventory and costs. Some offers were tentatively raised. However, downstream industries were operating at a low level, and their purchasing was cautious, resulting in general market trading [2]. - The PP trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 was 7095, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume was 162,173, and the open interest decreased by 1671 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 09 contract was -95 (previous day: -94), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was -25 (previous day: -31) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price ranged from 6920 - 7060 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton; and in South China, it was 6960 - 7150 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight upward trend today, with some prices rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures had a small upward fluctuation, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Most enterprise prices were stable, and the cost support for the supply did not change much. Traders' attitudes remained stable, and they mainly adjusted their prices according to their inventory and costs. Some offers were tentatively raised. Downstream industries were operating at a low level, and their purchasing was cautious, resulting in general market trading [2]. Trend Intensity - The PP trend strength is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2].