2025 年 8 月 1 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,205 | -140 | -4.19 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,390 | -125 | -3.56 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,730,966 | 1,816,026 | -213,107 | | | HC2510 | 1,070,244 （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 1,433,936 （元/吨） 前日价格 | -139,278 （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3370 | 3440 | -70 | | | 杭州 螺 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent active weight - reduction by groups, combined with the limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season, has led to a rapid decline in spot prices, indicating that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may result in more concentrated slaughter, causing the spot to remain weak. With strong macro - sentiment support for the far - end, the market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 14,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,885 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2601 contract is 14,145 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 29,045 lots, a decrease of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,199 lots, a decrease of 7,850 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 17,372 lots, an increase of 4,950 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 50,621 lots, an increase of 625 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 16,801 lots, an increase of 2,798 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,215 lots, a decrease of 1,637 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is 255 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 620 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2601 contract is 185 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 645 yuan/ton. The spread between LH2509 and LH2511 is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 220 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2511 and LH2601 is - 260 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market is currently in a situation where groups are actively reducing weights, consumption is in the off - season, and downstream digestion is limited, leading to a weak spot market. The strong macro - sentiment supports the far - end, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit for the short - term LH2509 contract, with a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15,000 yuan/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 01 日 白糖：巴西压榨进度加快 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.35 | -0.11 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 138 | 0 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6030 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 44 | -2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5793 | -11 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 237 | -9 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西中南部压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 月出口 336 万吨，同比增加 5%。 中国 6 月进口食糖 42 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 11 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 1 日 苯乙烯：压缩利润 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,332 | 7,387 | -55 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,371 | 7,411 | -40 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -39 | -24 | -15 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -16 | 37 | -53 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 苯乙烯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and position data of different contracts, as well as raw material and lithium salt prices. It also presents macro and industry news, such as the decline in SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and production and shipment data of lithium mines [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 521,849 lots, down 271,060 lots; and its open interest was 229,368 lots, down 43,385 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 68,600 yuan, down 1,980 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 378,788 lots, down 78,470 lots; and its open interest was 195,732 lots, up 10,387 lots [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 5,545 lots, down 7,586 lots compared to T - 1 [3] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,720 yuan, up 1,370 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 320 yuan, up 20 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 766 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Decline**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,474 yuan/ton, down 1,384 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton [4] - **Lithium Mine Production and Shipment**: In 2025Q2, Mt Marion produced 124,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11% quarter - on - quarter decrease, and shipped 134,000 tons, a 3% quarter - on - quarter decrease. Wodgina produced 166,000 tons, a 32% quarter - on - quarter increase, and shipped 136,000 tons, a 17% quarter - on - quarter increase [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc market is continuing to accumulate inventory. The prices of both Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc futures have declined, with the Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price at 22345 yuan/ton, down 1.43%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price at 2795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68% [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price decreased by 1.43% to 22345 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 0.68% to 2795.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main - contract increased by 41252 to 182660 lots, while the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 701 to 8740 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main - contract decreased by 5764 to 110481 lots, and the LME zinc open interest increased by 1164 to 189911 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium increased by 10 to 0 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 1.23 to - 2.69 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 174 to 15058 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4250 to 104800 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US is increasing pressure as the tariff deadline approaches, with multiple countries sending delegations to Washington for negotiations. Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and plans to sign a new executive order on Thursday to impose higher tariffs on countries that fail to reach trade agreements [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook according to the defined range of [-2, 2] where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the egg market is weak, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,259 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.36% and a trading volume decrease of 1,695 and an open interest decrease of 11,879. The closing price of egg2510 is 3,298 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.96% and a trading volume increase of 36,432 and an open interest increase of 21,483 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -263, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is -39, compared to -299 and -82 of the previous day respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.93 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 3.71 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, down from 2,368 yuan/ton of the previous day. The soybean meal spot price is 2,890 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The live pig price in Henan is 14.33 yuan/kg, up from 13.93 yuan/kg of the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish outlook, and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report On July 31, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. The trading enthusiasm of investors has increased, with the total trading volume of each index futures rising. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. The trend intensities of IF, IH, IC, and IM are all 1 [1][2][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On July 31, all current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined: IF fell 1.68%, IH fell 1.42%, IC fell 1.26%, and IM fell 0.8% [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of IF increased by 18,165 lots, IH by 4,976 lots, IC by 14,305 lots, and IM by 36,495 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 3,716 lots, IH by 3,315 lots, IC by 2,760 lots, and IM increased by 1,767 lots [1][2]. b. Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions - For IF: In IF2508, long - positions decreased by 686 and short - positions by 1950; in IF2509, long - positions decreased by 4,695 and short - positions by 3,905; in IF2512, long - positions increased by 2,332 and short - positions by 2,681; in IF2603, long - positions increased by 268 and short - positions by 519 [5]. - For IH: In IH2508, long - positions decreased by 161 and short - positions by 600; in IH2509, long - positions decreased by 873 and short - positions by 1,372; in IH2512, long - positions decreased by 274 and short - positions by 165; IH2603 data was not released [5]. - For IC: In IC2508, long - positions decreased by 2,004 and short - positions by 1,928; in IC2509, long - positions increased by 912 and short - positions decreased by 1,078; in IC2512, long - positions increased by 696 and short - positions by 399; in IC2603, long - positions increased by 598 and short - positions by 713 [5]. - For IM: In IM2508, long - positions decreased by 2,083 and short - positions by 2,302; in IM2509, long - positions decreased by 564 and short - positions by 928; in IM2512, long - positions increased by 3,094 and short - positions by 2,320; IM2603 data was not released [5]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 representing the most bearish view [6]. d. A - share Market Review The A - share market declined in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed below the 10 - day moving average for the first time since regaining 3,400 points on June 24. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% to 3,573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.73%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, the North Securities 50 fell 1.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.01%, the Wind All - A fell 1.36%, the Wind A500 fell 1.89%, and the CSI A500 fell 1.75%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day. In July, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.14% [6].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend analysis [1]. Key Points 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is in a high - level game, and investors should wait for a callback opportunity; soybean oil is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,900 yuan/ton (down 0.91% in the day - session) and 8,868 yuan/ton (down 0.36% in the night - session); soybean oil主力 closed at 8,192 yuan/ton (down 0.58% in the day - session) and 8,198 yuan/ton in the night - session; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton (down 1.15% in the day - session) and 9,480 yuan/ton (down 0.32% in the night - session). The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed [1]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,530 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis and various spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were provided, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 610 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Export**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the previous month; AmSpec reported a 9.58% decrease to 1,163,216 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52/ton in July to $74/ton in August. The EU may give zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO exports annually when the free - trade agreement is approved [6]. - **Soybean - related News**: About 5% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of July 29, down from 8% the previous week. The 2025/26 US soybean production is estimated to be around 118 million tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from July 27 - August 2 are expected to be 2.5504 million tons, 0.3864 million tons, and 1.7742 million tons respectively. Ukraine's 2025 soybean production may decrease by over 1 million tons due to a 24% reduction in planting area [7][8]. - **Rapeseed News**: Kazakhstan's rapeseed exports in the first 10 months of the 2024/25 season (September - August) reached 117,900 tons, a three - fold increase from the previous year [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10].