2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，施压价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡走弱 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：情绪回落 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 LPG：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 丙烯：供需短期偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,992 | -1.36% | 4,008 | 0.40% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,396 | -1.61% | 4,426 | 0.68% | | | PL2601 | 6,570 | -1.31% | 6,566 | -0.06% | | | PL2602 | 6,644 | -0.91% | 6,636 | -0.12% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 106,659 | -3904 | 92,218 | 4307 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 27,555 | -1370 | 62,169 | 3269 | | | PL2601 | 6,292 | -337 ...

2025 年 07 月 29 日 豆粕：调整震荡 豆一：调整震荡 商 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4153 | +70（-1.66%） -43（-1.03%） 4140 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2990 | -35（-1.16%） 2977 -24（-0.80%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1011.5 | -10.25（-1.00%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 279.4 | n a -2.3（-0.82%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 较昨-20至持平； 2890～2910， M2509+0/+30/+50/+60， | 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平或-20或-10； 9月M2509+0， | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF rose 0.18%, IH rose 0.39%, IC rose 0.18%, and IM rose 0.11% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 547 lots, IH decreased by 870 lots, IC increased by 11,258 lots, and IM increased by 26,844 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 3,663 lots, IH decreased by 1,993 lots, IC increased by 3,134 lots, and IM increased by 11,728 lots [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4131.2, 4122, 4090.8, and 4057 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.16%, 0.11%, and 0.07%. The trading volumes were 23,316, 54,638, 10,792, and 4,247 respectively, and the position changes were +1,739, +1,331, +620, and +1,213 respectively [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2806, 2805.8, 2807.4, and 2809.6 respectively, with increases of 0.39%, 0.36%, 0.34%, and 0.34%. The trading volumes were 12,722, 28,883, 3,824, and 928 respectively, and the position changes were -1,590, +403, -111, and +111 respectively [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6274, 6222, 6091.4, and 5973 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.09%, 0.01%, and 0.00%. The trading volumes were 23,810, 46,353, 13,923, and 4,105 respectively, and the position changes were +504, +1,256, +655, and +719 respectively [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6674.6, 6602, 6419.4, and 6256.2 respectively, with increases of 0.11%, -0.04%, -0.03%, and -0.06%. The trading volumes were 39,355, 116,079, 24,230, and 6,593 respectively, and the position changes were +2,878, +73,550, +311, and +1,017 respectively [1]. 3.2期指前20大会员持仓增减 - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 1629, short - order increase was 1637; for IF2509, long - order increase was 2353, short - order increase was 586; for IF2512, long - order decrease was 387, short - order decrease was 632 [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long - order decrease was 1014, short - order decrease was 1318; for IH2509, long - order increase was 232, short - order decrease was 20; for IH2512, long - order decrease was 79, short - order increase was 335 [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 459, short - order increase was 8; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2181, short - order increase was 1272; for IC2512, long - order increase was 147, short - order increase was 413 [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 3017, short - order increase was 2265; for IM2509, long - order increase was 6181, short - order increase was 7275; for IM2512, long - order increase was 683, short - order increase was 623 [5]. 3.3 趋势强度 - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4 重要驱动 - On July 28, the China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, Sweden [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the child - rearing subsidy system and fertility support measures on July 30 [7]. - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments emphasized measures to consolidate the industrial economy, including implementing a new round of stable - growth actions in ten key industries, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, and continuing to maintain the stable development of the tobacco industry [7].

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铜：美元回升，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,000 | -0.32% | 79010 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,763 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,630 | -12,517 | 176,092 | -4,738 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,965 | 1,900 | 270,000 | -789 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 17,832 | 1,699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 127,400 | -1,075 | 13.56% | -1.11% | | | | | ...

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16915 | -0.24% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2020.5 | -0.12% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 72526 | 25763 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5355 | -734 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 70546 | -2781 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 141082 | -1210 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -50 | -15 | LM ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a weak - side oscillatory trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are anticipated to have a weak oscillatory trend as a result of the game between capital and reality [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have a wide - range oscillatory trend as market sentiment is realized [2][15] - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with an oscillatory trend as daily consumption recovers [2][18] - Logs are likely to have a repeated oscillatory trend [2][21] Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures was 786.0 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2.06%. The positions decreased by 39,554 hands. Among spot prices, the price of domestic ore in some regions increased, while imported ore decreased. Most of the price differences decreased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 futures decreased by 2.05% and 2.30% respectively. The positions of both decreased. Most of the spot prices and price differences changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products. In mid - July 2025, the production of key steel enterprises increased. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price differences showed various changes [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed changes. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon. In July, the operating rate and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in some regions increased [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased significantly. The positions decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the price differences also showed changes [15] - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were provided. On July 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index changed. The positions of coking coal and coke futures decreased [15][16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading. The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas were provided. The positions of the ZC2508 contract remained unchanged [18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed various changes. The prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak trend [24]

锡基本面数据 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 7 月 29 日 锡：区间震荡 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 267,880 | -1.38% | 267,310 | -0.51% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 33,670 | -1.38% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 99,762 | 32,826 | 31,508 | 20,158 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 ...

2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 6 | | 棉花：高基差和供应偏紧担忧继续支撑期价 | 7 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：强现实弱预期，趋势反套 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,946 | 0.11% | 8,924 | -0.25% | ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2509 | 5840 | -326 | 1,218,323 | 196,312 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2510 | 5832 | -324 | 102,425 | 40,125 | | | 锰 硅2509 | 6028 | -386 | 1,247,227 | 353,406 | | | 锰 硅2510 | 6032 | -366 | 57,825 | 22,912 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 蒙 | | 5500 | - | 元/吨 ...