Report Overview - Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the progress of production cuts and shutdowns in Jiangxi mines [2][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to today's sentiment change [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to today's market information [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,620 yuan, down 2,740 yuan from T - 1; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan, down 190 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 297,904 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 349,991 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than in 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped due to losses [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 73,120 yuan, down 7,400 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,005,395 lots. The spot - 2509 basis was 780 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,900 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; a national industrial and informatization meeting proposed to strengthen industry governance [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2509 closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan from T - 1; the PS2509 closing price was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1. The silicon factory profit in Xinjiang was - 1476 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit was - 17.9 yuan/kg [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The European solar market is expected to have a negative growth rate of - 1.4% in 2025 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, -1 indicates a weak or bearish trend, 0 indicates a neutral trend, and 1 indicates a bullish trend [10][15][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily and short - to - medium - term outlooks for multiple energy and chemical commodities. Many commodities are expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to factors such as the weakening of anti - involution sentiment, large - scale selling of speculative funds, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. Some commodities may enter a mid - term oscillatory pattern due to the ongoing anti - involution policy and supply - side optimization [11][20][57] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral trend is weakening. Suggest selling at high prices for hedging, going long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and shorting PXN at high levels. Future Asian PX supply is expected to gradually increase [11] - **PTA**: Unilateral trend turns weak. Industries can sell at high prices for hedging. Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts. The spot supply pressure continues to increase, and the basis is suitable for reverse arbitrage. Consider the 9 - 1 spread for positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: Short - term bearish. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts and the delivery pressure on the 09 contract. Consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long on L for arbitrage. The supply is relatively loose in the short term [12] Rubber - The rubber market is expected to be weak and oscillatory. The price is supported at the bottom due to high raw material prices caused by weather, but the downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the inventory in Qingdao port is slightly increasing [14][17] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is under oscillatory pressure. In the short term, it is expected to correct from a high level, and in the medium term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. Factors include the exit of speculative funds, the strengthening of the basis, and the support from the anti - involution policy and the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals [18][20] Asphalt - The asphalt market shows a pattern of strong crude oil and weak cracking spread. The overall trend is neutral. The domestic asphalt production has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [21][35] LLDPE - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate weakly. The anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry. The supply pressure will gradually increase in the third quarter, and the demand support is weak [36][37] PP - The PP market has seen a decline in spot prices and light trading. The trend is bearish. The futures market has affected the spot market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing confidence is insufficient [40][41] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market should focus on the delivery pressure. The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is still hope for demand in the peak season. It is currently in the off - season, with weak price - increasing power but strong cost support [43][45] Pulp - The pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory. The futures price has declined, and the spot market is stable but with poor trading. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [48][50] Glass - The glass market shows stable prices for the original sheets. The short - term trend is bearish. The spot price has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is active, but the futures price has declined significantly [52][53] Methanol - The methanol market is under short - term oscillatory pressure. In the short term, it is expected to correct from a high level, and in the medium term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. The anti - involution policy and supply - side factors support the market [55][57] Urea - The urea market is in short - term weak operation. In the short term, it is expected to correct from a high level, and in the medium term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. The anti - involution policy and potential second - batch exports may support the market [59][61] Styrene - The styrene market is focused on compressing profits. It is currently in a high - production, high - profit, and high - inventory pattern, and is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory is accelerating the accumulation [62][63] Soda Ash - The soda ash market shows little change in the spot market. The short - term trend is bearish. The spot price has increased slightly, and the supply has decreased, but the demand is average [64] PVC - The PVC market is short - term weak. The anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [66] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounded slightly, and the short - term trend may turn strong [70] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term price is rising, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [70] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions on the October contract and 10 - 12 spread reverse arbitrage. The index is oscillating weakly, and the price changes are affected by factors such as shipping company price adjustments and ship - schedule delays [72][77]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating indicates a downward trend, with a trend strength of -1 [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate and weaken [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Data - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,645 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 193,107 lots, an increase of 41,021 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 124,461 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 188,773 lots, a decrease of 1,902 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,546.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.31 yuan/ton [1] - The difference between ZN00 and ZN01 was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc's third - consecutive contract was -1,360.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.07 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 13,767 tons, an increase of 478 tons; LME Zinc's inventory was 115,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [1] - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,385 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME Zinc's cancelled warrants were 54,950 tons, an increase of 150 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 19,243 tons, a decrease of 2,712 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia on the Russia - Ukraine conflict to 10 - 12 days, causing crude oil to rise nearly 3% during the session [2] - Chile expects to obtain tariff exemptions from Trump, which caused New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the current situation of the lithium carbonate market, presenting detailed data on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including contract prices, trading volumes, open interest, and prices of various lithium-related products. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news and the trend strength of lithium carbonate [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 73,120 yuan, with a decrease of 7,400 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 198,029 lots; the open interest is 378,472 lots, a decrease of 112,616 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 71,420 yuan, a decrease of 7,740 yuan; the trading volume is 327,845 lots, an increase of 58,097 lots; the open interest is 168,736 lots, an increase of 728 lots [1]. - **Other Data**: The warehouse receipt volume is 12,276 lots, an increase of 280 lots. The basis of spot - 2509 is 780 yuan, and spot - 2511 is 2,480 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 805 US dollars, a decrease of 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,805 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 yuan, an increase of 1,000 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,737 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 991 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, improve industry governance, and strengthen the construction of mandatory national standards in the industrial and information technology fields [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 苯乙烯：压缩利润 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,330 | 7,387 | -57 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,360 | 7,602 | -242 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,358 | 7,587 | -229 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -30 | -215 | 185 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 2 | 15 | -13 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,248 3,397 | -68 -80 | -2.05 -2.30 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 3,414,713 | 1,935,881 | -62,771 | | | HC2510 | 1,255,676 | 1,481,167 | -73,396 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | （元/吨） 前日价格 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3430 | 3490 | -60 | | | 北京 | 3300 | 3360 | -60 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | 3440 | 3490 | -50 | | | 上海 | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions the negative growth forecast of the EU solar market in 2025, which poses risks to the 2030 target [3][4]. - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2509's closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan from T - 1; PS2509's closing price was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1 [3]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium/discount varied against different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) was - 4,525 yuan [3]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 46,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit was - 17.9 yuan/kg [3]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 53.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.3 million tons [3]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, and electrodes showed different changes [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The EU solar market is expected to have a - 1.4% annual growth rate in 2025, with an expected new solar installation of 64.2 GW, lower than 2024. The 2030 target may not be achieved, with an expected total solar PV installation of 723 GW, lower than the required 750 GW [4][5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - Industrial silicon's trend strength is 0 (neutral), and polysilicon's trend strength is 1 (slightly bullish) [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on peanut fundamentals, tracking prices, trading volumes, and trends, and notes that attention should be paid to weather in peanut - producing areas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Prices of various peanut varieties decreased, with辽宁308通货 at 8,600 yuan/ton (-200),河南白沙通货 at 8,760 yuan/ton (-200),兴城小日本 at 8,440 yuan/ton (-260), and苏丹精米 at 8,600 yuan/ton (-100) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,142 yuan/ton (0.05% daily increase), and PK511 at 8,034 yuan/ton (0.48% daily increase) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PK510 trading volume was 119,194 hands (increase of 91,625 hands), open interest was 101,662 hands (increase of 4,603 hands); PK511 trading volume was 44,296 hands (increase of 29,110 hands), open interest was 69,643 hands (decrease of 484 hands); peanut full - market trading volume was 170,315 hands (increase of 125,036 hands), open interest was 186,421 hands (increase of 5,422 hands) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Peanut full - market warehouse receipts were 0 hands with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**:辽宁308通货基差 was 458 yuan/ton,河南白沙通货基差 was 618 yuan/ton,兴城小日本基差 was 298 yuan/ton,苏丹精米基差 was 458 yuan/ton, and 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 108 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, remaining stocks are almost exhausted, trading is mainly from inventory, inquiries are few, and prices are determined by quality. Good - quality peanuts have firm prices, with prices in Baisha producing areas slightly weakening and those in large - peanut producing areas stable [2]. - In Jilin, 308 common rice is around 4.3 - 4.4. Raw material trading is ending, with sporadic supplies, normal inquiries, slightly weakening peanut prices, and stable peanut - fruit prices [2]. - In Liaoning, grass - roots raw material procurement has ended, trading is mainly from inventory. Quality varies greatly, prices are determined by quality, inquiries are few, and prices in most areas are slightly weakening [2]. - In Shandong, raw material procurement has ended, trading is mainly from cold - storage stocks. Most areas have little remaining inventory, and trading is in the final stage [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

2025 年 07 月 29 日 短纤：情绪回落，偏弱震荡波动放大 瓶片：情绪回落，偏弱震荡波动放大 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6458 | ୧୧୨୪ | -140 | PF08-09 | -24 | -8 | -16 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6482 | ୧୧୦୧ | -124 | PF09-10 | -50 | 36 | -86 | | | 短纤2510 | 6532 | 6570 | -38 | PF其差 | 128 | 54 | 74 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.610 | 6.660 | -50 | | | 短纤成 ...

(欧线):10空单、10-12反 2025 年 7月 29 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2. 183. 2 | -0. 89% | 2. 525 | 7. 369 | -989 | 0. 34 | 0. 28 | | | EC2510 | 1.502.8 | -1.84% | 56. 014 | 50. 694 | 717 | 1.10 | 0. 86 | | | EC2512 | 1.737.8 | 0. 41% | 6. 830 | 8.599 | 79 | 0.79 | 0.52 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/28 | | ...