1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The forced circulation quota exhaustion node could be a real support for the carbon price reversal, with the exhaustion expected in mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, due to slow release of forced circulation quotas and low trading willingness, the carbon price may remain volatile. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released and the price may rise [6] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - The main carbon trading targets showed weak trends, and market transactions were mainly through listing agreements [4] - For CEA, the main target barely closed in the positive territory, with 41.7 tons listed and 12.4 tons in bulk transactions [4] - For CCER, the listing agreement trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase [4][10] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market Details | Carbon Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (tons) | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Total Transaction Amount (ten thousand yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2232.13 | | CEA21 | 74.40 | 0.00% | 3.06 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 74.50 | 0.40% | 0.10 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 74.44 | - 0.25% | - 0.06 | 70.81 | 30.59 | 18.17 | 12.42 | 0.01 | | CEA24 | 74.51 | 0.01% | 0.07 | N/A | 23.49 | 23.49 | 0.00 | 1750.60 | [8][9] CCER Market Details - The average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase, the transaction amount was 13.11 ten thousand yuan, the trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 239.07 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply-demand remains tight, recommend rolling bull spreads; unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging [1][7] - PTA: Supply pressure gradually emerges, recommend basis bear spreads; unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract [1][8] - MEG: Short-term bearish [9] 2. Core Views - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign in China boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread widens, but future Asian supply will gradually increase [3][7] - PTA: With the reduction of polyester product inventory and the increase of开工率, the possibility of large-scale production reduction decreases, and attention should be paid to the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuation [8] - MEG: Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, coal-based device profit rebounds, and the enthusiasm for EO device to switch to EG production increases [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread reaches the highest level since June 30, and naphtha is under pressure [3] - MEG: Trend turns weak [4] Fundamental Data - PX: As of July 25, the operating rate of Chinese PX plants is about 79.9%, down from 81.1% the previous week [5] - MEG: Two Saudi ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO-EG co-production plants plan to switch from EO to EG [5] - Polyester: A 500,000-ton polyester device in Wuxi stops due to a fault, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [5] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, MEG: Trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [6] Views and Suggestions - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging. Future Asian supply will gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the operation of PTA devices [7] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract, and pay attention to the compression of PTA processing fees [8] - MEG: Short-term bearish. Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of devices [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fundamentals for the main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) suggest a strategy of short - selling at high prices. Hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and reduce positions and take profit on the 10 - 02 reverse spread. The market may experience a phased decline and return to rationality, with the trading perspective likely to focus more on the industry's own fundamental logic. Additionally, pay attention to the short - term emotional impact of China - US tariff negotiations on the market next week [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - In the past week, the container shipping index (European Line) oscillated at a high level. The main 2510 contract closed at 1527.5 points; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1720.2 points, and the 10 - 12 spread was reported at - 193 points [6] - For the futures contracts, EC2508 closed at 2,212.6 with a daily decline of 0.80%, EC2510 at 1,527.5 with a daily decline of 2.71%, and EC2512 at 1,720.2 with a daily decline of 1.56% [1] 3.2 Freight Rates - In the spot freight market, in early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, while Maersk's opening price drops by $100 - 200/FEU, and the average quote of the PA Alliance drops to around $3100/FEU. The freight rate has peaked in early August, with the average static quote in week 32 around $3360/FEU. Observe the rate of decline in the second half of August [7] - SCFIS: The European route was at 2,400.50 points with a weekly decline of 0.9%, and the US West route was at 1,301.81 points with a weekly increase of 2.8%. SCFI: The European route was at $2,090/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 0.5%, and the US West route was at $2,067/FEU with a bi - weekly decline of 3.5% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In August, the number of blank sailings increased by 1, but due to MSC's replacement of small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week. In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August's 321,000 TEU/week but higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week [8] - **Demand**: It is expected that the cargo volume in early August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, with Christmas orders likely to be shipped by early August. There is a high probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will occur in mid - to - late August. Observe the timing of the inflection point and the rate of decline [8] 3.4 Macro News - The Houthi rebels have upgraded their maritime blockade and will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israel. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish or weakly bearish outlook; asphalt has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; LPG has a trend intensity of 0, also neutral [2][9][14][17][20][34][38][41][46][50][54][58][61][66][70][78][84] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit structures. For most commodities, short - term trends are affected by factors like speculative capital flows, while medium - term trends are related to supply - side changes and policy expectations. For example, in the case of PX, although the short - term trend is weakening, the PXN spread has increased, and future Asian supply is expected to rise; for synthetic rubber and methanol, short - term high - level corrections are expected, followed by medium - term oscillations [6][10][19][56] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market sentiment is boosted by the "anti - involution" policy, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened. The domestic PX start - up rate is 79.9%, and the Asian overall start - up rate is 72.9%. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. The unilateral trend is weakening, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [6][10] - **PTA**: Supply pressure is gradually emerging. The PTA start - up rate remains at 79.7%. The unilateral trend is weakening, and the industry can hedge at high prices. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA in the 01 contract [10][11] - **MEG**: The trend is weakening. Saudi Arabian ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO - EG co - production plants plan to switch to EG production. Import volumes are expected to fluctuate, and the supply is relatively loose in the short term [8][12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The macro atmosphere is bullish, but the supply is affected by rainfall and geopolitical conflicts. The Shanghai market full - latex and Thai mixed rubber prices are expected to move within certain ranges [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term correction and a medium - term oscillation. The short - term correction is due to the outflow of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, while the medium - term oscillation is supported by policies, the stabilization of raw material prices, and the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals [17][19] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to have a slow shipment and oscillate repeatedly. The domestic weekly production has decreased, and both factory and social inventories have decreased. The trend intensity is neutral [20][33] LLDPE, PP, and PVC - **LLDPE**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The market price has mostly increased, but downstream demand is weak. The supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry [34][35] - **PP**: The spot price has a small increase, but the transaction is light. The futures price has boosted the spot market, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and the inventory pressure remains [38][39] - **PVC**: It is expected to be weak in the short term. The market is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and the anti - involution policy has little impact. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [78][79] Other Commodities - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The import volume from the United States has decreased, but it is compensated by imports from other countries and domestic production. The supply is in a high - inventory state, and the demand is weak [46][48][49] - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has driven the spot market, and the enterprise inventory has decreased [50][51] - **Methanol and Urea**: Both are expected to have short - term corrections and medium - term oscillations. The short - term correction is due to the outflow of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, while the medium - term oscillation is supported by policies and supply - demand factors [54][56][58][60] - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene has a weak oscillation, and styrene has a large inventory pressure and is recommended as a short - position allocation. The supply of benzene is increasing, and the supply of styrene is increasing while demand is decreasing [2][61][62] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic market is oscillating strongly, with enterprises raising prices and downstream demand being stable [64][66] - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has high chemical demand and relatively resistant prices; propylene has a short - term weak supply - demand relationship [69][70] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil continues to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a small decline, with the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remaining stable for the time being [84] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to short at high levels for the 10 - contract and hold the 10 - 12 spread reversal position. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal futures adjusted and fluctuated. Dalian soybeans also adjusted and fluctuated [1]. - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to trade uncertainties and concerns about export demand. The export sales data on Thursday was at the lower end of market estimates, and favorable weather in the US Midwest boosted soybean production prospects, putting pressure on soybean prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4224 yuan/ton during the day session, up 18 yuan (+0.43%), and at 4208 yuan/ton during the night session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3021 yuan/ton during the day session, down 20 yuan (-0.66%), and at 3007 yuan/ton during the night session, down 18 yuan (-0.60%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1021.75 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.32%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 281.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was 2900 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan to unchanged compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or unchanged; in South China, it was 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.15 million tons/day, compared with 20.15 million tons/day in the previous two trading days; the inventory was not available, compared with 90.83 million tons/week in the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were trying to build positions before the August 1 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration, but were reluctant to significantly adjust their trading patterns due to ongoing Sino - US negotiations. The EU and the US may reach a trade framework agreement this weekend. Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to experience high-level oscillations, alumina will see intense multi - short battles, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Aluminum and Alumina Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,760 yuan, up 250 yuan from a week ago and 1,075 yuan from three months ago. The trading volume is 143,571 lots, a decrease of 1778 lots from the previous day. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,646 US dollars, up 8 US dollars from the previous day and 278 US dollars from three months ago [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,428 yuan, up 295 yuan from a week ago. The trading volume is 905,021 lots, an increase of 118,451 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 494,000 tons, up 23,000 tons from a week ago. The Shanghai bonded area premium is 113 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The domestic average price of alumina is 3,255 yuan, up 18 yuan from a month ago. The alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 399 US dollars per ton, up 5 US dollars from a week ago [1] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to 4.3%. The profit of the automobile industry increased by 96.8%, and the profits of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and computer整机 manufacturing increased by 160.0% and 97.2% respectively [3] - Trump believes that Powell will start to suggest interest rate cuts and that US manufacturers benefit from a weaker dollar [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0 (neutral), alumina is - 1 (weakly bearish), and aluminum alloy is 0 (neutral) [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, including WTI9, Brent 9 - month, and SC2509. It also covers various geopolitical events, OPEC - related news, and US - related policies that may impact the crude oil market. The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $0.87 per barrel, a 1.32% decline, at $65.16 per barrel; Brent 9 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.74 per barrel, a 1.07% decline, at $68.44 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 6.70 yuan per barrel, a 1.32% decline, at 501.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said Israel may target Iran's Supreme Leader in the future [1]. - At least 8 people were killed in an attack in southeastern Iran. There was also a terrorist attack on a judicial building in Zahedan, Iran, with unclear casualty figures [1]. - Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad discussed the Iranian nuclear issue and the Gaza situation with Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi, and Qatar will continue diplomatic efforts [1]. OPEC - Related News - OPEC clarified that the JMMC meeting on July 28 has no decision - making power on production levels, only for monitoring compliance and reviewing the market [1]. - An OPEC + senior official said that only an eight - country group can decide when to exit voluntary production cuts and the September production policy [1]. Speculative Positions - Last week, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures on the ICE decreased by 11,352 contracts to 227,393 contracts, while the speculative net long positions in gasoline futures increased by 8,012 contracts to 98,180 contracts [1]. US - Related Policies - The US to July 25 week's total number of oil drilling rigs decreased from the previous value of 422 to 415 [1]. - US President Trump is considering secondary sanctions against Russia [1]. - The US will not extend the August 1 tariff - increase deadline, and the goal of Trump's negotiation with the EU is to open the EU market for US exports [1][2].

2025 年 07 月 28 日 铜：国内库存减少，限制价格下跌 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 宏观方面，特朗普称与欧盟达协议可能五成，后改口称或可达成，预计多数协议 8 月前完成，加拿大在 最后期限前达成新协议的可能性不大。（华尔街见闻） 美国 6 月耐用品订单环比初值-9.3%，创疫情以来最大月度跌幅，飞机订单拖累。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，盎格鲁亚洲矿业有限公司宣布，该公司旗下位于阿塞拜疆卡拉巴赫经济区的 Demirli 铜矿 开始试生产，预计产量将在今年年底前增加，2025 年铜精矿产量为 4,000 吨。（SMM） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,250 | -0.80% | 78800 | -0.57% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,796 | -0.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 鸡蛋：现货驱动减弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2508 | 3,522 | -1.57 | -31 | -4,416 | | | 鸡蛋2510 | 3,411 | 0.41 | -3,693 | 204 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋8-9价差 | | -106 | | -74 | | | 鸡蛋8-10价差 | | 111 | | 163 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.18 | | 3.18 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.73 | | 3.73 | | | | | 最新日 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a bullish and volatile market due to sector-wide market resonance [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is rated as 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,356 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.32%); trading volume was 2,878,137 lots, and open interest was 1,998,652 lots, an increase of 92,300 lots. For hot-rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,507 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton (1.98%); trading volume was 995,111 lots, and open interest was 1,554,563 lots, an increase of 46,781 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50, 40, 30, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 30, 30, 30, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 21 yuan/ton to -7 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to -43 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 5 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (July 24)**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 3.65 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 1.22 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.62 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.25 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.16 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 8.55 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 million tons [2] - **Mid - July Steel Production Data (2025)**: Key steel enterprises produced 2,141 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 214.1 million tons (a 2.1% daily increase); 1,944 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194.4 million tons (a 0.6% daily increase); and 2,080 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208.0 million tons (a 4.6% daily increase) [3] - **Policy News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair pricing practices [3]