Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to have a bullish and volatile trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a bullish and volatile trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to show a strong trend, affected by energy consumption, carbon emissions information, and industry "involution" information respectively [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized [2][14]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with a volatile trend as daily consumption recovers [18]. - Logs are likely to have a fluctuating and repeated trend [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (-1.05%). Imported and most domestic spot prices decreased. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China" [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 increased, with trading volume and open interest rising. Spot prices in major regions also increased. Some basis and spread values changed [6]. - **News**: Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased significantly. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose by 20 yuan/ton. Various price differences changed [11]. - **News**: Iron alloy online reported price ranges of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and manganese ore inventory increased [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume and open interest of coking coal and coke changed. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke varieties increased. Basis and spread values also changed [14]. - **News**: There were price changes in northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index. Regarding open interest, for coking coal JM2509, long positions increased by 33,862 lots and short positions increased by 38,709 lots; for coke J2509, long positions decreased by 1,156 lots and short positions decreased by 130 lots [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's ZC2507 contract had no trading. Southern port and domestic production area prices were provided. Open interest of the ZC2507 contract had no change [19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of log contracts increased slightly, while trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, with some showing small changes [23]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25].

2025年07月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 | | | 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕调整震荡 | 5 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 9 | | 棉花：注意短期市场情绪变化的影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：现货驱动减弱 | 12 | | 生猪：强现实弱预期，结构切换至趋势反套 | 13 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,936 | -1.85% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market continued to rise. The cyclical sectors driven by the expectation of supply - side reform, such as building materials, steel, and coal, led the gains, pushing the index back to 3600 points [2]. - This week, due to the exchange's restrictive measures after the short - term rally, the commodity market may enter a wide - range shock period, and the strong performance of cyclical sectors may take a break. If there is no new strong sector, the short - term index may turn to a shock trend. However, as long as there is no overall negative news, the bullish pattern of the stock market is expected to continue, but it needs to consolidate at the 3600 - point level [2]. - Pay attention to the Politburo meeting before the end of July for the policy tone on the second - half economic work, especially the statements on supply - side policies and demand - side policies after the recent price increases. Also, focus on the China - US - Sweden negotiations, non - Chinese tariff negotiations, and China's July PMI data [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most sectors of the CSI 300 index rose, with energy, materials, and industry sectors leading the gains, while telecommunications, utilities, and finance sectors declined. Most sectors of the CSI 500 index also rose, with energy, raw materials, and industry sectors having significant increases [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase, and also the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [11][15][19]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - The TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.38 times, 13.38 times, 11.38 times, 27.66 times, and 36.02 times respectively [22][23]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented in relevant charts. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [26]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. 4.2 Trend Strategy - Buy on dips. The core operating ranges of the main contracts IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 are expected to be between 3999 - 4205 points, 2726 - 2852 points, 6073 - 6480 points, and 6435 - 6868 points respectively [4]. 4.3 Cross - variety Strategy - Adopt the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：关注"反内卷"宏观情绪是否确认拐点，预计有一定溢价挤 出 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝主力合约在接近21000关口附近位置，尝试突破再次未果，且逐渐呈现出触顶回落的温和迹象，叠加周五夜晚此 前"反内卷"收益品种的集体跌落，或可逐步去探这波国内宏观情绪的拐点。 ◆ 我们倾向于看铝价在7、8月有一定溢价空间的挤出，但是回调的深度不深，核心还是基于此波累库的高度并不看高。近 期出口需求看，基于小样本调研，下游铝加工材如汽车用板材对美的出口受6月关税及近期比价的不利影响，比较承压； 但对非美区域的专材出口，依然稳健，不过比价条件也影响部分利润。 ◆ 当前周频的微观基本面来看，本周SMM华东现货升水回落，截至本周五降至升水10元/吨；截至7月24日，铝锭社 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market faces a conflict between macro and industrial factors, leading to intensified long - short game. The iron ore market experiences a redistribution of raw material profits, causing the ore price to decline under pressure. The coal - coke market shows wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized. The ferroalloy market also sees intensified game due to emotional impacts on the market [3][6][79][132]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel Views - **Logic**: There is a conflict between macro and industrial factors, intensifying the long - short game. Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement the same. The overseas macro situation is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere in the coal - coke market is strong. The exchange has issued risk warnings and restricted positions, cooling down short - term supply - side trading. The demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [6][8]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data**: - Iron water production is 242.2 (- 0.2) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons. - Scrap steel production is 46.5 (- 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons. - For rebar, supply is 212.0 (+ 2.9) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 tons; demand is 216.6 (+ 10.4) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.4 tons; inventory is 538.6 (- 4.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 221.6 tons. - For hot - rolled coils, supply is 317.5 (- 3.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.7 tons; demand is 315.2 (- 8.5) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons; inventory is 345.2 (+ 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85.0 tons [7]. 2. Iron Ore Views - **Logic**: Overseas shipments increased month - on - month driven by Brazil, and the destocking trend at domestic ports has temporarily stopped. Downstream construction remains at a high level, and there is still support for immediate consumption demand. The "anti - involution" theme continues to ferment, and the expectation of price intervention in multiple industries is strengthening. The iron ore futures price has corrected from its high level because it is at a disadvantage in profit distribution in this round of the market [81]. - **Supply Data**: - Global iron ore shipments are 3109.1 (+ 122.0) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 199.0 tons. - Australian shipments are 1571.2 (- 116.7) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 102.4 tons. - Brazilian shipments are 907.8 (+ 97.4) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 198.9 tons [80]. - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 09 contract has fallen from its high, closing at 802.0 yuan/ton. The position is 529,000 lots, a decrease of 164,000 lots. The average daily trading volume is 519,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 135,000 lots [83]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remains relatively strong. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) has increased from 870 to 878 yuan/ton [87]. 3. Coal - Coke Views - **Supply**: There are expectations of supply contraction. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong have resumed production, but some in other areas have reduced production, resulting in a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal production decreased by 2.27 tons week - on - week to 1225.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [134]. - **Demand**: Intermediate links are active, and there is a situation of short supply. Stimulated by policies, the black market has risen continuously, boosting the sentiment of the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coke enterprises and traders are actively purchasing [134]. - **Inventory**: The transfer of inventory rights from top to bottom is smooth. Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while downstream coke enterprises' raw material inventories have increased slightly. The sample coke enterprise raw material coal inventory increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [134]. 4. Ferroalloy Views No detailed content provided in the given text.

2025年07月27日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 | 2 | | 豆粕：关注中美经贸会谈，盘面震荡 | 7 | | 豆一：基本面稳定，关注技术面波动 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理，内强外弱 | 13 | | 棉花：预计维持震荡偏强走势 | 20 | | 生猪：强预期弱现实，关注路径变化 | 27 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位，但基本面缺乏强驱动，没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接，印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲，棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 豆油：中美贸易谈判临近，豆系紧张情绪抬头， ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 01 黄金：短期继续看回落 白银：上行空间基本饱和 02 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 03 传统淡旺季特征弱化，短期偏震荡 04 内外盘联动，短期震荡中期仍偏空 05 铅：消费旺季逐步来临，将支撑价格 金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - **Reality**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - **Supply - demand**: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - **后市观点**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - **后市观点**: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - **后市观点**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movements**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - **Market Outlook**: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].