1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production, declining export data, and growing pressure on inventory accumulation, coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas and the gradual realization of high - yield expectations, the supply pressure is significant, causing the oils to face downward pressure and oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8946.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8120.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan or - 0.29%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9406.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 51.00 yuan or - 0.54% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8920.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan or - 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 26.00, a change of - 50.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 110.00, a change of - 6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9500.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan or - 0.63%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 94.00, a change of - 9.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Palm oil: From July 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 was 684308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 9.55 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [2] - Soybean oil: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 108.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week [2] - Import prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1183 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 583 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 573 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (August shipment) was 452 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 471 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 224 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (August shipment) was 197 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 262 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector in the early stage was the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants accounted for 16% in pure benzene and 6% in styrene, especially in BZ. However, with the decline in coking coal prices, the atmosphere in the chemical sector weakened, leading to price corrections in BZ and EB. - At the beginning of the week, BZ port inventory continued to consolidate without further accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ was acceptable, but port inventory pressure and the pressure of shipments from South Korea to China still existed. - For styrene, port inventory continued to rise at the beginning of the week, with the inventory accumulation rate unchanged. The EB port basis remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. The domestic EB operation rate was still at a relatively high level. The operation rates of the three major hard plastics increased, the PS inventory pressure continued to ease, while ABS still had inventory pressure. The fundamentals of styrene were weaker than those of pure benzene [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene was - 221 yuan/ton (+71), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene was 12 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the EB port basis remained weak with the inter - period spread continuing to weaken [2][3]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee was 185 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee was 170 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread was 106.0 dollars/ton (-13.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid changed, with caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+165), phenol - acetone at - 667 yuan/ton (+25), and adipic acid at - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit was - 168 yuan/ton (-122 yuan/ton) and was expected to gradually compress. The production profits of downstream hard plastics EPS, PS, and ABS increased, with EPS at 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton), PS at - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton), and ABS at 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton) [2]. 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operation rate information was not clearly summarized in the given text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), the East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [2]. 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02%), and the production profit was 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton). - PS: The operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00%), and the production profit was - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton). - ABS: The operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92%), and the production profit was 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton). The downstream operation was at a seasonal low [2]. 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83%), and the production profit was - 1830 yuan/ton (+165). - Phenol: The operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00%), and the production profit of phenol - acetone was - 667 yuan/ton (+25). - Aniline: The operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77%), and the production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16). - Adipic acid: The operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00%), and the production profit was - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and distant - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high; conduct reverse arbitrage for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread. - Cross - variety: Short the EB - BZ spread when the spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon in the short - term with interval operation; no specific rating for industrial silicon but mentioned reasonable valuation and subsequent wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Inter - period: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Inter - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, on July 28, 2025, the futures price hit the daily limit down. The fundamental situation is average, with some resumption of production on the supply side and a decrease in the start - up of organosilicon on the consumption side due to an accident at a large factory. The price followed the overall commodity sentiment decline. The current valuation is relatively reasonable, and the subsequent disk will oscillate widely [1][2] - For polysilicon, on July 28, 2025, the futures main contract fluctuated widely. It is mainly affected by policy disturbances. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry is still in progress. The short - term anti - involution policy has cooled the sentiment, leading to a short - term callback in the futures disk. The full cost including tax on the disk may be the main support level. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions on dips [4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of - 775 yuan/ton (- 8.00%) compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. The position of the main contract was 279068 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50113 lots, a change of 403 lots compared with the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The prices in most regions decreased, while those in Sichuan and 97 - silicon remained stable. The price of organosilicon DMC remained unchanged, the market supply shrank, and manufacturers' willingness to support prices increased significantly [1] Polysilicon - On July 28, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 48000 yuan/ton and closed at 49405 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 5.84% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136295 lots (155168 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 581460 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon and silicon wafers both increased [4] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers of different specifications had small fluctuations. The prices of battery cells of different types and components of different specifications remained basically stable [4][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are average. The supply side has some resumption of production, and the consumption side has a decrease in the start - up of organosilicon. The price follows the overall commodity sentiment decline. The subsequent disk will oscillate widely [2] Polysilicon - Short - term interval operation. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions on dips. Pay attention to the progress and actual implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The short-term contradiction in the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the stabilization signal of the high-sulfur structure. The crude oil price maintains an oscillating trend, with a strengthening sign at night, but it has limited guidance on the short-term direction of fuel oil. The FU and LU markets oscillate narrowly, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently, with continuous adjustment of the market structure, a significant decline in crack spreads from high levels, relatively abundant supply at the spot end, and high inventory levels. The supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the market is expected to get some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely subsided in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently, with an increase in Brazilian tanker arrivals and the resumption of Kuwaiti exports, but the overall supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.9% at 2,869 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,545 yuan/ton [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, recent shipments from Russia and Iran have increased, demand lacks highlights except for power plant seasonal procurement, and refinery demand shows no sign of large-scale improvement. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian tanker arrivals have increased and Kuwaiti exports have resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited, and there is no obvious contradiction in the Asia-Pacific spot market. The remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in shipping will suppress the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting FU crack spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately liquidated for profit [3] - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually liquidated for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently experiencing a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, the price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 23.42 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16775 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10525 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the day, the Shanghai lead futures showed a weak and volatile trend. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16960 yuan/ton and closed at 16915 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 72526 lots, a change of 25763 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest for the whole trading day was 70546 lots, a change of - 2781 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17085 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16985 yuan/ton and closed at 16945 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On July 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 7.2 million tons, a change of 0.03 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 28, the LME lead inventory was 263650 tons, a change of - 3050 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The copper market is currently in a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, so the price is unlikely to show strong performance. Given the tight supply at the mine end, the possibility of a significant decline in copper prices is also limited. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and the operation is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,180 yuan/ton and closed at 79,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,130 yuan/ton and closed at 79,010 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remains weak. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 78,950 - 79,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 140 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, and an average premium of 95 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan drop from the previous day. The Contango structure has narrowed to C40 - C20 yuan/ton. The market shows three characteristics: increased domestic and imported arrivals, significant regional differentiation, and tight supply of wet - process copper with a narrowing price difference between non - standard and standard products. It is expected that the downward space of the spot premium will narrow [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment company to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury has significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties, but they are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is coming up, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [3]. - **Mine End**: First Quantum Minerals is still in negotiation with the Panama government and pays $15 million per month to maintain the shut - down Cobre copper mine, expected to increase to $17 - 18 million by the end of the year. Teck Resources' board has approved a C$2.1 - 2.4 billion ($1.6 - 1.8 billion) expansion project for the Highland Valley copper mine, which will extend its operation to the mid - 2040s, with an average annual output of 137,000 tons of copper [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: A new wave of senior executive departures at Trafigura Group is pressuring its stock - repurchase commitment. The company has postponed about 30% of the stock repurchases originally planned for this year, and the market is worried about potential delays next year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the refined copper rod industry has dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, lower than expected. The high copper price has suppressed terminal demand, leading to a "raw - material increase, finished - product accumulation" inventory pattern. The operating rate of the copper cable industry has dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, with the largest year - on - year decline of 15.28 percentage points. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts have changed by 3,700 tons to 127,400 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts have changed by 1,699 tons to 17,832 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory is 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week. Last week, LME copper inventory continued to accumulate to 128,475 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons, international copper inventory remained stable at 11,616 tons, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to 248,635 tons [7][8]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and it is recommended to buy hedges on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [9]. - **Options**: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9]. Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium of SMM1 copper is 95 yuan, premium copper is 120 yuan, flat - water copper is 65 yuan, and wet - process copper is 5 yuan on July 29, 2025. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 127,400 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 225,558 tons. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 17,832 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 14.67%. - **Arbitrage**: The spread of CU10 - CU08 is - 40, CU09 - CU08 is 0, CU09/AL09 is 3.83, CU0/ZN09 is 3.49, the import profit is - 342 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) is 8.09 [29][30][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unmentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The decline in coking coal prices led to a callback in EG prices. The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China decreased slightly last week. The actual arrivals at the main ports were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value. This week, the planned arrivals are 156,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is at a relatively high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of weakening fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, focusing on macro - sentiment changes, especially the Sino - US tariff policy changes during July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 58 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread - Unmentioned in the text about specific data, only a figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is provided [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price - increase effect, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, significantly alleviating the filament inventory pressure. The polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 156,000 tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes [1][3] - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate top probably reached [3] - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [4] - The December contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation [4] - The strategy includes a fluctuating main contract for the unilateral approach, and for the arbitrage, go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes from different shipping companies show some price adjustments. For example, Maersk's prices decreased from Week 31 to Week 32, and some companies' August upper - half - month quotes changed [1] - Geopolitical situation in the Gaza region may impact shipping, with ongoing military actions and discussions about a possible cease - fire [1] 2. Shipping Capacity - China - Europe base port's August monthly average weekly shipping capacity is 303,200 TEU, and September's is 289,800 TEU. There are changes in weekly capacity and additional vessels in Maersk [2] - In August, there were 4 empty sailings from the OA alliance and 5 TBNs; in September, there are 3 TBNs [2] 3. Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in high - level fluctuations. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and the final settlement price may be around 2200 points [3] - October contract: It is a seasonal contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the October price is 20% - 30% lower than August's [4] - December contract: The freight rate is usually higher in December due to Western holidays and shipping companies' strategies. The risk is the resumption of the Suez Canal [4] 4. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 28, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 77,192 lots, and the daily trading volume is 70,845 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [5] - SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes [5] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates [6] - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] 6. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU have been delivered [5] - Details of ships in different capacity ranges (12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU) delivered are provided [5]

Report Overview - There is no information about the industry investment rating [1][3][46][47] Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on upstream prices, covering production and service industries, and also provides an overview of industry data and trends [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Events - In the production industry, the National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments emphasized consolidating the effectiveness of comprehensive rectification of the "involution-style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, strengthening governance of key industries such as photovoltaics, and promoting the construction of a mandatory national standard system in the industrial and information technology fields [1] - In the service industry, the national childcare subsidy system implementation plan was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with one, two, or three children can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child until the child reaches the age of 3 [1] Industry Data - **Upstream**: International oil prices fluctuated and declined; egg prices rose slightly; glass prices increased [3][47] - **Midstream**: The PX operating rate decreased [3] - **Downstream**: The sales volume of commercial housing in third-tier cities remained at a low level; the number of domestic flights during the summer increased [3] Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 60.41 last week to 58.97 this week; the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 39.96 last week to 38.75 this week [46] Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various industries also showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2,332.9 yuan/ton on July 28, with a year-on-year change of 0.00%; the spot price of eggs was 6.8 yuan/kg on July 28, with a year-on-year increase of 3.82% [47]