石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-30 市场利好有限，现货成交清淡 市场分析 1、7月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3619元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨28元/吨，涨幅 0.8%；持仓141786手，环比下降20677手，成交208854手，环比下降16037手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3870—4086元/吨；山东，3610—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3590元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日原油价格走强，带动BU盘面反弹，但整体未脱离区间运行的状态，中期可能面临来自油市基本面转弱的压力。 现货方面，昨日山东以及川渝市场沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主，整体市场情绪 偏谨慎。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍，不过库存仍处于 低位，还未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期压力有限，但上行驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel**: The recent market sentiment for refined nickel has cooled, and the supply surplus situation persists. The medium - to long - term strong support level for Shanghai nickel is estimated to be around 117,000 yuan/ton, and the short - term trading range is expected to be between 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton (lower limit) and 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton (upper limit) [2][3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market shows a relatively strong oscillation. The short - term pressure level is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the medium - to long - term strong support level is estimated to be around 12,400 yuan/ton. The short - term trading range is expected to be between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton (lower limit) and 13,100 yuan/ton (upper limit) [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Market Analysis** - On July 29, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,910 yuan/ton and closed at 121,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.85% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 119,935 lots, and the open interest was 91,177 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel continued its weak oscillation. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. The spot market prices of mainstream brands, including Jinchuan nickel, decreased. The supply surplus situation in the refined nickel market remains unchanged, and the spot price provides support for the futures price. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,880 (- 73.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,912 ( + 876) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term trading should focus on range operations. For single - side trading, range operations are the main strategy, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Analysis** - On July 29, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,935 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,761 lots, and the open interest was 103,270 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel showed a relatively strong oscillation. The trading volume of the 09 contract decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the resistance above 13,100 yuan/ton was evident. In the spot market, most merchants' quotes in the Foshan market were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. The nickel - iron market price decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. - **Strategy** - Short - term trading should focus on range operations. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of coking coal on the coal chemical industry has diminished, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of methanol itself. The overseas methanol operation remains at a high level, and there is still significant pressure on future arrivals. The maintenance plan for MTO units has not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of future implementation. It is still a period of slight inventory accumulation, and the port basis will maintain a weak consolidation. In the inland area, coal - based methanol has undergone concentrated maintenance but will gradually resume in early August. Among traditional downstream industries, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, while the operation of MTBE and acetic acid still shows some resilience, and the inland demand remains strong. The inventory of inland methanol factories has decreased again, and the inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA01 - 05, MA05 - 09, MA09 - 01). The data sources for these figures are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are provided for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][31]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated plants). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [34][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [38][44][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period price difference is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Do narrowing spreads when the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread is high [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]

Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$1.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton [1] - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,645 yuan/ton and closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 127,217 lots, and the open interest was 117,616 lots. The highest price was 22,725 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,580 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, a change of -3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the spot market, the spot premium is overall. The import ore TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. Domestic smelting profits remain high, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Smelters' raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for the ore end [4] - On the consumption side, the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, overseas inventory has been increasing continuously. A rapid increase in social inventory will suppress zinc prices [4] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of LPG are weak, and the market atmosphere is dull. However, after continuous declines, the PG main contract shows certain signs of stabilization. Yesterday, the strengthening of crude oil prices drove a slight rebound in the LPG market. The industry is waiting for the release of the August CP price [1]. - The supply of LPG is sufficient, with abundant overseas supply, high - level US exports, and a limited decline in domestic commercial volume. The demand for civil gas is in the off - season, and the combustion demand is weak. Although the profit of PDH in the deep - processing sector has improved marginally and the operating rate has rebounded, the subsequent growth momentum is limited [1]. 3. Summary according to Related Sections Market Analysis - On July 29, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4100 - 4430 yuan/ton; North China market, 4600 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4640 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were: propane at 551 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4338 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane at 529 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4165 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). In South China, propane was at 544 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4283 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton); butane was at 522 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4110 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals of the market. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situations are disturbing oil prices, and concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and Middle - East tensions support oil price rebounds. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's fundamental supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. Polyester load is currently strong, but the recovery of demand needs to be monitored. PF is affected by downstream production cuts, and PR's processing fees are expected to return to the range after repair [3][4][5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - The report presents polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][91][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the domestic child - rearing subsidy policy is of positive significance for enhancing fertility willingness and driving related consumption. Attention should be paid to whether the China - US economic and trade negotiations achieve more than expected progress. The market is rotating at the current position. In the short term, it is necessary to observe whether blue - chip stocks start to make up for lost ground, and opportunities in IH can be grasped on dips [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, a child - rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan per year will be provided for each child until the child reaches the age of 3. Eligible infants under 3 years old can apply for the subsidy, and those born before January 1, 2025, and under 3 years old can receive the subsidy based on the number of months. It is expected that localities will open the application for the subsidy in late August. The China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Overseas, Trump said he might impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated a separate trade agreement with the US [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to close at 3,597.94 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%. The defense and military, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology industries led the gains, while the coal, steel, transportation, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.74 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.14%, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs [2] - In the futures market, the basis trends were differentiated. The basis of IH rebounded, while the discounts of IC and IM deepened. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The implementation of the domestic child - rearing subsidy policy is positive for fertility willingness and related consumption. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations. The market is rotating, and short - term attention should be paid to whether blue - chip stocks make up for lost ground. Opportunities in IH can be grasped on dips [3] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 28, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.35% [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 92,993 (an increase of 547), open interest was 263,839 (an increase of 3,663); IH trading volume was 46,357 (a decrease of 870), open interest was 95,447 (a decrease of 1,993); IC trading volume was 88,191 (an increase of 11,258), open interest was 228,690 (an increase of 3,134); IM trading volume was 186,257 (an increase of 26,844), open interest was 338,751 (an increase of 11,728) [15] - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 4.62 (a decrease of 0.26), etc.; for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 3.23 (an increase of 3.14), etc.; for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 49.42 (a decrease of 11.03), etc.; for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 55.38 (a decrease of 16.97), etc. [40] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: for example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 9.20 (a decrease of 2.40), etc. [44][45][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price remains in a sideways pattern, and the gold-silver ratio has normalized due to the increase in market risk sentiment. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates. The potential removal of Fed Chairman Powell could increase safe-haven demand and benefit the gold price. It is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The silver price has reached a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. However, due to its high volatility, attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss. The weakening photovoltaic sector may also suppress the silver price in the future. It is recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. - It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - It is advisable to put options on hold [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment firm led by Trump's ally to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury significantly raised its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, slightly alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties and causing precious metals to weaken slightly. The US and the EU are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed interest rate meeting is approaching, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [1] 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.82 yuan/gram and closed at 774.78 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 770.84 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,350 yuan/kg and closed at 9,212 yuan/kg, down 1.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,203,307 lots, and the open interest was 398,421 lots. The night session closed at 9,200 yuan/kg, down 0.27% from the afternoon session [2] 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 28, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 51%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.4 SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On July 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 939 lots, and the short positions decreased by 41 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 330,092 lots, down 45.61% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,184 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,086 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contract was 1,564,987 lots, down 39.34% from the previous trading day [4] 3.5 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] 3.6 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.52 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -513.64 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.11, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.7 Fundamental Data - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D market was 34,706 kg, down 36.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 637,268 kg, down 44.82% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,848 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [7]