Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, as prices reach relatively low levels, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. Also, due to high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating short - term market supply pressure. Additionally, terminal demand is gradually picking up, releasing the breeding industry's expectation for price increases, which has promoted a rebound in egg prices from the low level. The futures price has slightly increased, with the far - month contracts performing better than the near - month ones [8]. - The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - The egg market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3628 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 33 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [8]. - The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 09 contract oscillated slightly upward. The trading volume was 239,719 lots, a decrease of 18,193 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 32,363, and last week it was - 28,627, with a slight increase in net short positions [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3387 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 351 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 241 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 46 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.36 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm**: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new chick index was reported at 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of June 30, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was reported at 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national culling age was reported at 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2408.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2900 yuan per ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of July 18, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was reported at - 0.47 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.72 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.88 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was reported at 9.6 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year (11,784.06 tons), a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month (12,792.51 tons) [64]. 4. Representative Company - The report mentions Xiaoming Co., Ltd. and shows its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level expectation is strong as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the adjustment of the structure of key industries and eliminate backward production capacity, and the seminar on energy - saving and emission - reduction organized by leading manganese - based enterprises is expected to lead to a decline in the opening rate. The manganese silicon market is expected to have a supply contraction, and the market price is expected to rise. The manganese silicon should be treated as having an upward - biased trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the key industries to adjust the structure and eliminate backward production capacity. The seminar on dealing with the vicious involution of the industry held by leading manganese - based enterprises aims to achieve 40% energy - saving and emission - reduction [6]. - **Overseas aspect**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The output of manufacturers has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the inventory is moderately high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 42,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is 3 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 17 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical aspect**: The daily K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend [6]. - **Strategy suggestion**: The market expects a supply contraction. After the seminar, manganese silicon closed at the daily limit. With the futures driving up the spot price and the expected decline in the opening rate due to energy - saving and emission - reduction, the manganese ore inventory will gradually decrease. It is recommended to treat the silicon manganese as having an upward - biased trend [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures market**: As of July 25th, the position of silicon manganese futures contracts was 667,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 103,000 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 61, a week - on - week increase of 42 points; the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 77,656, a week - on - week decrease of 2,275; the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts was 248, a week - on - week decrease of 48 [12][16]. - **Spot market**: As of July 25th, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national average daily output of silicon manganese increased by 520 tons to 26,640 tons, and the demand for the five major steel products increased by 0.23% to 123,670 tons. The national silicon manganese output increased by 1.99% to 186,480 tons. The inventory of silicon manganese enterprises decreased by 11,300 tons to 205,000 tons [25][30]. - **Upstream**: The electricity cost remained flat, the price of South African manganese ore increased by 2 yuan/ton - degree to 37 yuan/ton - degree. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 42,000 tons to 428,500 tons. The arrival volume from South Africa decreased by 48% to 221,400 tons, from Australia increased by 7.79% to 44,000 tons, from Gabon decreased by 39.57% to 52,000 tons, and from Ghana increased by 98.4% to 345,800 tons. The northern region's spot production profit was - 60 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 420 yuan/ton [36][42][45]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons. The silicon manganese tender price of HBIS in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [48].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.25 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 「 周度要点小结」 3 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添 加 客 服 业 务 咨 询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨18.42%，玻璃期货上涨25.99%，本周纯碱期货出现了大幅拉升的表现， 主要原因来自于市场对于反内卷会议的炒作，，本周基本上属于情绪化交易为主，基本面表现依旧乏力， 在产量小幅下滑，库存高位的背景下，下周行情有望回落，玻璃方面本周和纯碱期货走势大致相同，在 反内卷会议指导下，玻璃整体利润开始回升，虽然玻璃库存处于高位，落后产能后续将逐步淘汰，产能 筑底，库存筑顶，整体来看有望率先实现基本面反转，但本周涨幅主要在反馈淘汰落后产能，甚至过多 反馈。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上行，市场供应依旧宽松，国内纯碱 利润回升，氨碱法和联碱法利润继续回升，后续纯碱迎来检修窗口，预计产量下滑，伴随着反内卷会议 指导，天然碱法将会逐步替代落后产能，需求端玻璃产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The current inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production may restrict price growth. The upper resistance level is at the previous high of 8,140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, but the large - scale listing of summer fruits impacts demand, and potential production growth may restrict price increases. The upper resistance is at 8,140 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. - **Future Trading Alerts**: Monitor de - stocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week. As of the end of the week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6,702 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [10][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of July 25, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Supply Side - As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The de - stocking speed was similar to last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%; in Shaanxi, it was 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%; in Gansu, it was 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales in Gansu were sporadic [26]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume at Wholesale Markets**: As of July 25, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin [30]. - **Wholesale Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%; the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.75 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [34]. - **Substitutes**: As of July 18, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.32 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14% [38]. - **Export Volume**: In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports totaled 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [41]. 3.3.3. Options Market - No detailed content provided other than the topic of the average implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week [42]. 3.4. Relationship between Futures and Stocks - The report presents the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, but no specific analysis is provided [44].

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.25」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格涨跌不一，主力合约EC2510收跌6.35%，其余合约收得-5-4%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为2400.50，较上周回落21.40点，环比下行0.9%，现货指标回落。7月底达飞上海离港前往鹿特丹的 船期，20GP总报价下降$100、40GP总报价下降$200，现舱报价有所回落。日美关税谈判达成协议，外加欧盟与美国贸 易谈判正有序进行，市场对关税所带来的负面影响预期减弱，远月合约期价回涨幅度高于近月。美国6月核心CPI同比 2.9%，预期3.0%，虽连续低于预期，但关税敏感品类价格已现传导迹象，特朗普近期关税加码或持续抬升通胀上行风 险，零售销售超预期反弹体现美国本土消费韧性，但部分受关税上调导致总体零售额的提振，为美元提供基本面支撑。 PPI环比停滞揭示企业正通过利润压 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated. Gold prices were affected by factors such as US - EU tariff negotiations, Fed policy expectations, and US economic data. Silver was relatively strong due to semiconductor demand and tight inventories. Looking ahead, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals, while strong US economic data may suppress gold prices in the short - term. If inflation expectations rise or the Fed gives more dovish signals, precious metal prices could be boosted again [7]. - Gold is recommended to be bought on dips in the range of $3300 - 3400 per ounce, and silver should be watched in the range of $38.50 - 39.50 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week due to US fiscal and political uncertainties and approaching US - EU tariff negotiation deadlines. However, they dropped on Wednesday as the US - Japan agreement and progress in US - EU negotiations eased risk - aversion. Fed policy interpretations were divided, and strong economic data weakened September rate - cut bets, further pressuring gold. Silver was relatively strong, with COMEX silver futures reaching a high of $39.66 per ounce, supported by semiconductor demand and tight inventories [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the US - EU tariff negotiation has eased, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Strong US economic data may suppress gold in the short - term, but rising inflation expectations or dovish Fed signals could lift prices [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX silver was at $39.100 per ounce, up 1.63% week - on - week; Shanghai silver futures contract 2510 was at 9392 yuan per kilogram, up 2.24%. COMEX gold was at $3356.3 per ounce, down 0.05%; Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 was at 777.32 yuan per gram, up 0.26% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 24, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings were 15208 tons, up 3.5% week - on - week; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 0.9% [15]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 448531 contracts, up 1.22%, and net positions were 213115, up 5.00%. COMEX silver total positions were 171474 contracts, up 5.33%, and net positions were 59448, up 1.58% [19]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, up 3.30%, and non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, down 2.70% [24]. - **Basis**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.64 yuan per gram, up 0.27%; the silver basis was - 35 yuan per kilogram, up 43.55% [27]. - **Inventories**: As of July 24, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37616678.62 ounces, up 1.27%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 28857 kilograms, up 17.38%. COMEX silver inventory was 497984759 ounces, up 0.30%; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1211076 kilograms, down 7.10% [32]. 3.3 Silver Industry and Supply - Demand - **Imports**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports were 273364.75 kilograms, down 0.14% month - on - month; silver ore imports were 126019303.00 kilograms, down 7.51% [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a monthly output of 4506000 pieces and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.80% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3%. Supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% [47][51]. 3.4 Gold Industry and Supply - Demand - **Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold recycling price was 774.7 yuan per gram, up 0.28%. Gold jewelry prices of brands like Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu also rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93%; jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47%; total demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% [61]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Bonds**: This week, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined slightly due to fluctuating tariff expectations. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility index rose, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [63][68]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Tariff negotiations made progress, and inflation expectations declined recently. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate dropped this week [72]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [77].

Group 1: Report Summary - The lithium carbonate market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week, with the main contract up 15.09% and an amplitude of 17.87%, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, but demand is temporarily weak. Consumption expectations are positive, but price increases due to market sentiment need to be treated with caution [5]. - The recommended strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Futures prices fluctuated strongly. As of July 25, 2025, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10,560 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,120 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2,380 yuan/ton [11]. Spot Market - Spot prices strengthened. As of July 25, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 7,620 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4,310 yuan/ton [15]. Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) increased. As of July 25, 2025, the average price was 740 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 32 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1547, a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [19]. Lithium Mica and Phosphorus Lithium Aluminate - The average price of phosphorus lithium aluminate was 7,450 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,625 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,067 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 286 yuan/ton [24]. Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply Side - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year-on-year decline of 9.63%. The monthly export volume was 429.653 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons from May, an increase of 49.84% and a year-on-year decline of 14.28%. - The monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year-on-year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month-on-month decline of 5% and a year-on-year decline of 32% [29]. Demand Side Intermediate Products - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year-on-year increase of 35.25% [32]. - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year-on-year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52% [35]. - In June 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%. The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable this week [39]. - The average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 500 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 61.19% [44]. - The average price of lithium cobaltate was 222,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year-on-year increase of 58.97% [47]. Application Products - In June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16%; the sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [49]. - As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year-on-year increase of 75.21% [55]. Group 5: Options Market - It is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility. The synthetic underlying premium and discount is 0.61, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract price of Zhengzhou jujube futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a weekly increase of 0.92%. The jujube market is in a seasonal off - peak demand period due to the listing of summer fresh fruits, and the inventory digestion is slow with high old - crop inventory. The new - season jujube is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The preliminary estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 tons, down 5 - 10% from the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% from 2024. The jujube price fluctuates repeatedly in the game between high old - crop inventory and differences in the reduction range of new - season output. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Future trading prompts include weather impact and consumption end. The main contract price of Zhengzhou jujube futures fluctuated slightly higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.92%. According to Mysteel data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The new - season output is estimated to be 56 - 62 tons, down 5 - 10% from 2022 and 20 - 25% from 2024. It is recommended to wait and see [9][10] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The main contract price of Zhengzhou jujube futures fluctuated slightly higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.92% [13] - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 22,674 lots [15] - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was - 22,736 [20] - **Futures spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1,010 yuan/ton [23] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was - 635 yuan/ton [24] - **Purchase price of new - season jujube in main producing areas**: As of July 25, 2025, the purchase price of jujube in Aksu was 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6 yuan/kg [27] - **Spot price of first - grade jujube**: As of July 25, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei and Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin [32] - **Spot price of special - grade jujube**: As of July 25, 2025, the wholesale price of special - grade gray jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.81 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [36] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: According to Mysteel data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%, and the sample - point inventory decreased [40] - **Supply side - Output**: The crop is growing well, and it is expected that the jujube output in the 2024/25 production season will recover [45] - **Demand side - Export volume**: In June 2025, China's jujube export volume was 1,765,107 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg, a month - on - month increase of 11.50% [48] - **Demand side - BOCE trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand was not traded [52] 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Option market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is provided, but no specific data is given [54] - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is provided, but no specific data is given [56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.86%. Internationally, the monsoon season has led to a good supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries, casting a shadow over the raw sugar market price. However, news of Coca - Cola changing its formula, significant year - on - year increase in China's recent imports, and potential buyers like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran have improved demand to some extent. Domestically, the price discrepancy between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, which suppressed sugar prices. On the demand side, the summer consumption peak has led to inventory - building needs in the food and beverage industry and a recovery in seasonal consumption such as cold drinks, providing some support for prices. Overall, the downward trend of the external market has slowed down, and its suppressing effect on domestic prices has weakened. Coupled with the domestic peak consumption season, the sugar futures price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the increase in imports and the expected global supply surplus will limit the upside potential. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position in the short term and control risks. Future factors to monitor include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rose with a weekly increase of about 0.86%. The external market is under pressure from supply surplus expectations but supported by demand improvement. Domestically, import pressure and demand support co - exist, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.15%. As of July 8, 2025, the non - commercial long position of ICE No. 11 sugar was 201,975 contracts, a 2.08% week - on - week increase; the non - commercial short position was 262,426 contracts, a 0.88% week - on - week decrease; the non - commercial net position was - 60,451 contracts, a 9.66% week - on - week increase. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 4,166 contracts, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 20,842 contracts [9][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,910 yuan/ton. As of July 22, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease; the in - quota price was 4,460 yuan/ton, also a 0.49% week - on - week decrease. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,743 yuan/ton, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; the in - quota price was 4,520 yuan/ton, a 0.48% week - on - week decrease. As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,480 yuan/ton, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease; the out - of - quota profit was 275 yuan/ton, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,420 yuan/ton, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease; the out - of - quota profit was 197 yuan/ton, a 3.14% week - on - week increase [24][27][32]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 1.11621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 1.11621 million tons, a 0.49% month - on - month increase; the cumulative sales volume was 811,380 tons, a 12.00% month - on - month increase; the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% month - on - month increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% month - on - month increase [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the sugar market this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract [54]. - **Stock Market**: The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided [58].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 玉米类市场周报 拍卖影响预期下滑 期货盘面窄幅震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2311元/吨，较前一周+8元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至25年7月20日当周，美国玉米 优良率为74%,符合市场预期，前一周为74%,上年同期为67%。生长初期优良率保持良好，产出前 景较高，国际玉米价格持续承压。国内方面，贸易商经过一轮出粮后库存趋紧，贸易商挺价心态 仍偏重，本周进口粮拍卖成交率略有回升，但实际成交量有限，出库速度不如预期，未能形成大 规模的有效供给。不过，深加工利润承压企业开机率偏低，且饲企库存相对安全，价格续涨动力 相对不足，总体维持窄幅调整。盘面来看，上周低位 ...