免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议 ，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 。本报告版权仅为我公司所有 ，未经书面许 可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 ，且不得对本报告 进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,750.00 | -34.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,408.00 | -86.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 563,721.00 | -207.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 400,568.00 | -2148.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -49 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied last week. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after early - month maintenance boosted the overall capacity utilization rate, while the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises dragged down its capacity utilization rate. This week, the capacity utilization rate still has room for improvement, which will drive the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,525 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 20,703 lots, down 2,036 lots. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, down 0.46 yuan/ton. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong was down. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, and CFR Japan naphtha changed, with Brent down 0.5 dollars/barrel, WTI unchanged, Northeast Asian ethylene unchanged, and CFR Japan naphtha down 13.25 dollars/ton. The CFR China butadiene price was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons, unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons. The manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons, and the trader's inventory was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,800 tons, down 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in nickel supply cost and the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply side is facing cost - upside - down pressure, leading to increased production cuts by steel mills. Domestic anti - involution measures may help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to further decline. On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and hesitant downstream buyers. Domestic inventory de - stocking is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking performance after production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions, and the MA10 support level should be monitored. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The recommended operation is to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, down 595 lots; the main contract position is 100,817 lots, up 46,026 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,872 tons, down 119 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 0.1%. The increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the negotiations are quite close in principle, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic daily urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled plants, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high because of substantial production profits [2]. - The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some local areas. The compound fertilizer enterprises have good pre - sales for the autumn season, leading to an increase in their operating rate and procurement; the melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may restrict its further increase [2]. - Recent urea export orders are still being executed, and the inventory of some urea enterprises is decreasing rapidly. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is mainly decreasing. However, the current urea enterprise inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. As the increase in agricultural demand decreases and the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [2]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 197,633 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,853, an increase of 3,554 [2]. - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 2,630, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 57 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 427.5 dollars/ton and 410 dollars/ton respectively [2]. 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, a decrease of 5.08 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94%; the daily urea production is 197,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 0, unchanged; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, an increase of 0.58%; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, a decrease of 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. 5. Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a 7.46% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from last week, an 11.14% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the Chinese urea output is 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from last week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output is 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94% [2]. 6. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with the previous optimistic sentiment on the disk gradually calming down and the market returning to the fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with limited upside potential. It is recommended to lightly go long at low prices [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upside potential in the short term. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,475 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 10,736 hands to 194,458 hands, while those of alumina increased by 6,732 hands to 239,364 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants decreased by 175 tons to 8,050 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 11,425 tons to 416,975 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, up 0.06 [2]. - The closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract was 19,820 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; its main contract positions increased by 85 hands to 8,393 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - Ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast - aluminum alloy decreased by 530 yuan to 180 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 35 yuan to 45 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan to 100 yuan/ton; the LME aluminum premium increased by 1.92 dollars to - 1.48 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The alumina supply - demand balance was - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste increased by 50 yuan to 16,100 yuan/ton; the average price in Shandong metal waste was unchanged at 15,700 yuan/ton. China's import of aluminum waste and scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons to 159,700.92 tons, and the export increased by 35.90 tons to 72.44 tons [2]. - The export of alumina decreased by 5 million tons to 21 million tons, and the import increased by 5.68 million tons to 6.75 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import of primary aluminum decreased by 27,381.21 tons to 223,095.59 tons, and the export increased by 18,421.29 tons to 32,094.07 tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.03% to 97.68% [2]. - The aluminum product production decreased by 0.20 million tons to 576.20 million tons, and the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6.10 million tons to 48.90 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.76 million tons to 2.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons to 126 million tons, and the national real - estate climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production increased by 11.70 million tons to 164.50 million tons, and the automobile production increased by 16.70 million vehicles to 280.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.82% to 8.83%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 9.34%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased by 0.0027% to 8.69%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0094 to 1.15 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June in the US, CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predicted that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September [2]. - In the first half of the year in China, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year; national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year, while private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. The average national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year and decreased by 0.16% month - on - month [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 6,605.36 billion yuan, up 5.3% year - on - year. The GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and that in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year. Quarter - on - quarter, the second - quarter GDP increased by 1.1% [2]. - In June, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with new - home prices rising month - on - month, with Shanghai and Changsha leading with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose month - on - month [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract fluctuated and declined, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply of domestic bauxite was sufficient, and the supply of alumina was expected to remain high in the short term. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rebounded slightly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was stable with a slight increase, and the inventory increased due to the off - season. The downstream demand was weak, and it is recommended to lightly go long at low prices [2]. 3.10 Cast - Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast - aluminum main contract rebounded slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand of cast - aluminum alloy were both weak, but the cost support was strong. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The external gold price is oscillating within the range of $3300 - $3400. The increase in long - term yields pushes up real interest rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero - coupon gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts provides support for gold. For silver, although the demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to decline in 2025, the commodity attribute is strongly supported by the semiconductor industry. Short - term speculative long - position reduction may bring adjustment pressure, and there is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair in the medium term. In operation, the idea of bottom - fishing is still adopted, and short - term correction risks should be noted. The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract focuses on the range of 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract focuses on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 776.66 yuan/gram, down 3.74 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9152 yuan/kilogram, down 73 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 200,708 lots, an increase of 2,438 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 430,521 lots, a decrease of 19,594 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 140,521 lots, an increase of 830 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 144,154 lots, a decrease of 2,822 lots. The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 28,872 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,212,789 kilograms, a decrease of 10,170 kilograms [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 771.4 yuan/gram, down 3.4 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9103 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.34 yuan/gram, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 49 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, and the silver ETF position is 14,856.02 tons, a decrease of 110.22 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, and the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, a decrease of 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 54.84 tons, and the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 54.83 tons, and the total global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.08%, down 0.72% [2] Industry News - Trump and the Indonesian President reached an agreement, and Indonesia will open the whole market to the US for the first time. The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut interest rates nearly twice by the end of the year. The US Treasury Secretary said that the selection process of the next Fed Chairman has officially started. The EU will postpone the implementation of trade counter - measures to August 6 if the trade negotiation with the US fails. The expectation of interest rate cuts weakens the attractiveness of the US dollar and supports the US - dollar - denominated gold. The 30 - year US Treasury yield has reached a two - month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and after the new tariffs take effect on August 1, different situations will have different impacts on the gold price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated weakly. In the macro - aspect, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; the factory inventory increased and the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory of 5.4037 million tons declined slightly again, and the apparent demand decreased by 33,700 tons. Overall, the sluggish real - estate data affected market confidence, the speculative demand for rebar was not active, and the trading performance was mediocre. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA continued to adjust downward. The operation strategy is to be bearish on fluctuations, and pay attention to the support around 3090 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the position volume was 2,137,057 lots, down 16,795 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 15,823 lots, down 7,662 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 96,689 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 154 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, up 0.42 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 97.53%, up 10.19 percentage points; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 898,700 tons, down 4,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 47.49%, down 0.98 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 60.42%, down 3.12 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 16, many places such as Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan issued red high - temperature warnings, and the local temperature in some areas of Wuhan, Jingmen, and Huanggang in Hubei could reach over 41°C. From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish with fluctuations. Continued attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; the position of the main contract was 96,814 lots, a decrease of 144 lots; the number of apple warehouse receipts was 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 7,606 lots, a decrease of 1,200 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) was 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple production in the new season will be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.82 million tons; the storage ratio of Shandong apples was 0.13, a decrease of 0.01; the storage ratio of Shaanxi apples was 0.06, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars, a decrease of 25.529 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 2,201,050.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan; the weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas was 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons was 3.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 7.8, with no change; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 11, a decrease of 0.8; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 19.4, a decrease of 0.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 17.29%, an increase of 0.45%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 17.3%, an increase of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of apples was 15.15%, with no change [2] Industry News - On July 16, 2025, there were few remaining apples in the western production areas, mainly concentrated in the Luochuan area, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was okay with stable prices. In the Shandong production area, the remaining fruit farmer's goods were mainly large fruits, and the medium and small fruits had basically been cleared. The trading speed of large fruits was slow, and transactions were mainly through bargaining. Merchant - owned goods were mainly self - picked and shipped, with little change in the market [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the national main production areas was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.81 million tons compared to the previous week. The inventory turnover speed changed little compared to the previous week and was still slower than the same period last year. The storage ratio in the Shandong production area was 13.21%, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed was slower year - on - year. The storage ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 5.72%, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous week, and the inventory turnover was slightly faster than the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 897.0, down 1.48%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 783, up 1 yuan/ton. With the overall decline in mine inventories, improved market confidence, and better downstream purchasing willingness, coking coal should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [2]. - On July 16, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1494.5, down 1.45%. The spot price was raised in some regions. With the improvement of raw - material supply and a slight decline in hot - metal production, coke should also be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为897.00元/吨，环比下跌14.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1494.50元/吨，环比下跌19.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为845462.00手，环比增加30539.00手；J期货合约持仓量为55177.00手，环比增加492.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60314.00手，环比增加1256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比下跌4.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为44.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为1600.00张，无环比变化；焦炭仓单为90.00张，无环比变化 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为783.00元/吨，环比上涨3.00元；俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）为120.00美元/湿吨，环比上涨2.00美元 [2]. - 唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1390.00元/吨，无环比变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1220.00元/吨，无环比变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为33.00元/吨，环比上涨14.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 104.50元/吨，环比上涨19.50元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为298.69万吨，环比下降2.08万吨；110家洗煤厂精煤库存为191.54万吨，环比下降5.53万吨 [2]. - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.85%，环比上涨0.52%；原煤产量为42107.00万吨，环比增加1778.60万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为3303.70万吨，环比下降300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比下降9.02万吨 [2]. - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比下降6.67万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比下降0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比下降150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比下降68.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比下降0.30% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比下降11.00元；焦炭产量为4170.00万吨，环比下降67.60万吨 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比下降0.31%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比下降0.40% [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.00万吨，环比下降336.50万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 15, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on July 17, 2025 [2]. - Trump said that an agreement was reached with Indonesia, where Indonesian goods exported to the US will pay a 19% tariff, while US exports are tariff - free [2]. - Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that relevant departments are formulating measures to strengthen the regulation of market order, which is conducive to improving market supply - demand relations and promoting a reasonable price rebound [2]. - From January to June, infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 7.5% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [2]. - Sheng Laiyun said that domestic demand was the main driving force for China's economic growth in the first half of the year. Consumption policies will be further strengthened in the second half of the year. There is still great potential for fixed - asset investment, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The supply and demand in the nickel market are currently weak. The supply cost of nickel resources has increased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. Some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production due to profit losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production of the 300 - series, while the demand for ternary batteries has declined despite the continued increase in new energy vehicle production and sales. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has also accumulated again. Technically, it is in a range - bound adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,215 dollars/ton, up 150 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 54,128 hands, down 8,675 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 hands, down 927 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,049 tons, down 506 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 210.81 dollars/ton, up 4.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, up 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 8.9649 million tons, up 0.2465 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons [2] Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas in the negotiation. The Central Urban Work Conference pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs [2]