证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 04 月 01 日 皖通高速（600012.SH） 主业经营维持稳定，调前口径归母净利润同比+12.5% 周期/交通运输 皖通高速发布 2025 年年度报告，按调整后口径，2025 年全年实现营业收入 67.2 亿元，同比下降 12.7%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 18.8 亿元，同比下 降 1.6%（调整前口径同比+12.5%）；其中 Q4 实现营业收入 13.4 亿元，同比 下降 34.8%，实现归母净利润 4 亿元，同比下降 10.7%。 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济下行导致车流量下降、收费政策变化、改扩建效果不及 预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7092 | 6722 | 5658 | 5866 | 6277 | | 同比增长 | 7% | -5% | -16% | 4% | 7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2221 | 2605 | 3312 | 3500 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.72 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decline of 12.7% compared to the adjusted revenue for 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.88 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but if excluding the impact of asset acquisitions, the growth rate would be 12.5% [2][4]. - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan and a net profit of 400 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 20.9% compared to Q4 2024, or a 10.6% decline when excluding the asset acquisition impact [2][4]. - The company’s toll revenue (after tax) reached 5.023 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 13.36% compared to the adjusted toll revenue for 2024. Without considering the asset acquisition impact, the growth rate exceeded 30% [10]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 10 percentage points to 44.5%, and the net profit margin increased by 4.4 percentage points to 27.9%, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.660 yuan per share, totaling 1.13 billion yuan, which corresponds to 60.06% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [10]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the total revenue is projected at 6.722 billion yuan, with operating costs at 3.730 billion yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 2.991 billion yuan [13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.877 billion yuan, with an EPS of 1.12 yuan [13]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit over the next three years, with projections of 1.962 billion yuan in 2026, 2.017 billion yuan in 2027, and 2.055 billion yuan in 2028 [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company's toll revenue increased by 13.36% year-on-year, driven by both organic growth and external expansion strategies [1]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 6,722 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 12.68% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in construction service revenue. However, excluding construction service revenue, the company reported a revenue growth of 13.41% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,877 million yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.57% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 6.69% [6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.66 yuan per share, totaling 1,128 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 60.06% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to generate total revenues of 7,337 million yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 9.2%, followed by 7,294 million yuan in 2027 and 7,926 million yuan in 2028 [2]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit is expected to reach 2,162 million yuan in 2026, growing by 15.1%, and continue to rise to 2,198 million yuan in 2027 and 2,309 million yuan in 2028 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 1.27 yuan in 2026, 1.29 yuan in 2027, and 1.35 yuan in 2028 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12 for 2026 and 11 for 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 2.1 in 2025 to 1.7 in 2028 [2]. Growth Drivers - The company has shown strong internal growth, with significant recovery in core toll revenue, particularly from newly opened projects that have led to a rapid increase in traffic and revenue [6]. - The external expansion strategy includes the acquisition of high-quality road assets and strategic investments, such as acquiring a 7% stake in Shandong Highway for 30.19 billion yuan, which is expected to yield substantial investment returns [6]. - New project investments have been secured, laying a foundation for future growth, including several new highway projects [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company's toll revenue increased by 13.36% year-on-year, driven by both organic growth and external expansion strategies [1][6]. - The company achieved total revenue of 6,722 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 12.68% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in construction service revenue. However, excluding this segment, revenue grew by 13.41% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,877 million yuan, down 1.57% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 6.69% [2][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.66 yuan per share, totaling 1,128 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 60.06% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to generate total revenues of 7,337 million yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 9.2%, followed by 7,294 million yuan in 2027 and 7,926 million yuan in 2028 [2][11]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profits are 2,162 million yuan in 2026, 2,198 million yuan in 2027, and 2,309 million yuan in 2028, reflecting growth rates of 15.1%, 1.7%, and 5.1% respectively [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 1.27 yuan in 2026, 1.29 yuan in 2027, and 1.35 yuan in 2028 [2][11]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 12 for 2026 and 11 for 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 2.1 in 2025 to 1.7 in 2028 [2][11]. Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing strong internal growth, with significant recovery in core toll revenue, particularly from newly opened projects that have shown remarkable traffic recovery [6]. - External expansion efforts include the acquisition of high-quality road assets and strategic investments, such as acquiring a 7% stake in Shandong Highway for 30.19 billion yuan, which is expected to yield substantial investment returns [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995.HK) has made a strategic investment by purchasing a total of 24,262,729 shares of Shenzhen Expressway A-shares and 31,010,000 shares of Shenzhen Expressway H-shares, indicating a commitment to enhancing its investment portfolio in the toll road sector [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The total purchase price for the A-shares was approximately RMB 222,784,481.64 (around HKD 252,064,266.88) and for the H-shares was approximately RMB 206,014,349.92 (around HKD 233,090,095.40), excluding transaction costs [1] - The payment for the shares was made using the company's internal cash resources [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This acquisition represents a continuation of the company's strategic investment in leading toll road operators, which is expected to facilitate potential collaboration and synergies with Shenzhen Expressway [1] - The investment will allow the company to benefit from Shenzhen Expressway's diversified highway portfolio, which is located outside of Anhui Province, contrasting with the company's primary operations in Anhui [1] - The acquisition is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity, leveraging Shenzhen Expressway's asset quality, stable financial performance, and long-term value to achieve returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995.HK) has made a strategic investment by purchasing a total of 24,262,729 shares of Shenzhen Expressway A-shares and 31,010,000 shares of Shenzhen Expressway H-shares, indicating a commitment to enhancing its investment portfolio in the toll road sector [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The total purchase price for the A-shares was approximately RMB 222,784,481.64 (around HKD 252,064,266.88) and for the H-shares was approximately RMB 206,014,349.92 (around HKD 233,090,095.40), excluding transaction costs [1] - The payment for the shares was made using the company's internal cash resources [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This acquisition represents a continuation of the company's strategic investment in leading toll road operators, which is expected to facilitate potential collaboration and synergies with Shenzhen Expressway [1] - The investment will allow the company to benefit from Shenzhen Expressway's diversified toll road portfolio, which extends beyond Anhui province, where the company primarily operates [1] - The acquisition is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity, leveraging Shenzhen Expressway's asset quality, stable financial performance, and long-term value to achieve returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantong Highway (600012) has announced the acquisition of a total of 24.2627 million shares of Shenzhen Expressway (600548) A-shares and 31.01 million shares of Shenzhen Expressway H-shares, indicating a strategic investment in the expressway sector [1] Group 1 - The total purchase price for the A-shares was RMB 222.8 million, approximately HKD 252 million, while the total purchase price for the H-shares was RMB 206 million, approximately HKD 233 million [1] - The acquisition was funded through the company's internal cash resources, highlighting a strategic use of available liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) has announced the acquisition of a total of 24.2627 million shares of Shen High-speed A-shares and 31.01 million shares of Shen High-speed H-shares, indicating a strategic investment in the high-speed rail sector [1] Group 1 - The total purchase price for the A-shares was approximately RMB 222.8 million, equivalent to about HKD 252 million [1] - The total purchase price for the H-shares was approximately RMB 206 million, equivalent to about HKD 233 million [1] - The acquisitions were funded through the company's internal cash resources [1]

安徽皖通高速公路股份有限公司 ANHUI EXPRESSWAY COMPANY LIMITED （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份編號： 995） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或 完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該 等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 須予披露交易 購入深高速股份 購入事項 董事會謹此宣佈，本公司於相關期間場內購入合共24,262,729股深高速A股及 31,010,000股深高速H股，總購買價分別為人民幣222,784,481.64元（折合約 252,064,266.88港元）及人民幣206,014,349.92元（折合約233,090,095.40港元） （不包括交易成本）。購買價以本公司內部資源的現金支付。 上市規則涵義 根據上市規則，由於購入事項均於十二個月內進行，故購入事項應合併計算為 一連串交易。 由於購入事項的一項或多項適用百分比率（定義見上市規則）高於5%但低於 25%，購入事項構成本公司之須予披露交易，因此須遵守上市規則第14章之申 報及公告規定。 – 1 ...

Core Insights - The highway industry shows resilient traffic demand, with stable dividends and predictable cash flows. The policy optimization consensus is widespread and imminent [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of five key policy trends that could significantly impact reinvestment returns and long-term investment value in highway projects [4][3] Investment Highlights - From 2020 to 2022, truck traffic demand on highways demonstrated strong resilience, while passenger vehicle demand is expected to recover in 2023 due to concentrated effects of upgrades and expansions. High profitability and attractive dividends are anticipated [4][3] - A forecast indicates that highway traffic volume will continue to face pressure from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, primarily due to economic fluctuations affecting national road diversions and differentiated tolling [4][3] - By Q3 2025, highway traffic volume is expected to show a year-on-year increase, with a recovery trend continuing into 2026, suggesting that the impact of national road diversions may have been fully realized [4][3] - The report highlights that the "Highway Management Regulations" have been in place since 2004, and revisions are necessary to address rising construction costs and stagnant toll standards, which have led to declining returns on new and upgraded projects [4][3] - There is a broad consensus in the industry regarding four key points for the upcoming revisions: extending the duration for new roads, allowing delays for upgrades, introducing compensation mechanisms, and establishing a maintenance toll system [4][3] Policy Trends - The report identifies five significant trends in local-level upgrade and expansion policies that may influence national policy optimization: 1. Upgrade projects can reassess toll periods and standards 2. Upgrade projects may be treated as new projects for toll period and standard assessments 3. Upgrade projects will continue to adhere to the principle of "reasonable returns" 4. Toll periods for upgrade projects will not exceed the new regulations set in 2024, allowing for extensions in large-scale projects 5. Toll standards for upgrades may be adjusted based on investment per kilometer, with upper limits set by local standards [4][3] Strategy - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the highway sector, indicating it remains a preferred choice for transportation dividends. The anticipated policy optimizations are expected to mitigate reinvestment risks if effectively implemented [4][3] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Wantuo Highway, China Merchants Highway, Jiangsu Ninghu Highway, and Shenzhen International, with related stocks such as Sichuan Chengyu and Shandong Highway also highlighted [4][3]