瑞银料外卖战补贴8月见顶 阿里及京东估值具吸引力 金十数据7月18日讯，瑞银发表报告指，食品外卖平台补贴大战预计8月见顶，随后可能转向即时电商领 域。专家预计，到年底，美团目标保持60%的总商品成交市场份额，饿了么30%，京东10%。7月所有外 卖平台可能已陷入亏损。相较而言，美团在补贴效率上更具优势，通过创新供给模式如拼好饭及自有配 送员规模优势，优化商家和用户补贴。而其他平台需加大对第三方配送员的投入。瑞银认为，短期内电 商股股价可能因竞争不确定性持续波动。 美团因较高估值及潜在盈利下调风险，对其看法谨慎。相比 之下，阿里在具合理执行力的情况下，不同业务协同效应带来的价值释放潜力更大，且股价已回落至由 DeepSeek兴起所带动的行情前水平，具备吸引力；至于京东核心业务2025年预期市盈率仅7倍，估值仍 具竞争力。 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the "New Species Explosion 2025" is "Momentary Emergence," focusing on the innovative value of AI cycles [2] - The event is organized by Wu Sheng, the founder of the Scene Laboratory, who shares insights on three AI scenarios for 2025 [2] Group 2 - Sichuan Suning Yigou launched the first batch of elderly-friendly home experience buses and pop-up stores in Chengdu, showcasing smart home products and assistive devices [3] - The initiative aims to provide an immersive experience for the elderly, addressing their needs for safety, convenience, and comfort in home modifications [3] Group 3 - Meituan announced a nationwide rollout of pension insurance subsidies for over one million delivery riders, enhancing their social security [4] - The company is expanding its safety and service measures for riders, including the establishment of 1,000 "Rider Homes" in collaboration with the All-China Federation of Trade Unions [4] Group 4 - CICC's report highlights the ongoing AI Agent industry wave, predicting its large-scale implementation across various sectors by 2025 [5] - The report emphasizes the maturation of technology and product routes for AI Agents, which are expected to create a complete commercial ecosystem [5] Group 5 - OpenAI launched the ChatGPT Agent, which can think independently and select tools from its skill set to perform complex tasks [6] Group 6 - iQIYI introduced a content popularity ranking system with four categories, recognizing high-performing series based on their popularity scores [7] - This initiative marks iQIYI as the first video platform in China to implement a content popularity value system [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying competition in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) industry, particularly with the entry of new players like JD.com and the aggressive strategies of existing platforms such as Douyin and Meituan, highlighting the evolving landscape and market dynamics in the hotel booking sector [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The OTA market is experiencing a significant shift, with Douyin investing heavily in local life services and offering substantial platform subsidies to attract users [4][5]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "7+2+1" market structure, where the Ctrip group dominates with a 70% market share, followed by Meituan and Douyin as emerging players [10][24]. - Ctrip's user base reached 165 million by August last year, leveraging dynamic commissions and strategic partnerships to strengthen its market position [9][10]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Douyin's strategy includes live streaming and promotional pricing, aiming to capture a significant share of the hotel booking market, particularly in the mid-range segment [5][30]. - JD.com’s entry into the OTA space is seen as a move to enhance its product offerings and compete more effectively with Meituan, focusing on local life services [13][15]. - The competition is intensifying as platforms like Meituan and Douyin target the mid to low-end hotel market, while Ctrip maintains a focus on high-end hotels and business travel [20][22]. Group 3: User Behavior and Market Trends - There is a growing trend of price-sensitive users comparing multiple platforms, leading to a shift in hotel partnerships as they seek better deals [28][30]. - The rise of short video and social media platforms is reshaping consumer behavior, with users increasingly relying on these channels for travel bookings [33]. - Douyin's hotel booking GMV is projected to reach 90 billion in 2024, reflecting a 50% increase from 2023, driven by its content ecosystem and promotional strategies [32][33]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The hotel industry remains fragmented, with low barriers to entry, making it crucial for OTA platforms to establish strong supply chain relationships and maintain pricing stability [14][18]. - Despite aggressive pricing strategies, the sustainability of low-price competition is questioned, as hotels prioritize stable pricing and brand recognition when choosing OTA partners [18][19]. - The article suggests that while new entrants like JD.com may disrupt the market, the established players like Ctrip still hold significant advantages in terms of user loyalty and service offerings [25][26].

近期，近场电商领域出现的消费热点现象引发各界关注。多家平台加大本地配送补贴力度，这是在我国居民消费需求变迁、互联网技术演进和本地配送等 基础设施愈发成熟等多重因素驱动下的一次深层次变革，带来了消费市场新的想象空间，电商平台正走入"大消费"的下半场。7月16日，在由中国市场学 会主办、中国社会科学院财经战略研究院承办的"电商下半场：远近融合的大消费平台与消费的增量创造"专家研讨会上，多位行业人士和业内专家就这一 现象产生的机理和影响进行了深入探讨。 "平台补贴成为消费增长的推动力，而即时零售作为电商模式创新，在扩大消费与内需中作用显著。"中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长、研究员何德旭 的观点，点出了这一领域的核心价值。除拉动消费外，这场即时零售创新浪潮更在就业、民生、产业升级等层面释放积极效应。 显著带动就业和相关人群收入增长 近场电商也可理解为即时零售，区别于传统电商，是消费者可在本地平台下单，由附近门店即时发货并在几小时内送达的新零售模式，它融合了传统零售 的线下触达和线上电商的便捷体验。 清华大学长聘教授、数字经济研究中心主任王勇在此基础上提出"便捷经济"概念，所谓便捷经济是指借助数字技术和网络平台的能力 ...

｜ 2025年7月18日星期五 ｜ NO.1快递服务收费计重"向上取整"，国家邮政局回应 7月17日消息，近日，国家邮政局就揽收快件收费计重"向上取整"的情况，组织开展核查工作，指导相 关寄递企业结合自身实际，参照《快递服务》国家标准，优化完善服务收费计重规则。目前，相关寄递 企业普遍参照《快递服务》国家标准优化了计重收费规则（具体情况附后），即计费重量以千克（kg） 为单位，保留小数点后至少1位。 点评：快递服务收费规则直接影响消费者的使用成本。通过优化计重收费规则，快递企业能够提供更透 明、更合理的服务，增强消费者信任。此外，这一规范也有助于提升行业整体的服务质量和市场竞争 力。 NO.2Cursor封禁中国IP模型调用，Kimi K2日调用量超过100亿token 点评：Cursor的封禁行为可能源于对中国市场的竞争压力。Kimi K2的调用量大幅上升，表明其在性能 和价格上的优势使其在短期内收获了一定的市场份额。未来，中国AI（人工智能）企业需继续加强技 术研发，提升产品性能，以应对国际市场的竞争和技术封锁。 NO.3美团宣布养老保险补贴将全国上线 7月17日，美团宣布今年内将在全国范围推广养老保险补 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of delivery personnel in China, showcasing their career advancements and skill development within the logistics and delivery industry [5][16][19] Group 1: Career Advancement and Skill Development - Delivery personnel are increasingly recognized for their skills, with initiatives like skill competitions and training programs being implemented to enhance their professional development [7][9][12] - Notable examples include Zhaolijie, who transitioned from a delivery worker to a pilot for SF Airlines, and Li Qingheng, who became a provincial technical expert and received a housing subsidy of 1 million yuan [6][16] - The industry has seen significant participation in vocational training, with 453,000 frontline workers receiving training and 10,800 obtaining vocational skill certificates in 2024 [9][12] Group 2: Educational Opportunities - Companies like Meituan and JD.com have launched educational programs to support delivery personnel in obtaining higher education, with thousands of employees benefiting from these initiatives [11][19] - The "Blue Fund" and "Rider University" programs have helped nearly a thousand delivery workers pursue free education, enabling them to balance work and study [10][11] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The delivery industry is characterized by high turnover rates, with over 80% of riders indicating they plan to change jobs within two years, highlighting the transitional nature of these roles [16][17] - The industry is evolving, with opportunities for delivery personnel to transition into roles such as drone pilots and entrepreneurs in underserved markets [16][19] Group 4: Personal Stories and Achievements - Personal narratives from delivery workers illustrate their diverse talents and aspirations, such as poetry, music, and entrepreneurship, showcasing the multifaceted nature of their lives beyond work [13][14][36] - The article emphasizes the importance of community and support systems for delivery workers, as many express gratitude for the opportunities their jobs have provided [20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan has announced a comprehensive upgrade of four major protections for delivery riders, aiming to enhance their social security, service support, family care, and safety measures, thereby fulfilling corporate social responsibility [1][2]. Social Security System - Meituan's exploration in social security has spanned five years, with a pilot program initiated in 2021. The pension insurance subsidy trial began in the second quarter of this year across six provinces and seven cities, allowing riders to receive a 50% subsidy after paying their insurance [2][4]. - By the end of this year, the pension insurance subsidy is expected to be rolled out nationwide, covering over one million riders [4]. Service Support and Family Care - Meituan has launched the "Thousand Rider Homes" initiative in collaboration with the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, aiming to establish 1,000 service centers over the next three years to provide training, social security consultation, and legal assistance [5]. - The "Tongzhou Fund" has been established to support riders and their families, offering scholarships and medical assistance for serious illnesses [7]. Safety Measures - Meituan has upgraded its safety system, focusing on prevention, intervention, and post-incident support. Over 1 million smart helmets have been distributed to riders, featuring high-strength shells and automatic fall reporting [8]. - Riders who complete deliveries safely can receive platform bonuses, further incentivizing safe practices [8]. Community Engagement - During the "717 Rider Festival," Meituan distributed 3 million cash red envelopes and provided over 185,000 special meals in collaboration with various restaurants, alongside summer heat relief supplies [8][9]. - The festival has become a significant event for recognizing the contributions of riders, with over 6,000 community activities organized nationwide [9].

Core Insights - Meituan Medical Beauty launched the "Safe Beauty" project to enhance transparency and safety in the medical beauty industry, collaborating with the China Association of Plastic Surgery and upstream brands [1][2] - The project has developed an AIoT smart verification hardware system that allows consumers to trace product origins using QR codes, with over 7 million verification services provided across 100 cities by June 2025 [1][2] - The initiative is expanding into emerging markets, with verification demand in non-first-tier cities expected to quadruple by 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a growing trend in the medical beauty sector [2][3] Group 1 - The "Safe Beauty" project aims to provide consumers with a transparent and secure medical beauty experience through product traceability and verification [1][2] - Meituan Medical Beauty has upgraded its AIoT smart verification system, introducing portable versions and dynamic data monitoring screens to enhance product tracking [1][3] - The project has already installed over 4,000 smart verification devices in more than 2,000 medical beauty institutions nationwide [1] Group 2 - The collaboration with the Suzhou Health Commission aims to implement smart verification devices in all medical beauty institutions in the city, integrating verification into the rating system for these institutions [2] - Emerging markets are showing a significant increase in verification demand, with cities like Shijiazhuang and Guiyang leading in growth rates [2] - Meituan Medical Beauty plans to enhance its services by improving product traceability, transparent medication practices, and disclosing doctor qualifications [2][3] Group 3 - The company is working on displaying certified doctor information and linking it to their clinical performance, with over 9,000 doctors' credentials already showcased [3] - The technology for product authenticity verification is being enhanced, including the development of live-streaming medication capabilities [3] - Meituan Medical Beauty will introduce multi-modal interaction capabilities, allowing businesses to create personalized digital representations for user engagement [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is expanding its in-store group buying business to compete with Meituan and Douyin in the food delivery market, focusing on quality dining establishments and aiming to diversify its revenue streams [1][3][7]. Group 1: Business Strategy - JD.com is incentivizing service providers to expand in-store group buying, particularly targeting full-service restaurants like hot pot and barbecue [1][3]. - The company is offering a 100 yuan incentive per store for service providers to onboard quality dining establishments that opened before July 31, excluding fast food and dessert categories [3][5]. - JD.com requires that the original prices of in-store dining products do not exceed those on Meituan or Ele.me, and the number of products must also match or exceed those platforms [3][5]. Group 2: Market Competition - Meituan is currently the leading player in the in-store group buying market, with a significant increase in order volume and active users in 2024 [5][7]. - Douyin has also seen substantial growth in its group buying segment, with a 221.17% increase in order redemption rates year-on-year [7]. - The competition is intensifying as JD.com, Meituan, and Douyin vie for market share in the local service sector, which is projected to grow significantly by 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Revenue Generation - In-store group buying is seen as a lucrative revenue stream for JD.com, allowing the platform to earn advertising fees while driving traffic to dining establishments [1][5]. - The commission for merchants participating in JD.com's in-store group buying is set at 5%, with additional incentives for service providers who successfully onboard new restaurants [5][6]. - The local service market is expected to reach a scale of 35.3 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting the potential for revenue growth in this sector [8]. Group 4: Operational Focus - JD.com is shifting its subsidy strategy to focus on quality dining options rather than competing in the price war for delivery services [9][10]. - The company is investing over 10 billion yuan to support quality dining merchants and enhancing rider benefits to improve service quality [9][10]. - JD.com aims to differentiate itself by leveraging its supply chain capabilities and expanding its B2B market presence [10][11].

Market Overview - On July 17, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.08%, closing at 24,498.95 points, with a total net inflow of HKD 1.855 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading was HKD 134.723 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.855 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - In the Shanghai Stock Exchange southbound trading, the total trading amount was HKD 85.121 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.668 billion [1] - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange southbound trading, the total trading amount was HKD 49.602 billion, with a net buy of HKD 0.187 billion [1] Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai Stock Exchange southbound trading was Xiaomi Group-W, with a trading amount of HKD 38.09 billion, despite a closing price drop of 2.01% [1][2] - Other notable stocks included Guotai Junan International and Alibaba-W, with trading amounts of HKD 37.54 billion and HKD 34.26 billion, respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange southbound trading, Xiaomi Group-W also led with a trading amount of HKD 26.80 billion [2] Net Buy/Sell Analysis - The highest net buy was for Xiaomi Group-W at HKD 6.06 billion, while the highest net sell was for Pop Mart at HKD 4.78 billion, which closed down by 0.87% [1][2] - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Meituan-W had the highest net buy at HKD 3.30 billion, closing up by 1.13%, while Tencent Holdings had the highest net sell at HKD 3.79 billion, closing up by 0.10% [2]