↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 逆向思维，就是，反过来想。总是反过来想。芒格认为，研究失败比研究成功更有价值。因为失败往往揭示了根本问题和风险所在。通过逆向思 考，人们可以更好的识别和规避陷阱，避免犯同样的错误。在股市投资中，芒格通过研究失败的公司的共同规律，来规避风险，他认为避免愚蠢比 追求智慧更容易成功，芒格在书中把失败的公司的原因归为四大类。 第一类失败，能力圈之外的无知型失败：不懂的公司坚决不买。 投资者买股票踩雷，本质是公司的失败。公司失败，本质是投资者和管理者，对业务的底层逻辑毫无认知。导致决策脱离现实。比如盲目跨界，盲 目多元化，比如传统制造业去做互联网，消费品公司去投资芯片，缺乏技术积累也不懂新行业规则，最终投入打水漂。比如箭牌口香糖，主业做的 很好，但是为了多元化盲目收购软件公司，因为完全不懂软件的研发，迭代逻辑，最终软件业务持续亏损，拖累了主业。再比如阿里巴巴投资饿了 吗，苏宁易购，大润发，高德地图，基本都是亏损累累。伯克希尔1989年收购美国航空优先股，到1994年亏损75%。芒格后来承认他和巴菲特低估 了航空业密集的资本投入和同质化竞争；再比如贵州 ...

Core Insights - Taobao Flash Sale has officially launched its in-store group buying service as of September 20, covering key commercial areas in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Jiaxing, with a focus on various dining categories [3][6] - The group buying service is integrated across multiple platforms, including Taobao Flash Sale, Alipay, and Gaode, indicating a strategic move to leverage a large user base [4][3] - The initiative aims to enhance user experience by extending discounts and services to dine-in options, responding to consumer and merchant demand [3][5] Group Buying Business Overview - The initial group buying offerings include popular dining options such as tea drinks, desserts, and local specialties, with competitive pricing strategies [6][5] - Notable participating brands include both national chains and local favorites, showcasing a diverse range of options for consumers [6] - The pricing for group deals is significantly reduced, with examples like a hot pot meal originally priced at 170 yuan now available for 68 yuan [6] User Engagement and Traffic Potential - The integration of group buying across three platforms presents a potential user base of 1 billion daily active users (DAU), enhancing traffic for participating merchants [4] - The group buying initiative is supported by a robust supply chain and user-generated content (UGC) to ensure a comprehensive service offering [5] Strategic Alignment with Alibaba's Goals - Alibaba's e-commerce CEO indicated that the Flash Sale business has approximately 150 million DAU, highlighting the demand for in-store pickup and group buying services [7] - The launch of the group buying service aligns with Alibaba's broader strategy to diversify service offerings and enhance user satisfaction [7] Innovative Marketing and Promotion - Gaode's "Street Ranking" initiative has redefined industry standards for local business promotion, achieving 40 million DAU on its first day and increasing traffic to featured stores by 187% [7] - Merchants participating in the group buying program will receive promotional support both online and offline, including in-store materials to attract customers [8] Merchant Perspective - Merchants involved in the initial group buying phase express optimism, viewing the initiative as a way to increase revenue, regardless of the profit margin [9]

中国品牌价值强势增长与行业格局变化 2025年凯度BrandZ最具价值中国品牌100强总价值达1.21万亿美元，同比去年增长25%，这一显著增长表明中国品牌在全球市场中的竞争力和影响力正在 快速提升。从行业构成来看，媒体和娱乐行业以27%的品牌价值占比成为贡献份额最高的行业，其上榜的11个品牌价值总和较去年的24%占比进一步提 升，反映出该行业在中国品牌价值增长中的强劲动力。而金融服务业虽以16%的占比位列第二，但上榜品牌数量最多，达16家，显示出其在品牌建设上的 广泛基础和稳定发展。消费科技与服务平台行业则以13%的品牌价值占比位居第三，且排名较去年上升两位，体现了该行业在技术创新和市场拓展方面的 积极成效，其上榜的11个品牌通过不断推出新产品和优化服务，满足了消费者日益多样化的需求，推动了品牌价值的提升。 品牌增长的驱动因素与市场趋势 中国品牌的增长得益于多方面的因素。一方面，AI技术的广泛应用为品牌发展注入了新的活力。例如，腾讯借助混元大模型与元宝聊天助手等AI技术， 不仅提升了微信等核心平台的用户体验和广告定向精准度，还推动了娱乐业务的创新和海外扩张，其品牌价值因此大涨53%。另一方面，中国品牌在海外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent bond issuance by internet platform companies has attracted significant market attention, driven by increased investments in AI and a strategic move to optimize debt structures while locking in low interest rates [1][2][5] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Tencent Holdings announced plans to issue a total of RMB 90 billion in bonds, with specific amounts allocated to different maturities: RMB 20 billion for 5-year bonds at 2.10%, RMB 60 billion for 10-year bonds at 2.50%, and RMB 10 billion for 30-year bonds at 3.10% [2] - Baidu plans to issue offshore priority unsecured bonds worth RMB 44 billion, with proceeds aimed at general corporate purposes, including debt repayment [2][3] - Alibaba has also been active in the bond market, announcing a zero-coupon convertible bond issuance of approximately USD 3.2 billion and completing a zero-coupon exchangeable bond issuance of HKD 12.023 billion [3] Group 2: Strategic Financial Management - The bond issuance is seen as a strategy to refinance upcoming debts, with Tencent having USD 1 billion maturing in January 2026 and USD 500 million in April 2026 [4] - Despite having sufficient cash flow to cover maturing debts, the issuance allows companies to take advantage of low-cost financing options available in the current market [5] - The issuance of "dim sum" bonds (RMB-denominated bonds) is particularly attractive due to lower financing costs and better liquidity, which helps optimize the capital structure [5] Group 3: AI Investment and Future Outlook - The increasing bond issuance is closely linked to the growing capital expenditure in AI, with projections indicating that major Chinese internet companies will spend USD 32 billion by 2025, up from USD 13 billion in 2023 [7] - Alibaba plans to allocate approximately 80% of the proceeds from its bond issuance to enhance cloud infrastructure, while the remaining 20% will support international business expansion [7] - The trend of issuing bonds to fund AI investments reflects a broader strategy among internet companies to secure necessary capital for long-term growth and maintain competitive advantages in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Uber's market value has surpassed $200 billion, demonstrating the potential of a one-stop travel and lifestyle service platform, which has yet to be realized in the domestic market [3][16]. Group 1: Market Potential and Competition - The domestic local lifestyle service market, with a retail sales total approaching 50 trillion yuan by 2024, lacks a comparable platform to Uber, indicating a significant market opportunity [3]. - The local lifestyle service sector is entering a new expansion cycle starting in 2025, driven by the growth of online consumption from the food delivery wars [3][8]. - The competitive landscape in the domestic travel sector is intense, limiting players' ability to build cross-domain ecosystems, which presents an opportunity for Gaode [17]. Group 2: Gaode's Strategic Moves - Gaode has launched a group buying business in collaboration with Taobao and Ele.me, aiming to create a "super platform" for travel and consumption [3][9]. - Gaode's advantages include nearly 900 million monthly active users, synergy with Alibaba's ecosystem, and a robust AI service [11]. - The introduction of the "Street Ranking" feature aims to establish a more credible lifestyle service credit system by leveraging real user navigation behavior [12][14]. Group 3: User Engagement and Growth - The integration of group buying into Gaode's platform is expected to enhance user trust and engagement, positioning Gaode as a hub connecting online and offline services [14][19]. - Gaode's "Street Ranking" has already seen significant user engagement, with over 40 million users utilizing the feature on its launch day, indicating strong market interest [21]. - The monthly active users of Taobao Flash Purchase have increased by 200% since its launch, reflecting consumer demand for integrated services [26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend towards super apps in China's internet industry suggests that Gaode's development into a comprehensive lifestyle service platform is a natural progression [23][25]. - With a growing middle-income population and increasing consumer purchasing power, Gaode has ample room for expansion in the lifestyle service market [27][29]. - If Gaode successfully integrates travel and consumption services, it could unlock a new market potential worth hundreds of billions [29].

Group 1 - The article discusses Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) as a strong investment opportunity, highlighting a positive performance since mid-May [1] - The author expresses confidence in Alibaba's growth potential within the e-commerce and technology sectors [1] Group 2 - The author has a long position in Alibaba shares, indicating a personal financial stake in the company's performance [2] - The article emphasizes that the opinions expressed are independent and not influenced by external compensation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for cloud vendors to continuously invest in computing power, models, chips, and ecosystems to build a "super AI cloud" [2][25]. Group 1: AI Cloud Competition - AI cloud has become a new entry ticket in the cloud computing arena, crucial for vendors to escape price wars and rebuild competitive advantages [2]. - The competition for "AI Cloud No. 1" is intensifying among domestic cloud vendors, with the focus on market leadership becoming a core industry concern [2]. - Globally, only four major players remain in the AI cloud space: AWS, Microsoft, Google, and Alibaba Cloud [2][11]. Group 2: Evaluation Criteria for AI Cloud Leaders - The evaluation of who is the "AI Cloud No. 1" depends on various standards, with models being a key factor for some [5][6]. - The article outlines four critical questions to assess the capabilities of AI cloud vendors: 1. Annual infrastructure investment of at least 100 billion [6]. 2. Possession of million-level large-scale computing clusters and cloud scheduling capabilities [8]. 3. Availability of top-tier large model capabilities that perform across various scenarios [9]. 4. Strategic layout of AI chip computing power [10]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure Insights - Major cloud vendors like Google, Microsoft, and AWS have significantly increased their capital expenditures to meet the explosive growth in AI infrastructure demand, with Google raising its annual target to $85 billion [6][7]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 76.7 billion RMB, significantly lower than its competitors, indicating a disparity in financial strength [10]. Group 4: Development Models - Two primary development models are identified: "Cloud + Ecosystem" (AWS and Microsoft) and "Full Stack Self-Research" (Google and Alibaba) [12][19]. - The "Cloud + Ecosystem" model allows vendors to leverage external models, reducing R&D costs and risks while increasing platform attractiveness [14][15]. - The "Full Stack Self-Research" model involves significant upfront investment but can create a strong competitive moat and higher long-term value [19][20]. Group 5: Alibaba Cloud's Position - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a representative of the "Full Stack Self-Research" model in the Eastern context, competing closely with Google Cloud [25]. - The company plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, demonstrating a commitment to enhancing its capabilities [24]. - Alibaba Cloud's strategy includes embracing open-source models, creating a large AI model community, and addressing hardware constraints through software ecosystem development [24][25].

阿里巴巴AAIG团队 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 正如牡蛎历经磨砺，在坚实的外壳内将沙砾孕育成一颗温润的珍珠。AI也可以如此， 不是一个只会紧紧封闭抵御风险的系统，而是一个有底 线、有分寸、也有温度的伙伴。 阿里巴巴集团安全部联合清华大学、复旦大学、东南大学、新加坡南洋理工等高校，联合发布技术报告；其理念与最近OpenAI发布的GPT-5 System Card放在首位的"From Hard Refusals to Safe-Completions"理念不谋而合。 阿里巴巴集团安全部 正在努力推动从"让AI安全"到"让用AI的人安全"的范式跃迁，迈向真正守己利他、以人为本的AI治理。 Oyster-I模型及Demo已开放使用，详细链接可见文末。 真实世界的风险 在AI日益融入生活的今天，人们可能会遇到这样的场景： 一位焦虑的母亲，在深夜搜索"宝宝发烧的偏方"；或者马上到考试周截止时间，交不上作业的年轻学生向AI求助Photoshop破解方案，得到的 却是AI"我无法帮助"的冰冷回复。 这种回复虽然不出错，却可能将无助的用户推向网络上更不可靠、甚至危险的信息深渊。 更极端一点，当一个在经济困境中流露 ...

江湖传闻已久，淘宝闪购要下场到店团购，现在真的来了。 今日上午，36氪独家问询了解到，淘宝闪购确已于9月20日启动到店团购业务，首批覆盖上海、深圳、 嘉兴三个城市的核心商业区域，涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃等多个餐饮品类。这批 团购商品，除了在淘宝闪购，也同时在支付宝、高德APP等多个入口同时上架。 "水到渠成的业务发展，从闪购上线以来，消费者和商家都一直希望闪购的优惠和服务能延展到堂 食。"淘宝闪购相关负责人对36氪表示，"因此我们的产品和服务也已经相应升级。" 从整个阿里视角来看，这也是继高德扫街榜打响第一枪后，在到店业务上又往前进了一步。 据36氪了解，淘宝闪购的"到店团购"业务，目前由饿了么团队主要负责产品、供给和运营，与高德、支 付宝也深度协同。首批上线的三个城市，用户可从淘宝闪购频道的金刚位、或搜索"到店团购"等关键词 进入，此外在高德商家页面、支付宝卡包神券也都有相应入口，用户可下单购买团购产品。 这三端入口，意味着10亿级DAU潜力的流量基本盘。 团购业务目前仍以餐饮为主，涉及茶饮、甜品、正餐、自助餐及城市特色小吃，此次参与淘宝闪购团购 业务的合作品牌，既包括桂满陇、新旺茶餐厅、 ...

IT之家 9 月 20 日消息，Tech 星球发现，距灵犀互娱从虎鲸文娱（原阿里大文娱）独立运营不到 1 个月，阿里在游戏赛道的又有了新的布局，将打造独立 的小游戏业务"熠点互动"。 公开报道显示，阿里最早在 2014 年就曾在手机淘宝短暂上线过"游戏中心"，提供连连看、五子棋等类型游戏。 IT之家查询获悉，北京熠点互动网络科技有限公司成立于 2023 年 06 月 28 日，虎鲸文化娱乐（北京）有限公司持股 100%。今年 8 月 23 日，其法人和董 事变更为吴倩。公开信息显示，吴倩是优酷首席运营官、阿里鱼（阿里旗下 IP 交易及创新平台）总裁。 2016 年 1 月，九游宣布正式更名"阿里游戏"。2019 年，阿里游戏调整为互动娱乐事业部，由阿里巴巴大文娱管辖。阿里九游总经理张楠楠在 ChinaJoy 上 在接受采访时称，淘宝小游戏平台的数据增长非常快，但她并未透露具体数据。 官网显示，"熠点互动"是一个集 H5 游戏和小程序游戏平台运营于一体的综合型互联网游戏平台，专注于游戏的运营与推广，具备包括但不限于产品引 入、渠道分发、营销推广、商业化运营全周期服务能力。 但在那之后，阿里开始愈发重视《三国志・ ...