18日，高盛发布最新观点，称维持对A股和H股的超配评级，并预测未来12个月两个市场的潜在上行空 间分别为8%和3%。 与此同时，国际资本也在积极加仓中国科技板块，其认为，在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中 国已具备全球竞争力，股市估值修复窗口正在打开。 高盛：维持中国股市超配评级 当前市场属于盘整而非反转 9月18日，高盛研究部首席中国股票策略分析师刘劲津及团队发表最新观点称，维持对A股和H股的超配 评级，预测未来12个月两个市场的潜在上行空间分别为8%和3%；建议投资者逢低吸纳，看好"中国民 营企业十杰"、AI、反内卷及股东回报等主题。 高盛表示，本轮由估值及流动性驱动的股市上涨在全球资本市场均有所体现。长期看上涨需要盈利支 持，但"流动性"是所有上涨趋势的必要条件。当前，A股形成向上趋势的条件较此前更好。本轮中国市 场的上涨中，基本面支撑也是贡献因素之一。中国主要指数的盈利在今年及明年仍将维持中高个位数增 长趋势。 作为衡量境内风险偏好的综合指标，高盛构建的A股散户情绪指标显示，当前市场更多属于盘整而非反 转。估值方面，多数指标显示大盘股并未被高估，指数市盈率处于中段区间。 资金面上，高盛认为，数据显 ...

Group 1 - Shanghai Municipal Education Commission is investigating a food safety incident involving a dish served in schools, with results expected within a week [5][7] - The market supervision bureau in Jiangxi Province is investigating a hotel for price gouging during the National Day holiday, with room rates reportedly increasing from around 90 yuan to approximately 1000 yuan [9] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urges the EU to avoid protectionism and eliminate market barriers in the context of electric vehicle tariffs [6] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology reported that national R&D investment exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020, with a focus on foundational research [6] - The film "731" achieved a single-day box office of over 3 billion yuan, setting two records in Chinese film history [10] - Hong Kong police arrested 13 individuals in connection with a gold theft case, recovering stolen gold valued at approximately 50 million HKD [8] Group 3 - Huawei's Xu Zhijun announced that the Atlas 950 super node will have a computing power of 8192 cards, expected to launch in Q4 2024, positioning it as a leading product in AI computing infrastructure [14] - Alibaba's market capitalization has returned to 3 trillion HKD, with reports of founder Jack Ma's increased involvement in the company [16] - Cambrian's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.881 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 4347.82% year-on-year, driven by AI chip products [17]

Group 1: Chip Stocks Performance - Chip stocks showed strong performance with Intel rising over 22%, Applied Materials and ASML increasing over 6%, and Micron Technology up over 5% [1] - Nvidia's stock price reached $176.24, up 3.49%, with a market capitalization of $4.28 trillion, adding $144.6 billion (approximately 102.85 billion RMB) to its market value overnight [1] Group 2: IPO and Market Trends - Cybersecurity company NetSkope saw an 18% increase on its first day of trading in the U.S. IPO market [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.79%, with notable declines in stocks such as NetEase (over 4%), Bilibili (over 3%), and others like Weibo, Li Auto, and Alibaba (over 2%) [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and following three cuts last year [5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the challenge of balancing rising inflation with a weak labor market, indicating a "dual risk" scenario [7][9] Group 4: Economic Implications of Rate Cuts - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut is primarily driven by downward pressure from weak employment, with a shift in focus towards job stability as a core concern [8] - The rate cut is expected to lower borrowing costs, potentially stimulating demand and supporting employment, although external factors like tariffs and immigration policies may negatively impact consumer and business confidence [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,523.97, down by 20.88 points or 0.08% as of September 18, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,568.27 and a low of 26,422.86 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 74.7354 million [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 108.106, up by 0.85% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 642.805, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings saw a decrease of HKD 19.500, or 2.95%, with an ADR price of 642.805 [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) decreased by HKD 3.200, or 1.98%, with an ADR price of 157.960 [3] - HSBC Holdings increased by HKD 0.600, or 0.56%, with an ADR price of 108.106 [3] - China Construction Bank decreased by HKD 0.190, or 2.42%, with an ADR price of 7.641 [3] - AIA Group saw a decline of HKD 1.300, or 1.74%, with an ADR price of 73.536 [3] - NetEase experienced a drop of HKD 6.000, or 2.44%, with an ADR price of 237.834 [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by HKD 14.000, or 3.06%, with an ADR price of 446.269 [3] - Ping An Insurance decreased by HKD 1.500, or 2.69%, with an ADR price of 54.170 [3] - JD.com saw a decline of HKD 2.400, or 1.76%, with an ADR price of 137.583 [3] - Kuaishou Technology dropped by HKD 1.850, or 2.37%, with an ADR price of 72.913 [3]

Group 1 - US stock markets closed higher with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, Nasdaq up 0.94%, and S&P 500 up 0.48% [5] - Chip stocks performed strongly, with Intel rising over 22%, Applied Materials and ASML up over 6%, Micron Technology up over 5%, and Nvidia up over 3% [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.79%, with notable declines in stocks like NetEase down over 4% and Bilibili down over 3% [5] Group 2 - The international gold futures fell by 1.07%, settling at $3678.2 per ounce, while silver futures dropped by 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce [6] - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with WTI crude oil down 0.61% at $63.31 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.71% at $66.98 per barrel [7] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the EU not to weaponize tariffs and to eliminate market barriers, emphasizing the importance of fair competition in the electric vehicle sector [10] - The Ministry of Science and Technology reported that China's R&D investment exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020, with a research intensity of 2.68% [10] Group 4 - Huawei's rotating chairman announced that the Atlas 950 SuperPoD, with a computing power of 8192 cards, is expected to launch in Q4 2025, claiming it will be the strongest computing node globally [19] - Nvidia announced a partnership with Intel, where Intel will customize x86 CPUs for Nvidia, which will invest $5 billion in Intel shares at $23.28 per share [18] Group 5 - Alibaba's market capitalization returned to 3 trillion HKD, with reports of Jack Ma's increased involvement in the company, potentially impacting its business strategy [21] - Cambricon Technologies reported a staggering revenue increase of 4347.82% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by demand for AI chips [23]

Core Viewpoint - Internet platform companies are experiencing a surge in stock prices, driven by increased investments in AI, while simultaneously ramping up bond financing to support these investments [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tencent Holdings' stock reached a high of 664.50 HKD on September 18, marking its highest point since March 2021, with other companies like Alibaba and Baidu also seeing significant stock price increases [1]. - The overall trend indicates a strong market interest in internet companies, particularly those investing in AI technologies [1]. Group 2: Bond Issuance - Tencent announced plans to issue bonds totaling 9 billion RMB, with various maturities and interest rates, marking its first bond issuance since April 2021 [2]. - Baidu plans to issue offshore bonds worth 4.4 billion RMB, with proceeds aimed at general corporate purposes, including debt repayment [2]. - Alibaba has also been active in the bond market, planning to issue approximately 3.2 billion USD in zero-coupon convertible bonds [3]. Group 3: Financial Strategy - Internet companies are leveraging their strong cash flows to issue bonds, which is seen as a strategy to optimize debt structure and lock in low interest rates [4][5]. - The current low interest rate environment allows these companies to reduce financing costs by issuing bonds instead of equity [6]. - Historical data shows that companies often issue bonds during low interest periods to enhance capital efficiency, as seen with Apple during similar conditions [6]. Group 4: AI Investment - The integration of AI into business operations is accelerating, with major internet companies expected to increase capital expenditures significantly by 2025 [7]. - Alibaba plans to allocate 80% of the proceeds from its bond issuance to enhance cloud infrastructure, indicating a strong focus on AI and technology upgrades [7]. - The demand for funding in AI and other advanced sectors is driving these companies to utilize bond issuance as a key financing method [7].

Core Insights - Alibaba's International Digital Commerce (AIDC) segment is emerging as a significant growth driver, achieving 19% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 FY26 and moving closer to breakeven [1][9] - The growth is fueled by cross-border demand, localized logistics, and enhanced monetization strategies, particularly through platforms like AliExpress and Trendyol [2][4] - Operational discipline, including cost control and logistics scaling, is critical for AIDC's path to profitability [3][4] Revenue and Growth - AIDC's revenue increased by 19% year-over-year in Q1 FY26, with a notable reduction in losses [1][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects revenue growth of 4.38% for fiscal 2026 and 11% for fiscal 2027, indicating a positive outlook for AIDC [4] Competitive Landscape - Amazon remains a formidable competitor in international digital commerce, leveraging its logistics infrastructure and brand trust [5] - PDD Holdings is rapidly expanding with a focus on low-cost sourcing and unique social commerce innovations, positioning itself as a strong challenger to Alibaba [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Alibaba's shares have surged 96.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [7] - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Earnings ratio of 17.41X, below the industry's 25.54X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $8.09 per share, reflecting a 10.21% year-over-year decline [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Chinese internet regulatory authorities have instructed companies like Alibaba and ByteDance to cease purchasing NVIDIA's RTX Pro 6000D chips, reflecting a broader trend of regulatory scrutiny in the tech sector [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, emphasized that China consistently opposes discriminatory practices against specific countries in trade and technology matters, highlighting the geopolitical implications of such regulatory actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% is expected to positively impact the valuation of Chinese assets, particularly benefiting Chinese concept stocks and the technology sector in Hong Kong in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Chinese Assets - The recent interest rate cut is anticipated to lead to a rally in Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.85% on September 17 [2]. - Companies like Xunlei and Baidu saw significant stock price increases, with gains exceeding 11%, while Alibaba reached a four-year high with a 2.44% increase [2]. - The depreciation of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, from 7.3 to approximately 7.1 since 2025, is expected to enhance foreign investment in Chinese assets [2][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Historical trends indicate that after Fed rate cuts, growth sectors in A-shares and H-shares tend to outperform, aligning with the current performance of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech stocks [3]. - Analysts predict that the current rate cut is just the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of further cuts in October and December, potentially lowering rates to between 3.0% and 3.25% by mid-2024 [5][6]. - The overall liquidity in the global market is expected to remain ample, benefiting risk assets, including A-shares and H-shares [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The resilience of Chinese assets during the Fed's rate-cutting period is attributed to their stable asset quality and the appeal of Chinese assets as safe investments amid global capital seeking higher returns [4]. - The ongoing economic transformation in China and improvements in economic visibility are expected to support the performance of Chinese equities in the long term [6]. - The potential for artificial intelligence to become a mid-term investment theme is highlighted, with foreign investors showing a positive attitude towards Chinese assets [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's market value has returned to 3 trillion HKD, reflecting a nearly doubled stock price this year, symbolizing the strength of Chinese tech assets [1] Group 1: Economic Stability and Policy Support - China's economy is showing a stable and positive trend, providing a solid foundation for global capital to invest in tech assets [2] - The government has implemented proactive macro policies to support economic recovery, enhancing the confidence of global capital in Chinese tech assets [2] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to support quality tech companies in issuing shares and optimizing mergers and acquisitions, improving the financing channels for tech firms [2] Group 2: Emerging Industry Advantages - China's emerging industries are gaining competitive advantages due to a complete industrial chain and rich scenario-driven advantages, aligning with global capital's demand for sustainable value [3] - Significant progress has been made in optimizing and upgrading industrial structures, particularly in cutting-edge fields like AI and new energy, enhancing international competitiveness [3] Group 3: Growth Potential of Tech Companies - Chinese tech companies exhibit a "low valuation + high growth" characteristic, making them attractive for global capital reallocation [4] - The overall valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is at historical lows, providing a safety margin for capital entry, while tech companies show strong performance in terms of growth [4] - Recent valuation recovery in the tech sector has amplified capital return expectations, driven by improved profit forecasts and valuation corrections [4] Group 4: Long-term Confidence in Tech Development - As China's economy continues to recover and emerging industries grow, global market confidence in Chinese tech development is expected to strengthen [4] - This growing confidence will accelerate the release of value in Chinese tech assets, attracting more long-term capital with a global perspective [4]