01 站在次C位的周期 站在2025年年末，A股市场风格面临再平衡的关键节点，而"反内卷"政策的持续深化正在重塑 周期行业的投资逻辑。 自2025年三季度以来，科技与周期的"两翼齐飞"验证了经济的多元动能，而科技板块累计涨 幅过高、机构持仓集中的现状，使得周期行业的估值修复窗口加速打开。 2025年三季度A股市场呈现显著的"科技+周期"双轮驱动格局。 这种"两翼齐飞"并非偶然：一方面，科技板块的高增长本质是生产力升级的体现，而周期板块 的复苏则是需求端修复与供给端优化的必然结果；另一方面，二者形成的互补效应，反映出A 股市场从单一成长主线向"成长+价值"均衡配置的过渡。 其二， 机构持仓集中度接近历史峰值，A股机构投资者科技（TMT）仓位占比突破40.16%， 虽然略低于历史最高峰值，但拥挤度风险持续累积，资金分歧逐步显现； 其三， 政策导向释放明确信号，工信部提出2026年化工行业"控增量、减存量、管过程"三大 举措，反内卷政策从呼吁转向实质性落地，周期行业供给端收缩确定性增强。 因此，在2026年科技板块将从普涨行情转向结构性机会，估值与业绩匹配度成为核心筛选标 准。而周期行业尤其是化工板块，凭借估值洼地 ...

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Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.32% compared to the previous trading day, with Heshun Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Stock Performance - Heshun Petroleum (603353) closed at 30.03, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 202,500 shares and a turnover of 586 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Tongkun Co. (601233) up 2.69%, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 2.45%, and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up 2.35% [1] - The overall trading volume and turnover for the refining and trading sector showed significant activity, indicating investor interest [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 8.46 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 20.74 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 29.20 million yuan, indicating a mixed sentiment among different types of investors [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Petroleum (601857) had a main fund net outflow of 58.94 million yuan, while Heshun Petroleum (603353) saw a net inflow of 57.42 million yuan [3] - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) also experienced a significant net inflow of 36.32 million yuan from main funds, reflecting strong institutional interest [3] - The capital flow data suggests varying levels of confidence in different stocks within the sector [3]

11月27日，恒力石化盘中上涨2.07%，截至13:30，报18.74元/股，成交1.86亿元，换手率0.14%，总市值 1319.13亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入907.40万元，特大单买入357.45万元，占比1.93%，卖出935.22万元，占 比5.04%；大单买入3771.96万元，占比20.32%，卖出2286.79万元，占比12.32%。 恒力石化今年以来股价涨26.45%，近5个交易日跌1.73%，近20日涨5.16%，近60日涨9.08%。 截至9月30日，恒力石化股东户数6.73万，较上期减少9.54%；人均流通股104566股，较上期增加 10.55%。2025年1月-9月，恒力石化实现营业收入1574.67亿元，同比减少11.46%；归母净利润50.23亿 元，同比减少1.61%。 分红方面，恒力石化A股上市后累计派现261.36亿元。近三年，累计派现76.02亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，恒力石化十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股2.04亿股，相比上期减少3558.18万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流通 ...

内容概要：聚乳酸（PLA）降解塑料是以可再生植物资源为原料制成的生物基可降解材料，按乳酸单体 结构及共聚方式分为PLLA、PDLA等多类型，适配包装、医疗等多场景，相较传统石油基塑料具有原 料可再生、碳排放低、生物相容性好等核心优势，是政策支持下的优质环保替代材料。在全球绿色低碳 共识与国内"禁塑限塑""双碳"政策体系双重驱动下，全球及中国生物可降解材料市场规模与产能均快速 增长，PLA作为主流品类已实现规模化应用，中长期仍将保持市场主导地位。国内行业呈现头部企业引 领、中外差异化竞争格局，丰原集团、海正生材等本土龙头推进全产业链布局，跨国企业深耕高端市 场，中小企业聚焦细分领域；未来行业将持续突破核心技术、优化产品性能与成本，拓展高附加值应用 场景，构建可持续循环体系，实现规模化、高端化、绿色化高质量发展。 上市企业：金发科技（600143.SH）、海正生材（688203.SH）、中仑新材（301565.SZ）、中粮科技 （000930.SZ）、中国化学（601117.SH）、恒力石化（600346.SH）、金丹科技（300829.SZ） 相关企业：安徽丰原集团有限公司、安徽生建可降解聚乳酸新材料有限公司、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is at a significant turning point driven by policies aimed at "controlling growth and reducing inventory" [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implications - The "controlling growth" strategy is central to the long-term improvement of the industry, as outlined in the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan," which emphasizes scientific regulation of major project construction and strict control of new refining capacity [2] - The "reducing inventory" approach focuses on addressing current contradictions, with safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency being key policy drivers [2] Group 2: Industry Cycle and Capacity - The industry is nearing the end of its production cycle, with significant slowdowns in capacity growth expected by 2026 for most products [1][4] - Despite high operating rates, the industry has not experienced severe oversupply, with average capacity growth for various petrochemical products exceeding 10% per year from 2019 to 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the production growth rate of most petrochemical products is expected to decline significantly, leading to improved capacity utilization in sectors like PX, polyester filament, methanol, and acetic acid [4] - The industry is anticipated to transition from localized recovery to comprehensive improvement between 2027 and 2028, supported by high entry barriers and reduced new capacity growth [4] Group 4: Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The PX industry chain is projected to provide significant profit elasticity for refining companies in 2026, driven by supply-demand imbalances and external factors such as sanctions and refinery attacks affecting oil exports [5] - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sinopec, with a suggestion to pay attention to Huajin Co [5]

恒力石化（600346）11月25日召开2025年第三季度业绩说明会，公司针对2025年第三季度的经营成果及 财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流。 据恒力石化介绍，近期，行业产能供给侧发生了很多积极的变化，不论是政策端不断加码和推进的反内 卷，还是海外频发的欧洲、日韩等石化产能的退出潮，都为下一个阶段行业供给端优化和供需结构向好 提供了有利条件。公司也将持续关注相关政策和行业进展。基于自身优势，公司将持续巩固提升成本护 城河优势，实施基于内部降本增效的持续成本改善，加快"高附加值技改+精品项目建设"并举的内生式 增长。 作为国内最早投产的民营大炼化企业，恒力石化拥有2000万吨/年炼化一体化项目、500万吨/年现代煤 化工装置、150万吨/年乙烯项目和1660万吨/年的PTA装置四大产能集群，构筑了"世界级化工型炼厂+现 代煤化工装置"集成的现代化产业体系，构建了"油煤化"深度融合的"大化工"战略支撑平台。同时，在 差异化纤维、功能性薄膜、工程塑料和可降解新材料等下游化工新材料领域拥有完善的产能布局，形成 了"大化工平台"和"新材料延伸"的体系化产业格局。 公司具有全产业链发展的战略领先优势、规模+工艺+ ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalanced, highlighting opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" trend [4][14][15] - The report notes that from Q3 2025, both technology and cyclical sectors have shown synchronized growth, indicating a shift in market dynamics [15][18] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with capital expenditure nearing its end and a significant decrease in ongoing projects [4][5][25] Group 2 - The chemical sector is positioned to enter a new cycle of prosperity, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance both performance and valuation [5][31][65] - The report identifies that the chemical industry has advantages over traditional cyclical sectors like steel and coal, particularly in capacity optimization and high-end transformation paths [25][30] - The report highlights that the chemical industry is experiencing a significant reduction in capital expenditure, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in ongoing projects as of H1 2025 [25][33] Group 3 - The report suggests that the domestic demand is stabilizing, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, which is expected to benefit the chemical sector [35][42] - The chemical industry has shown resilience in exports despite trade tensions, with a notable increase in export volumes to ASEAN, EU, and India [42][47] - The report indicates that the chemical industry is likely to see a dual uplift in performance and valuation, particularly when compared to the refrigerant sector, which is currently experiencing high demand [66][68]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603353 | 和顺石油 | 29.01 | -5.17% | 10.08万 | 2.95亿 | | 002493 | 荣盛石化 | 9.52 | -2.96% | 52.45万 | 5.05亿 | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 9.78 | -2.49% | 242.80万 | 23.83亿 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 5.84 | -2.18% | 199.47万 | 11.71亿 | | 000703 | 恒逸石化 | 6.96 | -1.83% | 16.63万 | 1.17亿 | | 000301 | 东方盛虹 | 9.69 | -1.32% | 19.63万 | 1.91亿 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 18.45 | -0.86% | 17.54万 | 3.25亿 | | 002408 | 齐翔腾达 | 4.79 | -0.83% | 17.72万 | 8519.88万 | | 000554 | 泰山石油 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]