今日（7月18日），化工板块开盘后持续上攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）震荡拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.63%。 成份股方面，截至发稿，聚氨酯龙头万华化学飙涨7%，华峰化学大涨超4%，新凤鸣、华鲁恒升、圣泉 集团等涨超3%，盐湖股份、藏格矿业、扬农化工等多股涨超2%。 | | | 分制 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 盘加 九粒 测试 工具 @ 0 > | | RIETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.62 | | | | | 516020(K.I.ETF) 10:24 价 0.624 图数 0.000(1.46%) 100 0.622 版交量 0 IOPV 0.6247 | | | 2025/07/18 | | 0.624 | | +0,009 +1,469 | | 0.620 | | 620 NASUN | | | | | | | 0.8596 ...

各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎来参加我们今天晚上的周期半月谈我是主持人陈建衡 参议院是否能够顺利通过也具有较多的不确定性所以总体来看这些事件性的驱动我们说还需要有一些时间去等待那么从国内的基本面来看我们看到前几个月 应该说数据各方面应该说开年那几个月是还行的但是随着时间推移边境下是有一定的放慢的迹象比如我们看到中美的关税摩擦的时候4月份中国对美国的出口是下滑的虽然阶段性目前可能在这个暂缓的过程当中有一些重新的抢出口但是大家普遍也预计到抢完这段的出口可能中国对美国或者说中间的这个转口贸易的抢出口也会开始放缓所以说在外区场面其实往后面几个月看是面临一些重新回落的风险的 那么内需场面看首先我们看到前面主要的逻辑是靠国补以新换旧的一个政策去刺激这些家电家具这些消费但边际上我们也看到有一些地方现在国补的面底第一个阶段的资金已经用完了可能正在等待第二个阶段的资金所以中间目前这个阶段有一点青黄不接 以及我们看到可能这些耐用品的补贴它可能会造成一些脉冲性的效果就是前面补的比较多可能后面反而有一些自然的回落因为有这些耐用品有可能会出现一些需求的透支那么加上从一些高频数据来看包括地产或者一些工业生产其实边际上也是来到二季度之后是有一些 ...

"乙二醇工艺包不同，实际运行效果也会不同，装置开车后差异显著。"天津大学教授简春贵强调，要重 视分布器和填料细节，同时将富余的低压蒸汽变成中压蒸汽，节省蒸汽消耗。他建议有条件的企业或乙 二醇生产企业集中的地区，要抱团向下游延伸产业链，提高产品附加值。 合成气制乙二醇目前正处于"规模扩张与技术深化"并行阶段，大型化装置成主流，同时加氢催化剂易结 焦、装置运行周期短及能耗高等问题仍需突破。针对这些问题，中科远东公司开发的专有技术已应用于 内蒙古、陕西等地的多套大型化乙二醇装置。该技术确保了催化剂能够保持高效的催化活性，同时防止 了反应物在催化剂表面形成难以清除的积炭层，有效延长了催化剂使用寿命，降低了生产成本。 华鲁恒升（600426）原副总工程师高岚介绍说，该公司采用宁波中科远东乙二醇生产技术建成了50万 吨/年乙二醇装置并一次性打通全流程，产品达聚酯级。"该装置催化剂使用寿命长，反应温度梯度、循 环气量稳定，整体实现安全稳定运行。"她说。 中化新网讯 7月10日至11日，乙二醇行业工艺技术及催化剂现场技术交流会在鄂尔多斯市达拉特旗召 开。与会专家围绕乙二醇工艺技术与催化剂应用的前沿情况，进行深入研讨和交流。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the basic chemical industry, showing that the demand is weak and the MDI price is running weakly. It details the price and profit changes of various chemical products in different sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical industries, and also tracks the stock price, market value, and profit of related listed companies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From July 11, 2025, the basic chemical index rose 1.5% in the past week, 2.5% in the past month, 11.1% in the past three months, 20.9% in the past year, and 8.9% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical rose 3.0% in the past week, Baofeng Energy fell 2.6%, Satellite Chemical fell 1.8%, and Hualu Hengsheng fell 1.5% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of July 11, 2025, Wanhua Chemical had a total market value of 174.9 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.033 billion yuan in 2024A, 13.966 billion yuan in 2025E, 16.864 billion yuan in 2026E, and 19.233 billion yuan in 2027E. Similar data is provided for Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 16,640 yuan/ton, 14,800 yuan/ton, and 12,120 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 300 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and + 120 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 3,565 yuan/ton, 2,765 yuan/ton, and 1,110 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 153 yuan/ton, - 295 yuan/ton, and + 213 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1,254 yuan/ton, 4,135 yuan/ton, 483 yuan/ton, and 4,211 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 56 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 102 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,931 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,304 yuan/ton, 2,046 yuan/ton, and 68 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 62 yuan/ton, 44 yuan/ton, and 119 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7,064 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 45 yuan/ton, 1,670 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 101 yuan/ton, 71 yuan/ton, and 145 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,228 yuan/ton, 1,808 yuan/ton, 4,255 yuan/ton, and 2,301 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 13 yuan/ton, + 11 yuan/ton, + 235 yuan/ton, and - 49 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 343 yuan/ton, 148 yuan/ton, 141 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 9 yuan/ton, + 3 yuan/ton, + 327 yuan/ton, and + 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: No specific content provided other than the mention of the index and related data in the data briefing section [12]. - **Polyurethane Sector**: Analyzes the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: Covers the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic动力煤, and naphtha, and the profit of different production processes such as ethane cracking, naphtha cracking, MTO, and CTO for producing PE and PP [24][30]. - **Coal - Chemical Sector**: Analyzes the price trends and profits of coal - coking products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials such as coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and PA6 [10][42].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 国家发改委：新增 100 亿元以工代赈投资助力重点群体就业。国家发展改 革委日前新增下达 100 亿元中央预算内投资，支持 26 个省（区、市）和新疆 生产建设兵团实施 1975 个以工代赈项目。这批项目预计发放劳务报酬 45.9 亿元，带动 31 万名重点人群就业，包括脱贫人口、返乡农民工等群体。项目 劳务报酬占中央投资比例提高至不低于 40%，重点实施村道巷道硬化等劳动 密集型工程。截至 6 月底，2025 年度以工代赈中央投资累计达 295 亿元，预 计带动 70 余万名困难群众就业，发放劳务报酬超 110 亿元。下一步，国家发 改委将推动项目全部开工建设，强化重点群体就业保障。（资料来源：同花顺） 数据来源：《七月金股汇》 2025 年 06 月 29 日， 东兴证券研究所 2.发改委等三部门：通过地方政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的零碳园区 项目。发改委等三部门印发开展零碳园区建设的通知，统筹利用现有资金渠 道支持零碳园区建设，鼓励各地区对零碳园区建设给予资金支持，通过地方 政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的项目。鼓励 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 3.商务部等 9 部门：联合印发《2025 年家政兴农行动工作方案》。该方案从四 个方面提出 14 项具体任务，旨在扩大家政服务供给，促进家政服务消费，助 力乡村振兴。主要措施包括：支持农村劳动力在家政领域就业，开展生活服 务招聘季活动；提升就业能力，推进家政服务员技能升级和职业教育发展； 完善就业保障，加强住房保障和基本公共服务；优化创业就业服务，支持重 点群体就业创业。下一步，商务部将联合相关部门推动政策落实，充分发挥 家政服务业在惠民生、稳就业、促消费方面的重要作用。（资料来源：同花顺） 4.中国人民银行：开展 1065 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作。人民银行 7 日公告称， 以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1065 亿元逆回购操作，中标利率为 1.4%。 今日公开市场有 3315 亿元逆回购到期，净回笼 2250 亿元。（资料来源：同花 顺） 5.三大交易所：正式实施程序化交易监管新规。7 月 7 日起，沪深北三大交易 所《程序化交易管理实施细则》正式实施，重点强化高频交易监管。新规明 确了四类异常交易行为认定标准，包括瞬时申报速率异常、频繁瞬时撤单等， 并将单账户每秒申报 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]