投资建议与投资标的 公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 光伏新增装机下滑，天然气价维持高位 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.23-2026.03.27） 核心观点 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 29 日 | 孙辉贤 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 | | --- | --- | | | sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙怡萱 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110002 | | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 用电需求上行，火电由负转正：公用事业 行业周报（2026.03.16-2026.03.20） 2026-03-22 十五五目标明确，强调电力市场改革：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.09- 2026.03.13） 2026-03-15 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.02- 2026.03.06） 2026-03-08 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后 ...

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 光伏新增装机下滑，天然气价维持高位 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.23-2026.03.27） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 29 日 | 孙辉贤 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 | | --- | --- | | | sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙怡萱 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110002 | | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 用电需求上行，火电由负转正：公用事业 行业周报（2026.03.16-2026.03.20） 2026-03-22 十五五目标明确，强调电力市场改革：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.09- 2026.03.13） 2026-03-15 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.02- 2026.03.06） 2026-03-08 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, the company completed a total power generation of 523.21 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.56% year-on-year [2] - The total on-grid electricity volume was 485.62 billion kWh, also down by 3.58% year-on-year [2] - The total heat supply reached 7,075.36 million GJ, a decline of 1.27% year-on-year, with residential heat supply decreasing by 3.15% [2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.77 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 253.38% [3] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be 1.04 yuan per share [3] Group 3: Capital and Pricing Strategies - The coal capacity price for 2025 was set at 100 yuan per kW, with compensation based on maximum output [3] - The capacity price for 2026 is expected to rise to 165 yuan per kW [3] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company aims to establish a comprehensive energy enterprise with a focus on thermal power, supported by energy storage and renewable energy [4] - Plans include optimizing existing projects and developing new energy projects in high-quality resource areas [4] Group 5: Investor Relations and Dividends - The profit distribution policy for 2025 has increased the proportion of distributable profits to 50% [4] - The company plans to implement cash dividends of 1.00 yuan per share, distributing approximately 1.8 billion yuan in total [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [1]. Core Insights - Electricity generation in January-February 2026 showed a significant recovery, with total generation reaching 15,718 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. Hydropower generation increased by 6.8%, while thermal power grew by 3.3% [2][5]. - The natural gas market is experiencing price increases due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices reaching $25.3/mmBtu, a 29.74% increase week-on-week [18][27]. Summary by Sections Electricity - In January-February 2026, electricity generation totaled 15,718 billion kWh, with thermal power contributing 10,539 billion kWh (3.3% YoY) and hydropower 1,560 billion kWh (6.8% YoY). The overall electricity demand increased by 6.1% YoY, driven primarily by the secondary industry [2][12]. - The secondary industry accounted for 64% of the electricity demand increase, with notable growth in manufacturing and high-energy-consuming sectors [12][13]. - Recommendations include investing in companies like Datang Power, China Power, and Huaneng Power for thermal power, and China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power for nuclear energy [16][17]. Natural Gas - The report highlights the impact of the recent attack on Qatar's LNG infrastructure, which has led to a 17% loss in production capacity and further price increases in the global natural gas market [18][27]. - As of March 20, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.04/mmBtu, while European prices saw significant increases, with TTF prices at €59.00/MWh (15.69% increase) and NBP prices at 149.95 pence/therm (19.01% increase) [19][27]. - Investment recommendations focus on LNG traders with international contracts, such as ENN Energy and Jiu Feng Energy, and unconventional gas resource companies benefiting from high gas prices [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [1]. Core Insights - Electricity generation in January-February 2026 showed a significant increase, with total generation reaching 15,718 billion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The growth was driven by a recovery in thermal power and an increase in hydropower generation [2][7]. - The natural gas market is experiencing price increases due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following an attack on Qatar's LNG infrastructure, which has led to a 29.74% increase in Northeast Asia LNG spot prices [22][32]. Summary by Sections Electricity - In January-February 2026, electricity generation reached 15,718 billion kWh, with thermal power contributing 10,539 billion kWh (up 3.3%) and hydropower 1,560 billion kWh (up 6.8%). The overall electricity demand increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with the secondary industry contributing 64% to the growth [2][14][17]. - The manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with significant growth in high-energy-consuming industries. The building materials sector recorded its first positive growth since March of the previous year, increasing by 1.0% [16][19]. Natural Gas - As of March 20, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.04/mmBtu, while the TTF spot price in Europe rose to €59.00/MWh, reflecting a 15.69% increase. The Northeast Asia LNG spot price reached $25.3/mmBtu, marking a 29.74% increase [22][23]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on natural gas prices, particularly the attack on Qatar's LNG facilities, which has led to a significant reduction in production capacity [32][40]. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, companies such as Datang Power, Jingtou Energy, and Huaneng Power are recommended due to expected positive growth in profitability [19]. - In the hydropower sector, companies like Guotou Power and Changjiang Power are suggested for their potential valuation recovery [19]. - The report also recommends focusing on LNG traders with international long-term contracts, such as Xin'ao Co. and Jiufeng Energy, as well as unconventional gas resource companies benefiting from high gas prices [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the recovery in electricity demand and the positive turnaround in thermal power generation [2][8] - It highlights the need for further reforms in the electricity market to accommodate a higher proportion of renewable energy consumption [8][19] - The report suggests that utility assets are likely to be revalued positively due to the restructuring of international order [8] Summary by Sections Electricity Demand and Generation - In January and February 2026, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 6.1% year-on-year, up from 3.3% in December 2025 [8] - The growth rates for different sectors were: primary industry +7.4%, secondary industry +6.3%, tertiary industry +8.3%, and residential use +2.7% [8] - The generation of electricity from large-scale power plants rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with thermal power generation increasing by 3.3% [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in the utility sector, particularly in thermal power companies such as: - Jiantou Energy (000600, Buy) - Huadian International (600027, Buy) - Guodian Power (600795, Buy) - Huaneng International (600011, Buy) - Anhui Energy (000543, Buy) [8] - It also suggests looking into gas companies and hydropower firms for potential investment opportunities [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Shenyang utility index fell by 2.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2% but outperforming the Wind All A index by 1.7% [8] - The report indicates that the coal prices have increased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 735 RMB/ton, up 0.8% week-on-week [35] Natural Gas Prices - The report highlights a significant increase in natural gas prices, with the Dutch TTF gas price rising by 18.2% week-on-week [48] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price was reported at 4868 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [50] Hydropower and Renewable Energy - The report suggests that hydropower has a simple and efficient business model, with the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour among all power sources [8] - It anticipates continued growth in wind and solar energy under carbon neutrality expectations, recommending leading companies in these sectors [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [4] Core Insights - Electricity demand is on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in total electricity consumption for January and February 2026, compared to a 3.3 percentage point increase from December 2025 [8] - The growth in electricity consumption is attributed to a recovery in economic activity and a low base effect from the previous year [12] - Power generation growth has rebounded, with thermal power growth turning positive at 3.3% year-on-year for January and February 2026 [19] - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment of low-priced utility assets amid international order restructuring [8] - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality asset for investment, benefiting from the ongoing reforms in the electricity market [8] Summary by Sections Electricity Demand and Supply - Total electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year-on-year in January and February 2026, with significant growth in primary (7.4%), secondary (6.3%), and tertiary industries (8.3%) [8][12] - Power generation from large-scale power plants rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with thermal power showing a recovery [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in the utility sector, particularly in thermal power companies such as: - Jiantou Energy (000600, Buy) - Huadian International (600027, Buy) - Guodian Power (600795, Buy) - Huaneng International (600011, Buy) - Anhui Energy (000543, Buy) [8] - For gas, companies like Shouhua Gas (300483, Not Rated) and Xintian Gas (603393, Not Rated) are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising natural gas prices [8] - In hydropower, quality assets in favorable basins are recommended for investment [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline in the Shenyang spot electricity price by 14.2% year-on-year, while Shanxi's price increased by 26.3% year-on-year [31][33] - Coal prices have risen, with Qinhuangdao's Q5500 coal price at 735 RMB/ton, reflecting a 9.2% increase year-on-year [35] - Natural gas prices have surged, with the Dutch TTF gas price increasing by 18.2% week-on-week [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on the construction of a new energy system, emphasizing the integration of various energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power [3][6]. - It notes the recent slight decline in global gas prices due to geopolitical tensions affecting LNG supply, particularly from Qatar, while also mentioning the stable domestic supply in the U.S. [14][20]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies, reflecting a diversified approach to energy investments [12][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting non-fossil energy sources and setting ambitious installation targets for nuclear, offshore wind, and pumped storage by 2030 [3][7]. - The plan aims to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the power system, optimize energy flow, and accelerate the development of smart grids and new energy storage solutions [6][8]. 2. Gas - The report discusses the impact of ongoing Middle Eastern tensions on global gas prices, with specific price data indicating fluctuations in various markets, including a 10.27% increase in U.S. Henry Hub spot prices [14][15]. - It highlights the current state of LNG prices in Northeast Asia, which have decreased by 13.33% recently, while also noting the overall supply constraints due to geopolitical factors [28][32]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the reporting period, while the gas sector lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions recent developments in energy safety and the approval of new energy storage projects in Inner Mongolia, indicating ongoing investments in energy infrastructure [39][42]. - It also highlights significant projects such as the completion of the first unit of the "Hualong One" nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, marking a milestone in China's nuclear energy development [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the energy sector, particularly in the context of the new energy system construction outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][7]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting a multi-energy approach including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, with specific capacity targets set for 2025 and 2030 [3][8]. - Natural gas prices have shown slight declines due to easing panic premiums and geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with various price metrics reflecting this trend [16][22]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a comprehensive strategy for carbon emission control and the development of a new energy infrastructure, focusing on the integration of various energy sources [3][7]. - Specific targets for nuclear power, offshore wind, and pumped storage have been established, aiming for significant capacity increases by 2030 [8][9]. 2. Natural Gas - Ongoing geopolitical tensions have impacted LNG supply from Qatar, leading to fluctuations in global gas prices, with recent data showing a decrease in prices across various markets [16][22]. - The report highlights the importance of U.S. domestic supply and demand dynamics, noting that the U.S. has reached its LNG export capacity limit, which contributes to price stability [16][30]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the utility, electricity, and environmental sectors have outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the gas sector has underperformed [39]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the approval of new energy projects and the establishment of safety protocols in energy production, emphasizing the importance of safety in the energy sector [42][45]. - The report mentions significant projects in renewable energy, including the construction of large-scale wind and solar facilities, which are expected to contribute to the energy transition [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility sector, indicating it is a worthwhile asset for investment [6][3]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes specific targets for the energy sector, including a 17% reduction in carbon emissions and a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption by the end of the plan [6][3]. - The report highlights the ongoing reform of the electricity market, aiming for a unified national electricity market by 2030 and a multi-dimensional pricing system that reflects various values of electricity [6][3]. - The utility sector has shown a recovery post-Chinese New Year, with the Shenwan Utility Index rising by 3.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.9 percentage points [6][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, driven by the restructuring of international order and the need for further market reforms to accommodate high proportions of renewable energy [6][3]. - Specific recommendations include: - Thermal Power: Expected improvement in dividend capacity and willingness, with recommended stocks including Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Waneng Power [6][3]. - Gas: Beneficiaries of high global gas prices include Shouhua Gas and Xintian Gas [6][3]. - Hydropower: Recommendations for high-quality hydropower stocks such as Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [6][3]. - Nuclear Power: Strong long-term growth potential with recommended stock China General Nuclear Power [6][3]. - Wind and Solar: Focus on leading companies with high wind power ratios, awaiting profitability recovery [6][3]. Industry Dynamics Tracking - Electricity prices in Guangdong and Shanxi have seen significant year-on-year declines, with Guangdong's average price down by 13.8% and Shanxi's by 25.0% [9][10]. - Domestic coal prices have decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 729 RMB/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week [13][14]. - International gas prices remain high, with the Dutch TTF gas price at 50.1 EUR/MWh, down 6.1% week-on-week but up 19.1% year-on-year [25][26]. - The Three Gorges Reservoir's outflow has increased, with a weekly average outflow of 8793 cubic meters/second, up 4.0% week-on-week [30][31]. Market Performance - The utility sector outperformed the broader market, with a 3.1% increase in the Shenwan Utility Index compared to a 0.2% increase in the CSI 300 Index [38][39]. - Sub-sector performance showed wind power leading with an 8.5% increase, followed by solar power at 5.3% [40][41].