期货交易咨询业务资格 证监许可【2011】1454号 多空博弈下的中枢抬升 ——2026Q2碳酸锂季度策略 东证衍生品研究院有色金属首席分析师：孙伟东 从业资格号：F3035243 投资咨询号：Z0014605 联系人：肖嘉颖 从业资格号：F03130556 图表：碳酸锂、氢氧化锂和锂辉石现货走势回顾 资料来源：Wind，SMM，东证衍生品研究院 继25Q4储能需求爆发、枧下窝复产不及预期带动碳酸锂价格快速拉涨后，2026Q1盘面继续暴力拉升，而后进入宽幅震荡。 1月中上旬：特朗普闪击委内瑞拉+正极材料厂联合减产挺价+出口退税取消政策落地+江西矿证问题再度发酵。盘面快速冲高，从月初 12.5万元/吨上涨至高点18.9万元/吨，涨幅51%。 1月中下旬至2月初：交易所宏观调控+特朗普提名沃什引发缩表担忧。至2月初，盘面最低跌至12.4万元/吨，跌幅达34%。 春节后至2月下旬：春节后下游需求回暖、淡季不淡，SMM库存连续数周大幅去化。2月25日津巴布韦宣布暂停所有锂矿出口。翌日盘 面跳空高开，最高至18.8万元/吨，随后冲高回落，该阶段涨幅达52%。 2月下旬至今：2月28日美以对伊朗打击行动落地，伊朗宣布关闭 ...

Market Overview - On March 27, all four major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63% to 3913.72, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.13% to 13760.37, the ChiNext Index up by 0.71% to 3295.88, and the STAR Market Index gaining 1.54% to 1662.72 [3][4]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector experienced a significant surge, with energy metals, chemical pharmaceuticals, and innovative drug sectors leading the gains. Conversely, the electricity, insurance, and banking sectors saw declines [4]. - Notable gainers in the lithium sector included companies like Yongshan Liye (+10.05% to 11.72), Shengxin Lithium Energy (+10.00% to 42.23), and Rongjie Co. (+10.00% to 78.00) [5]. - The electricity sector faced adjustments, with companies such as Guangdong Power A (-7.34% to 6.94) and Hunan Development (-7.22% to 16.96) experiencing significant losses [6]. Capital Flow - There was a net inflow of capital into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and biomedicine, while public utilities, banking, and transportation sectors saw net outflows [7]. - Specific stocks with notable net inflows included Ganfeng Lithium (15.32 billion), Shenjian Co. (8.36 billion), and Dongfang New Energy (8.02 billion) [7]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, the market may exhibit a structural differentiation in thematic sectors in the near term [9]. - CITIC Securities forecasts that oil transportation companies are expected to achieve record profits in 2026 [10]. - Huatai Securities anticipates that the global supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate will remain tight [11].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a widespread decline in lithium mining stocks, with Guocheng Mining and Dazhong Mining dropping over 5% [1] - Hainan Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Hebang Biology fell more than 4%, while Shengxin Lithium Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, Chuanfa Longmang, Tibet Zhufeng, Tianhua Xinneng, Huayou Cobalt, Tibet Mining, and Chuaneng Power dropped over 3% [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a decline of over 4%, trading at 150,220 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tibet Mining (000762) reported its total number of shareholders as 108,163 as of February 13 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company indicates that the production of the Zabuye Phase II project is currently not stable, and efforts are being made to achieve the targeted production levels [2]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company has stated that the Zabuye Phase II project has not yet reached stable production levels [2]. - The company is actively coordinating with various parties to address challenges and aims to achieve the targeted production as soon as possible [2]. - The company will comply with legal and regulatory requirements for timely information disclosure regarding the Zabuye Phase II project [2]. Group 2: Future Communication - Investors are advised to pay attention to the company's future disclosures, particularly in the 2025 annual report and related announcements [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tibet Mining (000762), indicated that the production situation and significant events for the first quarter will be disclosed according to the company's information releases [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform [1] - The company emphasized the importance of official information disclosure for understanding its first-quarter performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines has announced an immediate suspension of all unprocessed mineral and lithium concentrate exports, significantly impacting the global lithium supply chain [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. lithium producers saw significant stock price increases, with Sigma Lithium rising nearly 30% and Livent up 8% [1]. - In the A-share market, lithium-related stocks were notably active, with companies like Keli Yuan and Jinyuan shares hitting the daily limit, and Salt Lake shares increasing over 8% [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, with recent contracts reaching 175,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.84% increase [8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Zimbabwe is the fourth largest lithium producer globally and the largest in Africa, with over 90% of its lithium concentrate exported to China [7]. - The suspension of exports is part of a broader trend, as countries like Namibia and Botswana have implemented similar measures, reshaping the global lithium supply chain towards local processing [7]. - By 2025, Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate production is expected to account for 12% of global supply, with China importing 15.5% of its lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe [7]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Response - China's lithium upstream inventory is critically low, with less than 20,000 tons available, which may exacerbate supply shortages due to the export ban [10]. - The ban is expected to create a supply gap of up to 20,000 tons per month, further intensifying the existing supply-demand imbalance in the lithium market [11]. - The situation may lead to a short-term increase in lithium prices, benefiting domestic lithium companies and prompting them to accelerate overseas mining investments [13]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Huayou Cobalt holds a 51% stake in Zimbabwe's Arcadia lithium mine, with a lithium carbonate equivalent of 245,000 tons, and is developing a processing plant [14]. - Zhongkuang Resources fully controls Zimbabwe's Bikita lithium mine, which is the largest operational lithium mine in Africa, with a high lithium oxide grade [14]. - Tianqi Lithium has full control over the Talison lithium mine, ensuring a self-sufficient resource rate and benefiting from rising lithium prices [14]. - Ganfeng Lithium, a global leader in the lithium industry, has a diversified resource layout and is well-positioned to avoid risks from Zimbabwe's export ban [15].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal stocks in the A-share market have collectively strengthened, with significant price increases observed in several companies, driven by rising raw material costs and strategic pricing adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry and Yunnan Zinc Industry both reached the daily limit increase of 10.01% [1][2]. - Zhongtung High-tech saw an increase of over 8.11%, while Dongfang Tantalum Industry rose by over 6.70% [1][2]. - Other notable performers include Xianglu Tungsten Industry, Rongjie Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Yongxing Materials, all increasing by over 4% [1][2]. - Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tibet Mining also experienced gains of over 3% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry announced a price adjustment for its welding machine clamp blades due to the continuous rise in tungsten raw material prices, effective from February 26, 2026 [1]. - The U.S. White House plans to utilize an AI model developed by the Department of Defense to establish reference prices for critical global mineral trades, starting with germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, which has led to a significant increase in lithium-related stocks in the A-share market [1][2] - The suspension aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [1][2] - Zimbabwe is the largest lithium exporter in Africa and the second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, with a reported import of approximately 7.75 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 39.4% [1] Group 2 - The ban on lithium exports is a significant shift from the previously planned full ban in 2027, causing global disruptions in the lithium supply chain and increasing the short-term supply gap [2] - The price of lithium carbonate surged nearly 12% to 187,700 yuan per ton following the announcement [1][2] - Various lithium-related stocks saw substantial gains, with companies like Jinyuan Co. and Keli Yuan nearing their daily limit up, reflecting strong market sentiment [1][3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, which has led to a significant increase in the stock prices of lithium-related companies in the A-share market [1][2]. - The suspension aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged nearly 12% to 187,700 yuan per ton following the announcement, indicating heightened market volatility and demand for lithium [1][2]. Group 2 - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports has been implemented much earlier than the previously planned full ban in 2027, causing disruptions in the global lithium supply chain [2]. - This action is expected to directly reduce global lithium production, exacerbating the shortage of concentrates and increasing price elasticity in the short term [2]. - As of January to December 2025, China imported approximately 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of about 39.4%, primarily from Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria [1].