2026 年 03 月 24 日 农林牧渔 农产品涨价或持续，叠加政策引导生猪 产能有望去化 生猪养殖：政策严控叠加养殖亏损，关注能繁去化进度 价格端：本周生猪均价 10.06 元/kg，周环比-1.18%，两周环比- 2.40%；仔猪价格 379 元/头，周环比-10.19%，两周环比-8.02%。根 据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 15.94 元/kg，周环比-1.35%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 17.30 万头，周环比变动 23.74%。 周观点：政策严控叠加养殖亏损，关注能繁去化进度。涌益咨询数据 显示，本周猪价处于破线磨底状态，多省出栏均价跌破 10.0 元/kg， 供需状态并未出现转机。供应角度，规模猪场积极性相对偏高，有减 重去库动作，但下游匹配稍弱，实质性消耗速度仍慢；二次育肥等支 撑因素存在，但效果不强，未产生明显托举力度。需求角度，近期屠 企宰量稳步上移，刚需稳定叠加分割订单及少量入库，生猪消化水平 有所提升，但对应供应量仍显不足，预计短期猪价震荡偏弱。 3 月 3 日相关部门召集多家养殖企业召开专题会议，明确提出能繁母 猪存栏量或将进一步下调至 3650 万头，计划调降幅 ...

量化金融研究丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 农牧渔 ETF 景顺（560210）：生猪产能去化+种 业振兴，布局农业变革核心赛道 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 农牧渔指数行业分布呈现"核心聚焦、多元协同"的格局，重点倾斜生猪、种子两大热门细分 方向，具体分布如下：截至 2026 年 3 月 17 日，整体以养殖业为核心，占比高达 47.41%，单 只样本股权重上限为 15%，前两大权重股权重高度集中，规模化集中、行业向头部聚集的发展 趋势，凸显生猪赛道的核心价值与投资潜力；种植业占比 15.52%，重点覆盖种子这一热门细 分方向，贴合国家种业振兴政策导向，受益于生物育种产业化推进的行业红利，彰显种子作为 农业"芯片"的核心地位。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 秦瑶 刘胜利 SAC：S0490513080002 SAC：S0490517070006 SFC：BWH883 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 2 [Table_ ...

2）仔猪补栏旺季不旺，滞销压力有望加速产能去化。从历史规律来看，年后通常是仔猪补栏旺季，需求往往推高 价格，即便在2023年的下行周期中，仔猪年后利润仍有走高，上半年盈利较为可观；而2026年年后仔猪盈利已跌 至盈亏平衡线附近，截止本周仔猪价格回落至294元/头（23年同期价格557元/头），头均利润收窄至14元/头（23 年同期利润237元/头），反映出当前仔猪市场的低迷。仔猪滞销压力向上传导至能繁母猪端，在仔猪难销与资金 链紧绷的双重挤压下，行业或被迫加速淘汰母猪，形成"仔猪跌价→育肥户观望→仔猪难销→母猪承压"的反馈传 导链条，产能去化有望步入快车道。 3）投资建议：反内卷下出栏弹性系统性收窄，重视超额盈利的好公司。从2026年头均市值看，其中神农集团 4000+元/头，牧原股份、德康农牧、温氏股份、华统股份等2000+元/头、立华股份、天康生物、巨星农牧、新希 望、唐人神等2000元/头以内；估值处在历史相对底部区间（数据截至2026年3月21日）。在标的上，当前阶段， 【板块β配置、重视核心资产】，推荐养殖龙头【牧原股份】、【温氏股份】、【德康农牧】，相关标的：【天康 生物】、【神农集团】、【立华股 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]112 2026-03-22 活体库存去化过程开启 姓名：朱殿霄 从业资格号：F3079229 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018269 一 数据概览及行情观点 数据概览及行情策略 | 维度 | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上期 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 解析与预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 标猪全国均价 | 元/公斤 | 9.87 | 10.03 | -0.16 | -1.60% | 本周现货价格继续下滑，钢联数据显示3月20日当周全国毛猪均价9.87元/公斤，环比下跌0.16 元/公斤。全国毛猪均价全线跌破10元/公斤，白条价格跟随下跌。 | | | 标猪河南均价 | 元/公斤 | 9.94 | 9.99 | -0.05 | -0.50% | | | | 标猪陕西均价（最优交割地） | 元/公斤 | 10.83 | 11.6 | -0.77 | -6.64% | | | | 白条价格 | 元/公斤 | 13.15 | 15.3 | -2.15 | -14.05% | | | ...

农林牧渔行业：节后猪价加速下行， 产能去化在即 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季不旺，年后加速探底。农业农村部监测数据显示，2026 年 2 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 27.57 元/公斤、12.82 元/公斤和 23.73 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 8.62%、-2.73%和 1.43%。2 月猪价年前转跌，3 月猪价加速下行，截至 3 月 10 日，全国外三元生猪均价 10.40 元/公斤。 供应端：2 月有效出栏天数因春节假期缩减，节前出栏集中，市场生猪供应充 足；节后养殖端出栏积极性持续，规模场出栏节奏逐步恢复，供给端持续放量。 需求端：春节后需求支撑消退，消费进入传统淡季，终端走货不畅。2 月生猪 屠宰开工率环比下降 8.22 个百分点至 28.02%。节后饲料成本上调，二次育肥 养殖户对短期猪价信心不足，入场谨慎，难以对猪价形成有效支撑。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头，相 比 10 月末进一步下降。从三方数据来看，2 月涌益能繁存栏样本数据环比回 升 0.73%，钢联样本数据环比下降 0.02%。我们预计，2 月底以来行业步入深 度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the benchmark index [43]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the international regional conflicts are driving an upward trend in agricultural product prices, particularly affecting planting costs due to disruptions in fertilizer supply [3]. - In the livestock sector, pig prices are at a low point, with a current price around 10 CNY/kg, and the supply pressure is greater than the recovery in demand [4]. - The pet industry is expected to grow, supported by large domestic exhibitions and increasing revenue growth from local brands [2]. Summary by Sections Planting - The Middle East conflicts are causing global agricultural supply and demand fluctuations, with significant impacts on fertilizer supply and increased planting costs. Recent price increases include corn at 2,447 CNY/ton (up 1.2%), wheat at 2,578 CNY/ton (up 1.4%), and soybean meal at 3,439 CNY/ton (up 8%). The report remains optimistic about the agricultural price boom benefiting planting companies and recommends leading corn seed company Kangnong Seed [3]. Livestock - Pig prices continue to decline, currently around 10.2 CNY/kg, with increasing average weights at slaughter. The demand recovery is insufficient to counterbalance supply pressures, leading to continued price pressure. The report notes that while piglet sales are still profitable, prices are gradually decreasing, and the expectation of capacity reduction will persist [4]. Pet Industry - The report notes the successful launch of major pet exhibitions, such as the Shenzhen Pet Expo, which featured 10,000 brands. The growth of domestic pet brands is a key indicator of investment value in this sector [5]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope. For the agricultural product chain, recommended stocks include Morning Light Bio, Noposion, and Kangnong Seed. In the pet sector, recommended stocks include Guobao Pet and Petty Holdings [5][37].

| 证券代码：000876 | 证券简称：新希望 公告编号：2026-24 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127049 | 债券简称：希望转 2 | 托管在银行间市场清算所股份有限公司的债券，其兑付资金由发 行人在规定时间之前划付至银行间市场清算所股份有限公司指定的 收款账户后，由银行间市场清算所股份有限公司在兑付日划付至债券 持有人指定的银行账户。债券兑付日如遇法定节假日，则划付资金的 时间相应顺延。债券持有人资金汇划路径变更，应在兑付前将新的资 金汇划路径及时通知银行间市场清算所股份有限公司。因债券持有人 资金汇划路径变更未及时通知银行间市场清算所股份有限公司而不 能及时收到资金的，发行人及银行间市场清算所股份有限公司不承担 由此产生的任何损失。 三、本次付息/兑付相关机构 新希望六和股份有限公司 关于 2021 年度第一期中期票据（乡村振兴）兑付公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为保证新希望六和股份有限公司 2021 年度第一期中期票据（乡 村振兴）（债券简称：21 希望六和 MTN001（乡村振兴）,债券代码： 10 ...

| 证券代码：000876 | 证券简称：新希望 | 公告编号：2026-23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127049 | 债券简称：希望转2 | | 新希望六和股份有限公司 关于2025年度第二期科技创新债券(乡村振兴) 联系人：赵亮 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 为保证新希望六和股份有限公司2025年度第二期科技创新债券 (乡村振兴)(债券简称：25希望六和SCP002(科创债),债券代码： 012581437)兑付工作的顺利进行，现将有关事宜公告如下: 发行人名称 新希望六和股份有限公司 债项名称 新希望六和股份有限公司2025年度第二期科技创新 债券(乡村振兴) 债项简称 25希望六和SCP002(科创债) 债项代码 012581437 发行金额（元） 500,000,000.00 起息日 2025年06月20日 发行期限 270日 债项余额（元） 500,000,000.00 最新评级情况 AAA 偿还类别 本息 本计息期债项利率 1.85% 一、本期债券基本情况 | 本金兑付日 | 2026年03月1 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Sector Industry Overview - The swine farming sector is currently facing significant challenges due to persistently low pork prices, leading to industry losses for over five months. Major players like Muyuan Foods are experiencing cash flow pressures. [1][2] - The expected price range for pork in March is between 10-11 CNY/kg, with a historical high average slaughter weight of 125 kg indicating weak demand for large pigs. [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Production Capacity and Supply Trends**: - The breeding sow inventory is approximately 39.6 million heads, with a potential reduction of 3.1 million heads to 36.5 million due to policy adjustments and limitations on large group expansions. This reduction will significantly impact supply. [1][3] - The industry is in a critical phase of capacity clearance, with cash flow pressures becoming widespread among leading companies, including Muyuan Foods. [2] - **Market Dynamics**: - The slaughtering sector is experiencing high inventory levels (60%-70%), primarily due to poor sales leading to passive storage. This could result in concentrated market sell-offs in June and July. [1][9] - The price of cull sows has dropped to approximately 7 CNY/kg, attracting slaughterhouses due to cost advantages, which partially offsets price declines. [1][5] - **Price Expectations**: - The consensus among industry participants is that pork prices are likely to remain weak until at least May, with potential for a slight rebound in mid-March due to secondary fattening expectations. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious. [4][10] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the second half of 2026, with some expecting a recovery in prices to 14-16 CNY/kg, while others remain pessimistic due to ongoing supply pressures. [4] Additional Important Insights - **Culling Trends**: - The culling of sows is accelerating, but not to the extent of panic selling. The structure of culling has shifted towards younger sows (3-4 litters), while older sows (4-5 litters) are being culled more frequently. [5] - **Cash Flow Risks**: - The industry is monitoring "weight reduction" as a key indicator of cash flow risks. A significant drop in average slaughter weight could indicate severe cash flow issues. [6] - **Piglet Market**: - The current price for piglets is around 340 CNY/head, with profitability still present despite declining transaction volumes. The focus is on the late March period, which is typically a peak for restocking. [7][11] - **Regional Insights**: - In the Linyi region, the expansion of free-range farming is expected to stabilize in 2026, with risk management tools like hedging and price insurance being utilized to mitigate losses. [8] Recommendations - The swine farming sector is currently at a historical valuation low, suggesting a potential investment opportunity. Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Shennong Group, with additional focus on flexible stocks like Juxing Agriculture and Lihua Agricultural. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies this year, with policy synergy being a highlight. The capital scale in three aspects has reached new highs, and the central government has arranged 100 billion yuan to launch a package of fiscal - financial cooperation policies to boost domestic demand [18][2][16]. - The Fed's monetary policy outlook faces increased uncertainty due to a weakening labor market and rising geopolitical risks, and there may be a risk of stagflation in the US [33]. - The impact of the Two Sessions on the bond market is generally neutral. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and future focus should be on changes in risk appetite, market expectations for interest rate cuts, and price recovery [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 slowed to 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in Q3 2025 and 5.4% in Q4 2024 [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a decline [1]. - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7.2208 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The government will continue to implement more active fiscal policies this year, with the total expenditure exceeding 30 trillion yuan, new government bond issuance reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and central government transfer payments to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2][18]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and handling fees for some futures contracts [3][4]. - A large amount of funds have flowed into oil and gas assets through ETFs and linked funds, but the "return dilution" phenomenon has reappeared [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 8, the retail prices of pure gold jewelry of major domestic brands were around 1,583 - 1,590 yuan per gram, and some brands have announced or plan to raise prices [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.4278 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces month - on - month [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - The coking coal market in February 2026 showed a weak and volatile trend, and in March, the supply - demand fundamentals improved, but prices may fluctuate rather than rise unilaterally [9]. - Due to the reduction in nickel ore production quotas, Indonesia's nickel processing capacity utilization rate may drop to 70 - 75% in 2026, and nickel ore imports are expected to increase significantly [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices will be raised at 24:00 on March 9. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices have reached record weekly highs [9]. - Due to the conflict in Iran, major oil - producing countries have cut production, and the prices of crude oil and natural gas have risen [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In February 2026, the sales volume of pig products of three listed pig enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year performance varied [13]. - Ukraine's grain exports for the 2026/27 season are expected to include 14 million tons of wheat, 25 million tons of corn, and 2.5 million tons of barley [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature in the central bank's open market [15]. - The central bank carried out 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on March 6, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan on that day [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - Institutions predict that the Spring Festival effect will drive a significant year - on - year rebound in February's CPI, and rising non - ferrous metal prices will support the increase in PPI [16]. - The central bank will implement moderately loose monetary policies this year, use various policy tools flexibly, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It will also support the capital market and expand the scale of re - loans [16][17]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China remained in a consolidation state, with slightly differentiated yields of major interest - rate bonds, and short - term bonds performed better [26]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond index rose [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 22 points at the 16:30 close on March 9, and the US dollar index fell 0.09% in New York trading [31]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased for seven consecutive months, and gold reserves have increased for 16 consecutive months [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there may be five major expected differences in the market, and there is a risk of "insufficient policy momentum" in the second half of the year [33]. - CICC and other institutions believe that the economic growth target in the government work report takes into account long - term sustainability and short - term necessity, and policies focus on both quantity and quality [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 9, 277 bonds will be listed, 123 bonds will be issued, 99 bonds will make payments, and 479 bonds will repay principal and interest [36]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC will improve the market - stabilizing mechanism, develop diversified equity financing, and support the development of the futures and derivatives market [38]. - The central bank will cooperate with the CSRC to support the capital market and enhance its stability and vitality [38]. - The A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.38%, and some sectors such as power grid equipment and medical stocks performing strongly [39].