短期业绩承压致板块回调，估值区间再具配置价值 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块下跌 10.03%，表现劣于大盘；其中， 特钢板块下跌 9.18%，长材板块下跌 8.88%，板材板块下跌 10.2 9%；铁矿石板块下跌 10.96%，钢铁耗材板块下跌 12.52%，贸易流 通板块下跌 3.272%。 ➢ 供给情况。截至 3 月 20 日，样本钢企高炉产能利用率 85.5%，周环 比增加 2.61 百分点。截至 3 月 20 日，样本钢企电炉产能利用率 56. 6%，周环比增 ...

短期业绩承压致板块回调，估值区间再具配置价值 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [短期业绩承压致板块回调，估值区间再具配置价值 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cind ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, highlighting a value reassessment period driven by the "anti-involution" trend and supply-side reforms [2]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is transitioning from a capacity expansion model to a focus on quality and efficiency, driven by stricter capacity replacement policies, upgraded environmental standards, and dual control of energy consumption. Leading companies are leveraging technological upgrades and product structure optimization to build differentiated advantages, which is expected to enhance profitability [2]. - The report identifies three main drivers of the steel industry's "anti-involution": policy constraints on capacity and carbon emissions management, the rise of high-end manufacturing and new energy steel demand, and low-carbon technology and product upgrades on the supply side [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for the industry to increase the scrap steel ratio to 40% and shift from construction steel to manufacturing steel, particularly in light of the real estate downturn and the growth of plate and special steel [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The steel products include pig iron, crude steel, and steel materials, categorized by chemical composition into carbon steel and alloy steel, and by form into long products, flat products, pipes, and others [6][8]. - The global steelmaking process primarily utilizes long processes (blast furnace-converter) and short processes (electric arc furnace), with the latter significantly reducing carbon emissions [11][13]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Chinese steel industry has seen a decline in demand due to a significant drop in real estate, with traditional sectors peaking and new sectors continuing to grow. The current supply-demand imbalance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic policies and industry self-discipline [4][36]. - The report forecasts that from 2025 to 2030, the global iron ore supply will increase while Chinese steel demand is expected to decline, leading to a significant oversupply and downward pressure on prices [25]. Production and Consumption Trends - China's crude steel production is projected to decrease from 1.035 billion tons in 2021 to 850 million tons by 2030, with an annual decline rate of 2.2%. Meanwhile, the apparent consumption is expected to drop from 995 million tons to 770 million tons during the same period [50]. - The report highlights a structural shift in steel consumption, with traditional sectors declining and new sectors, such as high-strength and specialized products, experiencing growth [41][43]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a concentrated market structure, with the top ten steel producers in China accounting for over 51.6% of total crude steel production in 2024. China Baowu Steel Group leads with a production of 130.09 million tons, significantly ahead of its closest competitor [32][33].

证券代码：002075 证券简称：沙钢股份 公告编号：临2026-003 江苏沙钢股份有限公司 关于变更审计项目合伙人的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 江苏沙钢股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 7 日、4 月 30 日 分别召开了第八届董事会第十七次会议和 2024 年度股东大会，审议通过了《关 于续聘公司会计师事务所的议案》，同意续聘天衡会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） （以下简称"天衡事务所"）为公司 2025 年度审计机构，聘期为一年。具体内容 详见刊登于 2025 年 4 月 9 日、5 月 6 日公司规定媒体《中国证券报》《上海证 券报》《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网上（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于续聘 公司会计师事务所的公告》（公告编号：临 2025-012）、《2024 年度股东大会 决议公告》（公告编号：临 2025-016）。 近日，公司收到天衡事务所出具的《变更签字注册会计师的函》，现将具体 情况公告如下： 一、本次审计项目合伙人变更情况 （一）基本信息 项目合伙人：陆德忠， ...

- The GAN_GRU factor is based on the GAN_GRU model, which utilizes Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time series features and then employs the GRU model for time series feature encoding to derive the stock selection factor[4][13] - The GAN_GRU model includes two GRU layers (GRU(128, 128)) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet) used as the stock selection factor[22] - The GAN model consists of a generator and a discriminator. The generator aims to generate data that appears real, while the discriminator aims to distinguish between real and generated data. The generator's loss function is $L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))]$ and the discriminator's loss function is $L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{d a t a}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))]$[23][24][27] - The GAN_GRU model's training process involves alternating between training the generator and the discriminator until convergence[29][30] - The GAN_GRU factor's performance from February 2019 to February 2026 shows an IC mean of 0.1096, an annualized excess return of 22.32%, and an ICIR (non-annualized) of 0.87[41][42] - The latest IC value as of February 25, 2026, is -0.0105, with a one-year IC mean of 0.0517[41][42] - The top five industries for the GAN_GRU factor in February 2026, based on IC, are Electric Utilities, Retail, Real Estate, Construction, and Basic Chemicals, with IC values of 0.1257, 0.1196, 0.1151, 0.1130, and 0.1063, respectively[44] - The top five industries for the GAN_GRU factor over the past year, based on IC mean, are Steel, Computers, Media, Retail, and Food & Beverage, with IC means of 0.1404, 0.1175, 0.1132, 0.1014, and 0.0989, respectively[44] - The top five industries for the GAN_GRU factor's long positions in February 2026, based on excess returns, are Oil & Petrochemicals, Communications, Electronics, Non-ferrous Metals, and Computers, with excess returns of 7.91%, 3.11%, 3.06%, 2.78%, and 2.78%, respectively[45] - The top five industries for the GAN_GRU factor's long positions over the past year, based on average monthly excess returns, are Real Estate, Retail, Automobiles, Construction, and Consumer Services, with excess returns of 3.83%, 2.04%, 1.93%, 1.50%, and 1.49%, respectively[46] **Performance Metrics of GAN_GRU Factor:** - IC: 0.1096[41][42] - ICIR (non-annualized): 0.87[41][42] - Turnover Rate: 0.82X[41][42] - Recent IC: -0.0105[41][42] - One-year IC: 0.0517[41][42] - Annualized Return: 38.13%[41][42] - Annualized Volatility: 23.18%[41][42] - Information Ratio (IR): 1.64[41][42] - Maximum Drawdown: 27.29%[41][42] - Annualized Excess Return: 22.32%[41][42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.05%, reaching 5.83 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 223 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.78%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.79 billion yuan [1] - Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. was established on September 28, 1999, and listed on October 25, 2006, primarily engaged in the production and sales of special steel through black metal smelting and rolling processing [1] - The main business revenue composition of Jiangsu Shagang is 93.25% from steel and steel billet sales, while other sales account for 6.75% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Jiangsu Shagang, a fund under Southern Fund ranks among them, specifically the Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100), which reduced its holdings by 155,100 shares in the third quarter, now holding 16.0571 million shares, representing 0.73% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) was established on September 29, 2016, with a latest scale of 78.996 billion yuan, achieving a year-to-date return of 9.26% and a one-year return of 30.14% [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) is Cui Lei, who has a cumulative tenure of 7 years and 112 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 137.02 billion yuan, achieving the best return of 250.66% and the worst return of -15.93% during the tenure [2]

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].

Group 1 - The company has not yet sold products to EU countries or related regions as of February 5 [2] - An investor inquired about the revenue proportion from sales to EU countries and whether it comes solely from domestic sales [2] - The company responded on the investor interaction platform regarding the lack of sales to the EU [2]

Group 1: Price Adjustments by Shagang - Shagang adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction steel varieties effective February 1, 2026, based on the January 21 price adjustment [1][3] - The price for HRB400 rebar (Ф16-20mm) remains stable at 3450 CNY/ton, with additional charges for various specifications ranging from 30 to 250 CNY/ton [1][3] - The price for HPB300 high wire (Ф6-10mm) is stable at 3470 CNY/ton, and the price for HRB400 screw thread (Ф8-10mm) is stable at 3560 CNY/ton [4] Group 2: Price Adjustments by Zhongtian Steel - Zhongtian Steel Group adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction materials effective February 1, 2026, based on the January 20 price adjustment [6] - The price for HRB400 rebar (Ф18mm) is stable at 3400 CNY/ton, with additional charges for various specifications ranging from 30 to 250 CNY/ton [6] - The price for HPB300 high wire (Ф8-12mm) is stable at 3700 CNY/ton, and the price for HRB400 screw thread (Ф8-10mm) is also stable at 3700 CNY/ton [2][6]