证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 30 年 月 日 农林牧渔 生猪全面步入亏损，大宗原料成本稳步抬升 生猪养殖：月底全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价跌至 10 元/kg 下方，亏损程度加 深。市场股票经历反弹后大幅回调，参与度依旧较低，我们预计未来较长 时间成本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数据变化仍将继续催化， 建议投资者关注亏损阶段的配置机会。当前估值仍位于相对低位，关注低 成本的猪企的配置机会，关注德康农牧、温氏股份、牧原股份、立华股份、 巨星农牧、天康生物、正邦科技等。 大宗农产品：原油持续高位运行，预计带动生产成本上涨同时拉动需求扩 张，影响程度排序为植物油类、橡胶为先，其次为白糖、玉米，粮食类小 麦、稻谷为后。当前主要大宗农产品虽经历了部分上涨，定价仍未充分， 基本面反应在后但有望跟随，关注植物油类、橡胶、白糖、玉米等相关对 应标的。 菌菇：本月金针菇价格保持超预期景气，板块标的业绩发布兑现高增，主 营产品价格景气持续，冬虫夏草作为重点新产品放量期临近，年度配置价 值高，建议关注板块重点标的众兴菌业、雪榕生物、华绿生物等。 养殖配套：农产品上下游价格波动加剧，畜禽价格尚 ...

Rating, target price, and earnings estimate changes Equity Research Report 24 March 2026 China's hog industry Equities 1Q preview: Losses to widen, net profit likely lowest in 2026 1Q26 preview: industry steeped in losses. Hog prices have fallen to around RMB10/kg y-t-d, driving the entire hog breeding sector into deep losses, especially since the Spring Festival. Based on monthly data, we expect only the companies with strong cost control (Muyuan and Wens) to have remained marginally profitable in January- ...

投资要点： 把握宠物估值低位，看好国内市场增长 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：体重仍在高位，预期价格继续低迷。种植：国际区域冲突局势，继续看好农 产品上涨趋势。宠物: 把握宠物估值低位，看好国内市场增长。 [Table_Summary] 种植：国际区域冲突局势，继续看好农产品上涨趋势。 随着中东区域冲突持续，国际能源市场大幅波动。能源价格上涨通 常会提升生物柴油的经济性，从而增加对植物油原料的需求预期。 近期主要农产品价格维持高位。截至 2026 年 3 月 27 日，我国大豆 现货价格 4277 元/吨 ...

证券代码：002100 证券简称：天康生物 天康生物股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026-001 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | ☑券商策略会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 公司参加中信证券、长江证券、国泰海通证券分别在北京、成 | | 人员姓名 | 都、深圳举办的 2026 年度春季策略会，中信证券、长江证券、 | | | 国泰海通证券、天风证券、融通基金、南方基金、富国基金、 | | | 天弘基金、广发基金等机构共 59 位机构投资者参与。名单详 | | | 见附件清单。 | | | （重要提示：参会人员名单由会议举办方提供并经整理后展示。公司 | | | 无法保证参会人员及其单位名称的完整性、准确性，请投资者注意。） | | 时间 | 2026 年 3 月 20 日-2026 年 3 月 25 日 | | 地点 | 北京、成都、深圳 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事会秘书 于振江 | | 员姓名 | | | 投资者关系活动 | 一、 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is currently facing a downturn due to oversupply, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices. As of mid-March 2026, the average price for live pigs in China dropped to 10.16 yuan per kilogram [5] - The report highlights that the pet food sector continues to grow, with domestic sales showing a positive trend. In 2025, the growth rate for pet food on major e-commerce platforms was reported at 10%, with specific growth rates of 5%, 9%, and 24% for Tmall, JD, and Douyin respectively [5] Pig Farming Industry - The first quarter of 2026 saw a significant drop in pig prices due to increased supply from higher sow production and heavy weights at slaughter. This resulted in a negative outlook for pig farmers, with an average loss of approximately 297.68 yuan per head for self-bred pigs and 141.48 yuan for purchased piglets by March 20, 2026 [5] - The report anticipates that the pig farming industry will remain in a state of oversupply for some time, with prices expected to stabilize at a low level without a significant upward trend in the short term. The industry is facing multiple challenges, including falling pig prices, declining piglet prices, and rising feed costs [5] - Investment recommendations suggest that the current phase of the cycle presents opportunities, particularly as the elimination of sows may catalyze a future upturn. Companies with cost advantages are expected to show better profitability, with specific recommendations for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tian Kang Biological, and Juxing Agriculture [5] Animal Health Sector - The report notes that the demand for animal health products is currently under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 19.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, some companies are making progress in new product development and market expansion, indicating potential for internal growth [5] - Companies such as Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological are highlighted for their strong growth potential due to ongoing advancements in vaccine development and stable operational performance [5] Pet Food Sector - The domestic pet food market is experiencing sustained growth, with local brands enhancing their product offerings and market presence. The report projects that revenue and net profit for these brands will see rapid growth in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [5] - In terms of exports, the pet food sector faced challenges in 2025, with a reported export value of 10.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.06%. The report suggests that trade conflicts and currency fluctuations have impacted export performance [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently facing significant challenges, with pig prices dropping below 10 RMB/kg, reaching a nearly seven-year low, and some areas reporting prices below 9.5 RMB/kg. The average weight of pigs at market remains at a five-year high, indicating that inventory reduction is the primary focus, with no signs of price stabilization [1][1][1]. - The industry is experiencing an average loss of over 350 RMB per head, placing it in a historically deep loss zone [1][1][1]. Key Insights - The price of weaned piglets has seen a seasonal decline post-Chinese New Year, with current prices around 280 RMB per head. Exporting piglets is not profitable, leading some companies to incur losses on exports [1][1][1]. - Despite some demand for piglets from specialized fattening households and free-range groups, the price guidance before September is only around 12 RMB+, suggesting limited potential for price recovery, with risks of falling below cost levels again [1][1][1]. Cost Challenges - The industry has experienced rapid cost reductions over the past two years, primarily due to favorable conditions such as lower feed raw material prices and improved production efficiency from upgraded breeding stock. However, the industry now faces new challenges that may lead to rising costs [3][3][3]. - **Feed Price Increases**: Corn prices have risen nearly 10% year-on-year due to mold issues in North China, while soybean meal faces uncertainties related to customs and tariffs, keeping spot prices strong [3][3][3]. - **Production Efficiency Challenges**: The peak of production efficiency improvements from breeding stock replacements has passed, and during this low cycle, maintaining production, operations, disease control, and employee motivation becomes increasingly difficult, negatively impacting efficiency [3][3][3]. - **Capacity Utilization Issues**: Companies are unable to expand further, leading to underutilization of fattening capacity and difficulties in starting up delivered pig farms, which will affect cost amortization [3][3][3]. Market Outlook - The combination of losses across all segments of pig farming and rising costs suggests a clearer logic for accelerated capacity reduction. Companies with high costs and debt levels are likely to be the primary candidates for capacity exit [3][3][3]. - There is optimism for left-side investment opportunities in the sector, with recommended stocks including Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, Shennong, Tiankang, Lihua, and Juxing [4][4][4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market this week will continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live inventory is expected to enter the destocking phase. The theoretical supply in March is at a high level both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the consumption is in the seasonal off - season, so the spot price is expected to remain under pressure. The breeding side is in deep loss with tight cash flow, increasing the sales enthusiasm. With the requirement to reduce the sales weight, the live inventory may decline. From the trend of new piglet data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second quarter will decline to some extent, and factors for the spot price to stabilize and rebound may be accumulating [7]. - In the futures market, one can consider selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts, including selling deep out - of - the - money call options of LH2605 and LH2607 contracts. For the unilateral strategy, short the near - month contracts on rallies; for the inter - month strategy, stay on the sidelines in the short term [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 9.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg, with all regions falling below 10 yuan/kg, and the white strip price also declined. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 280.95 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36.19 yuan/head. The price of sows remained unchanged at 1423.81 yuan/head [4]. - **Capacity**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. The存栏 of reproductive sows in the steel - union sample in February was 5.1873 million, a slight month - on - month decline. The number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate were stable [4]. - **Supply**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in February was 38.8971 million, a month - on - month increase of 678,100. The theoretical supply pressure in the first quarter continued to increase, suppressing the sharp rebound of spot prices. The theoretical slaughter volume in March was at a high level, and from April, it is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: The daily slaughter volume this week was 132,951, a week - on - week increase of 9.5%. The daily slaughter start - up rate was 32.12%, a week - on - week increase of 9.48%. It is currently in the seasonal off - season of consumption, and the downstream's ability to absorb the large supply is limited. Consumption is expected to recover seasonally after April [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening mode dropped to - 263 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening dropped to - 154 yuan/head. The slaughter profit dropped to - 17.8 yuan/head. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost on breeding cost [5]. - **Substitutes**: The prices of beef, mutton, fish, and chicken fluctuated slightly, and the prices of various substitutes were stable [5]. - **Futures Market**: All contracts of live hog futures fell sharply this week, and there was a significant squeeze on the premium in the futures market [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - **Spot Market Prices**: The report shows the historical price trends of national standard pigs, white strips, piglets, and binary sows from 2022 to 2026 [10]. 3.3 Live Hog Market Balance Sheet - Based on piglet data, the supply - demand gap was flat year - on - year from March to May 2025, and widened rapidly from June to December 2025, being higher year - on - year. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will widen in the first and second quarters of 2026, and the center of spot prices is difficult to move up significantly [14][15]. 3.4 Basic Production Capacity Situation - **Reproductive Sow Inventory**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The存栏 data of reproductive sows from three - party institutions increased month - on - month in January 2026 [18]. - **Sow Culling Volume**: The sow culling volume decreased month - on - month in January, which may be related to the sharp rise in spot prices in January [20]. - **Farrowing Efficiency**: The PSY of 16 listed pig enterprises has been increasing year by year. With the continued improvement of breed replacement by medium - sized and small - sized breeding enterprises, the PSY data is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [27][28]. 3.5 Market Supply Situation - **Statistics on Slaughter and Inventory**: The report shows the quarterly slaughter and存栏 of live hogs from 2017 to 2025. The新增 piglet data from the steel - union showed a decline in November 2025 and an increase after December [30][33][36]. - **Inventory Structure and Weight**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in the steel - union sample and the proportion of different weight ranges are presented. The average slaughter weight of live hogs continued to increase slightly this week, and the fat - to - standard price difference continued to decline [43][45][59]. - **Monthly Planned Slaughter of Enterprises**: The report shows the monthly planned slaughter volume of 173 large - scale enterprises from 2022 to 2025, as well as the monthly slaughter volume trends of enterprises such as Muyuan, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Wenshi [46][62]. 3.6 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Volume and Pork Output**: The report shows the changes in the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughterhouses from 2018 to 2025 and the quarterly pork output of the Ministry of Commerce from 2017 to 2025 [71][73]. - **Slaughter - related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume, daily start - up rate, fresh sales rate, and capacity utilization rate of slaughter enterprises are presented, as well as the trends of wholesale market arrival and wholesale volume [76][82]. - **Competition Product Prices**: The price trends of beef, mutton, white - striped chicken, and crucian carp from 2021 to 2026 are shown [89]. 3.7 Breeding Cost and Industry Profit - **Cost and Profit Trends**: The report shows the profit trends of purchasing piglets for fattening, self - breeding and self - fattening, the price trend of fattening feed, and the pig - to - grain ratio from 2021 to 2026 [96]. - **Expected and Current Breeding Costs**: The expected and current breeding costs of large - scale enterprises in self - breeding and self - fattening mode, as well as the current and expected breeding costs of purchasing piglets for fattening, are presented. The secondary fattening costs of different weight increases are also shown [97][103][104]. 3.8 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: The price trends of various live hog futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 are shown [115]. - **Basis and Spread Trends**: The basis trends of various contracts and the spread trends between different contracts are presented [125][135].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5]. Core Insights - Post-holiday pig prices are accelerating downward, indicating imminent capacity reduction. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork in February 2026 were 27.57 CNY/kg, 12.82 CNY/kg, and 23.73 CNY/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of 8.62%, -2.73%, and 1.43% [15][40]. - The supply side shows that the effective slaughter days in February were reduced due to the Spring Festival, leading to concentrated pre-holiday slaughtering and sufficient market supply. Post-holiday, the enthusiasm for slaughtering remains, with large-scale farms gradually resuming their slaughtering rhythm [18]. - Demand has weakened after the Spring Festival, entering a traditional off-season, with a decrease in the slaughtering rate by 8.22 percentage points to 28.02% in February [18][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The agricultural and rural affairs department's monitoring indicates that pig prices are declining after the New Year, with the national average price for live pigs dropping to 10.40 CNY/kg by March 10 [15][40]. - The supply side is characterized by a sufficient market supply due to concentrated pre-holiday slaughtering and ongoing enthusiasm for slaughtering post-holiday [18]. - The demand side is facing challenges as consumption enters a traditional off-season, leading to sluggish sales [18]. Capacity Change Trends - As of December 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, showing a decline compared to October. The industry is expected to enter a phase of deep losses, with cash flow pressures increasing for farming entities [22][28]. - The average loss per head for self-bred pigs is 283.15 CNY, while for purchased piglets, it is 118.18 CNY, indicating a deepening of industry losses [28] - The policy environment is tightening, with ongoing capacity reduction expected as the industry faces significant operational pressures [22][28]. Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices for major companies such as Muyuan, Wens, Zhengbang, and New Hope decreased by 7.80%, 8.86%, 7.07%, and 0%, respectively [31]. - The slaughter volumes for these companies also saw a decline, with Muyuan's volume dropping by 34.33% to 460,000 heads [34][38]. - The average slaughter weight increased slightly, indicating a potential slowdown in sales rhythm [34]. Future Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for pig supply is grim, with prices expected to continue to decline and losses accumulating. The industry is at a critical stage for capacity reduction, with opportunities for left-side layout [28]. - The industry index's price-to-book ratio is showing signs of bottoming out, suggesting potential for further upward movement [28]. - Recommended stocks include leading companies with cost advantages and high performance realization rates, such as Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, Tiankang, and Shennong Group [28].

Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding industry is entering its "darkest hour," with prices rapidly declining and expected to continue to drop, leading to increased cash flow pressure and accelerated capacity reduction [3][13][14] - The average price of live pigs has fallen below 10 yuan/kg, marking a new low since 2022, with significant supply pressure expected to persist [13][14] - The industry has experienced a prolonged period of losses, with average losses per head reaching 237.98 yuan for self-bred pigs and 58.89 yuan for purchased piglets [13][14] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Rising crude oil prices are anticipated to reverse the downward trend in agricultural product prices, with a potential rebound in grain prices supported by biofuel demand and rising agricultural input costs [3][44] - Major agricultural products in China have seen price declines over the past three years, with wheat, corn, and soybeans experiencing maximum drops of 25.8%, 28.4%, and 34.4% respectively [44][45] - Since January 2025, agricultural prices have begun to recover, with increases of approximately 5% to 15% observed by February 2026 [44][45] Group 3: Livestock Industry - The beef market is expected to see a leading reversal, with prices likely to accelerate upward, while raw milk prices are still bottoming out, indicating an approaching turning point [3][5] - The beef supply is anticipated to contract significantly in 2026, following a period of deep capacity reduction [3][5] - The "meat and milk resonance" cycle is expected to commence as the beef market recovers [3][5] Group 4: Pet Food Industry - The domestic pet food market continues to grow steadily, with leading brands increasing their market share [3][5] - The export business is expected to improve gradually, and a performance turning point is anticipated in the financial reports [3][5] - Leading companies are focusing on functional and prescription pet food, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 5: Key Companies to Watch - Key companies in the swine breeding sector include Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, Hualv Biological, and Guibao Pet [3][5]