过去一周，各地证监局披露了多则罚单，包括华西证券、联储证券、国泰海通证券、东方证券、中德证 券、国元证券等多家券商被罚。 投行业务是罚单的重灾区。比如上海证监局一次性释放了10张罚单，主要涉及2020年至2024年之间的投行业务 违规行为，涵盖债券、定增、并购重组等多个既往违规事项。 整体来看，近期被罚的多是前几年的存量项目，并非近期新增业务，处罚对象也呈现"机构+责任人"双重问责 的特点。 上实租赁、联储证券双双领罚 上海证监局公开披露多则罚单，直指上实融资租赁有限公司（简称"上实租赁"）的多项违规行为；而联储证券 作为上实租赁公司债券的受托管理人，也因在受托管理过程中存在履职尽责不到位的情况领罚。 从罚单来看，上实租赁存在五项违规行为： 一是上实租赁非公开发行的公司债券"21上实01"，发行金额为4亿元，上实租赁通过短期借款获得资金并 以相关机构的名义认购其中2.1亿元，而在发行环节间接认购自己发行公司债券，违反了上交所相关规 定。 二是截至本罚单披露日，公司尚未披露公司债券2023年中期报告、2023年年度报告、2024年中期报告、 2024年年度报告及2025年中期报告。 三是公司总经理2022年1月 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 高波与机会 [Table_Summary] ►主线逻辑相互对冲，利率定价陷入纠结 3 月中旬，随着中东地缘冲突持续发酵，全球不确定性加剧了国内权 益资产的波动。然而，市场风险偏好回落并未给债市带来实质利多，原因 在于，原油价格攀升，全球通胀压力激增，国内债市定价相应趋于保守， 10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率持稳于 1.83%、2.30%。 ►通胀、风险偏好、资金面，3 月下旬三大关注点 首先，通胀逻辑依然是重中之重，也是当前利率下行的最大阻力。3 月 16 日以来，迪拜、阿曼地区原油现货价格已攀升至 150 美元/桶之上， 相对布油现货的溢价幅度接近 50 美元/桶，指向局部地区的原油供需已进 入极不平衡的状态。未来一周，原油定价分歧可能会进一步放大。一方 面，伊朗或有意放开霍尔木兹海峡的通行；但另一方面，以色列称要进一 步加大对伊的军事打击力度。整体来看，在油价明确见顶信号出现以前， 债市对于通胀问题的担忧情绪大概率会持续。 其次，股市行情调整，对于当下债市或是双刃剑。3 月以来，主动权 益 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 高油价冲击，三种情景 [Table_Summary] ► 以史为鉴：油价大涨下的各类资产表现 本次霍尔木兹海峡封锁对全球原油供给的冲击规模在历次地 缘事件中居首。危机初期大类资产呈现"强美元、利率上 行、美股回调、黄金下跌"的组合，与 2022 年俄乌冲突初期 方向一致，核心交易逻辑均为"通胀预期升温叠加美联储紧 缩担忧"。然而，尽管本次油价冲击幅度已达俄乌时期的两 倍，但美元和美债收益率的上行幅度相对偏弱，反映出市场 尚未充分定价高油价持续时间超预期所带来的冲击。 ►高油价影响：加息预期可能重创美债、美股 霍尔木兹海峡接近停运，至少影响全球原油缺口约 12%。能 源短缺状态在冲突结束前，暂时难以逆转。 悲观情景，若冲突在 5月末仍未结束，油价可能升至150-160 美元区间。如油价再涨 30%，美联储加息预期定价可能达到 75bp。对应 2 年期美债收益率上行至接近 4.5%以上，也会重 创美股的高估值板块。美元指数可能升至 104 附近，且对黄 金的压制效应可能仍然存在，但影响幅度上有可能边 ...

文/梧桐小编 3月20日，四川证监局公布《关于对华西证券股份有限公司采取责令改正行政监管措施的决定》、《关于对赵喆杰﹑陈瑜芳采取责令改正行政监管措施的决定》。 经查，华西证券在承销和受托管理个别债券项目工作中存在对抵押物信息等重大事项尽职调查不到位、募集资金使用情况核查不充分、相关工作制度不健全等问 题。赵喆杰﹑陈瑜芳作为项目负责人，对华西证券在承销和受托管理个别债券项目工作中存在对抵押物信息等重大事项尽职调查不到位、募集资金使用情况核查 不充分等问题负有责任。四川证监局决定分别对华西证券，赵喆杰﹑陈瑜芳采取责令改正的行政监督管理措施。 ...

Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the Wind All A Index saw a significant increase, breaking through the high point of January 26, indicating a reduction in post-holiday cautious sentiment. The financing balance returned to approximately 2.65 trillion yuan, with a net financing inflow of 77.6 billion yuan over the first three trading days after the holiday. Resource products and computing hardware sectors benefited from price increase logic, with steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemical indices rising over 7%. Since February, precious metals and crude oil prices have generally risen due to geopolitical risks and differing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. The US dollar index fluctuated around 97, while the offshore RMB continued its appreciation trend, recently surpassing the 6.9 mark [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - As the "Two Sessions" approach, the A-share market is characterized by stability. The escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts may trigger short-term global risk aversion and inflation trading, with the duration of these conflicts being a key variable affecting the market. Domestically, the upcoming "Two Sessions" will focus on expanding domestic demand and new productive forces, which may become annual priorities. Historical data shows that the market tends to operate steadily during the "Two Sessions," with an increased probability of market gains following the conclusion of the sessions. Key areas of focus include the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may drive short-term global risk aversion and inflation expectations, benefiting sectors like crude oil and non-ferrous metals [2][3]. Focus on "14th Five-Year Plan" Direction - The A-share market will enter the "Two Sessions" period, emphasizing the direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan." Historical analysis from 2019 to 2025 indicates that the market's performance tends to decline during the "Two Sessions," likely due to some funds cashing out during the meetings. However, the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A Index tends to improve in the seven trading days following the sessions. Sectors highlighted during the sessions often continue to perform well throughout the year, such as the power sector after the mention of "carbon neutrality" in 2021 and the AI sector after the introduction of "AI+" in 2024. This year marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the review of its draft will likely anchor mid-to-long-term industry directions [3][4]. Economic Focus for 2026 - The key tasks for economic work in 2026 include expanding domestic demand and fostering new productive forces. The economic growth target for 31 provinces is set around 5%, reflecting a pragmatic approach of "seeking progress while maintaining stability." The Central Political Bureau emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a supportive and expansionary stance for 2026. The focus on expanding domestic demand and new productive forces is underscored by President Xi Jinping's article outlining eight key tasks, with the first two emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and innovation-driven growth [4][5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - From a valuation perspective, the latest Wind All A price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, excluding negative values, stands at 18.58 times, which is at the 80th percentile of historical highs since 2010. However, approximately 40% of industries still have valuations below the median since 2010. The latest equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 is 5.26%, close to the median over the past decade, indicating that A-shares are relatively reasonably valued. In the medium to long term, the current "slow bull" market still has room for further development. Industry allocation should focus on sectors benefiting from inflation expectations, such as oil transportation, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, as well as new productive forces supported by industrial policies, including military, computing, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [5].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 中东突变，大类资产如何演绎 [Table_Summary] 2026年 2月 28日，美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发 制人"的军事打击，随后伊朗宣布将对以色列发动"毁灭性 打击"，同时也对美国在中东部署的军事基地予以还击，28 日 阿联酋、巴林、科威特、沙特等海湾多国均发生爆炸，中东 区域地缘冲突全面加剧并扩散。 ►以史为鉴，"涨在预期，卖在现实" 面对突如其来的纷争升级，各类资产将如何演绎，"战争 时长"或是决定行情发酵程度的关键变量。回顾历史，美方 在中东区域主导的战争往往以两种形式收场，其一为闪电 战，如 2025 年 6 月的伊以冲突；一旦闪电战无法取得决定性 突破，战争便会演变成第二类结果，拉锯战，典型案例为 2003 年 3 月的伊拉克战争。 战争冲突对资产价格的影响，基本呈现"涨在预期，卖 在现实"的特征。如果冲突爆发突然，之前的市场预期并不 充分，可能在开战首个交易日，资产价格大幅脉冲，而随后 涨跌势均收窄，甚至逆转。战争开启之后，各类资产价格的 走向，与市场对战争持续时长的预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is accelerating the disposal of idle assets, with multiple listed brokerages selling non-core properties to focus resources on core business operations [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Since 2026, the pace of asset disposal in the securities industry has increased, with brokerages like Hongta Securities listing properties in cities such as Kunming, Shanghai, and Shenzhen for a total price of 263 million yuan [1][3]. - The trend of focusing on core responsibilities and improving capital efficiency has become a crucial strategy for the transformation and development of the securities industry [1][3]. - The disposal of idle properties is evolving from individual cases to a common practice across the industry, with firms like Founder Securities, Huaxi Securities, and Guolian Minsheng also engaging in similar asset disposals [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Hongta Securities stated that the asset disposal will help activate idle assets and enhance operational efficiency without significantly impacting the company's operations [1][3]. - If Hongta Securities successfully disposes of the listed properties at the assessed value, it could generate revenue of approximately 26.28 million yuan and a total profit of about 18.68 million yuan [1][3]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - The concentration on selling idle assets and promoting light asset operations reflects a significant shift in the industry from a "scale-driven" model to an "efficiency-driven" model [2][5]. - This strategic shift is seen as a practical response to the low interest rate environment and valuation challenges, while also aiming to build modern investment banking capabilities aligned with international standards [2][5]. - However, it is emphasized that light assetization should not be the ultimate goal; the focus must remain on creating differentiated value for clients to ensure sustainable development [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan Buyi, forecasting revenue and net profit growth for FY26-28, with projected revenues of 60.04 billion, 63.96 billion, and 68.06 billion yuan, and net profits of 9.71 billion, 10.40 billion, and 11.15 billion yuan respectively [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026H1, the company reported revenues, net profits, and operating cash flow of 3.376 billion, 676 million, and 996 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 7.0%, 11.9%, and 21.1% respectively [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.52 HKD per share, yielding a dividend rate of 5.18% [1] Brand Performance - Revenue growth varied by brand in FY2026H1, with JNBY, Su Xie, jnby by JNBY, LESS, and emerging brands generating revenues of 1.860 billion, 389 million, 495 million, 394 million, and 237 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.7%, 0.4%, 4.1%, 16.3%, and 22.4% [2] - Store count for these brands was 992, 297, 527, 271, and 54 respectively, with growth rates of 3.3%, -6%, 1.9%, 4.6%, and 3.8% [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from direct sales, distribution, and online channels in FY2026H1 was 1.180 billion, 1.442 billion, and 753 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 5.7%, 0.3%, and 25.1% respectively [3] - The number of direct and distribution stores was 512 and 1651, with growth rates of 4% and 1% [3] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin and net profit margin increased by 1.4 and 0.9 percentage points, with FY2026H1 gross margin at 66.5% [4] - The gross margins for JNBY, Su Xie, jnby by JNBY, LESS, and emerging brands were 69.4%, 67.5%, 60.2%, 70.5%, and 48.8% respectively [4] Inventory and Receivables - As of FY2026H1, inventory was 1.02 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, with accounts receivable at 220 million yuan, remaining stable [5] - Accounts payable increased by 29.2% to 308 million yuan, with accounts payable turnover days decreasing by 12 days to 44 days [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with significant potential for store openings in its growth and emerging brands [6] - Long-term expectations include improved gross margins and net profit margins driven by brand loyalty and economies of scale [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan Buyi (03306), forecasting revenue for FY26-28 at 6.004/6.396/6.806 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8.21%/6.53%/6.41% [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026H1, the company reported revenue/net profit/cash flow from operating activities of 3.376/0.676/0.996 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7.0%/11.9%/21.1% [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.52 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.18% [1] Brand Performance - In FY2026H1, revenue by brand was as follows: JNBY 1.860 billion, Su Xie 0.389 billion, jnby by JNBY 0.495 billion, LESS 0.394 billion, and emerging brands 0.237 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.7%/0.4%/4.1%/16.3%/22.4% respectively [2] - Store count for each brand was 992/297/527/271/54, with year-on-year changes of 3.3%/-6%/1.9%/4.6%/3.8% [2] Channel Performance - For FY2026H1, revenue by channel was 1.180 billion from direct sales, 1.442 billion from distribution, and 0.753 billion from online, with year-on-year growth of 5.7%/0.3%/25.1% [3] - The number of direct and distribution stores was 512 and 1651, with year-on-year growth of 4% and 1% respectively [3] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin and net profit margin increased by 1.4 and 0.9 percentage points, with FY2026H1 gross margin at 66.5% [4] - The net profit margin for FY2026H1 was 20.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [4] Inventory and Receivables - As of FY2026H1, inventory was 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [5] - Accounts receivable stood at 0.220 billion yuan, remaining stable, with a turnover period of 9 days, down by 1 day [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with significant potential for store openings in its growth and emerging brands [6] - Long-term, the company expects improved gross margins and net profit margins driven by brand loyalty and economies of scale [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Spring Festival serves as a peak season for dining consumption, with a clear recovery trend in restaurant consumption, laying a solid foundation for the upstream supply chain's recovery [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that during the Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with foot traffic in 78 key pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% and sales increasing by 7.5%, indicating a strong recovery momentum in dining consumption [1][2] Group 2 - There is an explosive growth in demand for festive gatherings, with Meituan's New Year's Eve dinner reservations increasing by 105% year-on-year and Douyin's group purchase sales for New Year's Eve dinners rising by 185%, showcasing the vitality of consumer spending [2] - Jiangsu Province's dining revenue during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday reached 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, reflecting a comprehensive recovery trend in dining consumption nationwide [2] Group 3 - The strong performance of downstream dining consumption is expected to transmit to the upstream supply chain, improving inventory and sales dynamics, with leading companies benefiting from scale, channels, and product advantages during the peak season [3] - Frozen foods and condiments are core categories in the dining supply chain that will benefit from the seasonal demand surge, with the recovery in dining scenes directly driving B-end product sales growth [3] Group 4 - The recovery logic is reinforced, with the service consumption sector, particularly dining and travel, expected to boost consumer confidence and enhance subsequent consumption willingness [4] - Continuous recovery in dining sales, coupled with an increase in store numbers and price adjustments to cater to mass consumption and market expansion, will drive sustained demand for dining-related products [4] Group 5 - Investment recommendations focus on core targets that combine alpha and beta resonance, highlighting companies such as Anjijia Food, Yihai International, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the dining recovery [5]