电新行业 2025Q4 基金持仓分析 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 邓永康 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120002 | | 邮箱： dengyongkang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 李孝鹏 | | 执业证书： S0590525110040 | | 邮箱： lixiaopeng@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 王一如 | | 执业证书： S0590525110041 | | 邮箱： wangyiru_yj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 李佳 | | 执业证书： S0590525110042 | | 邮箱： lijia_yj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 朱碧野 | | 执业证书： S0590525110045 | | 邮箱： zhubiye@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 林誉韬 | | 执业证书： S0590525110044 | | 邮箱： linyutao@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 席子屹 | | 执业证书： S0590525110043 | | 邮箱： xiziyi@gl ...

27 Jan 2026 12:40:16 ET │ 26 pages Ac t i o n | China Battery Materials Bumpy Road to Price Recovery CITI'S TAKE Since our call on battery price upcycle on back of ESS demand boom (note Sep-25), LFP battery cell price has risen by 8% while battery cost (LFP, spot based) went up by 30%, resulting in lower calculated battery margin. Battery companies are supposed to pass through most of metal-linked cost to downstream and share some of the non-metal cost inflations. This, alongside with concerns from EV sales ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the power battery industry in China experienced rapid growth, with sales surpassing 1 TWh for the first time, reflecting significant structural changes in exports, material composition, vehicle demand, and market competition [1] Group 1: Sales and Growth - In 2025, the total sales of power batteries reached 1200.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.8%, significantly higher than the 28.4% growth in 2024 [1] - Cumulative installed capacity was 769.7 GWh, up 40.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 221.3 GWh compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Cumulative exports of power batteries in 2025 reached 189.7 GWh, a year-on-year growth of 41.9%, a substantial increase from the 5.0% growth in 2024 [3] - In December 2025, exports of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 51.3% of total monthly exports, marking a 71.1% year-on-year increase and surpassing the previously dominant ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Battery Type Performance - In 2025, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 625.3 GWh, representing 81.2% of total installed capacity, with a year-on-year growth of 52.9% [5] - The installed capacity of ternary batteries dropped to 18.7%, with a year-on-year growth of only 3.7%, continuing a downward trend from 10.2% in 2024 [5] Group 4: Commercial Vehicle Growth - The growth of commercial vehicles was explosive, with the installed capacity of pure electric trucks increasing to 17.7%, a year-on-year growth of 168.9% [7] - The average battery capacity of new energy vehicles rose to 55.2 kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [7] Group 5: Market Structure and Competition - The market competition is evolving from a "dual dominance" to a "stable head and diverse rise," with CATL and BYD maintaining their leading positions but seeing their combined market share decrease from 69.8% to 64.9% [10] - Mid-tier companies like Zhongchuang Innovation and Guoxuan High-Tech are gaining market share, with Guoxuan's installed capacity reaching 43.44 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.07 percentage points [12] Group 6: Material Demand and Pricing - The demand for core materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials surged by over 50% in 2025 [14] - By the end of 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 150,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a more than 60% increase compared to the end of 2024 [14] Group 7: December Performance Highlights - In December 2025, power battery sales reached 143.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%, while installed capacity was 98.1 GWh, up 35.1% year-on-year [16] - The growth was driven by policy incentives and strong end-user demand, with major automakers launching promotional campaigns to stimulate purchases [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the latest developments in energy storage projects from leading companies such as CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, Haibo Sichuang, Trina Storage, and Jinko Solar, with a total scale exceeding 2.4 GWh [2] Group 1: CATL - CATL's Sivrihisar project in Turkey, with a capacity of 49.2 MWp solar and 34.1 MWh storage, is the first hybrid asset approved under the DGES framework in Turkey [4][6] - The project utilizes CATL's EnerC series liquid-cooled battery system, enhancing safety and cycle life while maintaining stable charging and discharging efficiency in Turkey's arid climate [6] Group 2: BYD - BYD has successfully implemented a 100 MW/200 MWh energy storage station in Hezhou, marking the city's first centralized shared energy storage facility [7] - Additionally, BYD partnered with ContourGlobal to establish a 500 MWh standalone battery energy storage system in Bulgaria, which is one of the largest independent storage projects in Eastern Europe [9] - BYD has delivered over 500 energy storage projects globally, covering more than 110 countries and regions [9] Group 3: EVE Energy - EVE Energy has launched a 628 Ah energy storage battery technology at the Guangzhou Baiyun comprehensive energy storage demonstration project [10] - The 628 Ah battery, named "Mr. Big," features a capacity of 2 kWh and a cycle life exceeding 12,000 times, with a strategic collaboration with the National New Energy Storage Innovation Center [12] Group 4: Haibo Sichuang - Haibo Sichuang's 343 MWh emergency power storage project for coal mines utilizes advanced liquid-cooled storage systems designed for harsh environments [13][14] - The project aims to ensure stable operation under extreme conditions and provide emergency power to critical loads in coal mines [14] Group 5: Trina Storage - Trina Storage has successfully delivered a 1.7 GWh energy storage project in the Asia-Pacific region, which is the company's largest overseas project to date [17] - The project employs Trina's Elementa 2 storage system, featuring AI bionic liquid cooling technology for stable operation across a wide temperature range [17] Group 6: Jinko Solar - Jinko Solar has completed a 10 MWh energy storage project in Handan, Hebei, utilizing two Blue Whale SunTera G2 liquid-cooled storage systems [19][21] - The project aims to reduce operational costs through peak-valley electricity price arbitrage and improve the reliability of power supply for local merchants [21] - Despite reporting significant losses, Jinko Solar emphasizes rapid growth in its energy storage business and the effectiveness of its solar-storage synergy [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry sectors mentioned [2]. Core Insights - The overall industry strategy focuses on the simultaneous rise in energy storage volume and price, with ongoing themes in space and AI [3]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering an upward cycle, benefiting companies like CATL and EVE Energy due to the electrification upgrade and optimization of energy storage patterns [3]. - By the end of December 2025, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure is expected to reach 20.092 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [3]. - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%, with CATL maintaining a leading position [3][25]. - The solid-state battery sector is entering a critical phase of engineering and industrialization, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Peking University Technology benefiting [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage and New Energy - The energy storage trend continues to improve, with companies like Sungrow Power and Huaneng Power benefiting from a significant increase in domestic procurement, which exceeded 100 GWh for the first time [5]. - The average price of lithium battery storage systems has rebounded by 6.39% to 0.5226 yuan/Wh [5]. - AI expansion and global grid upgrades are driving demand for power equipment, benefiting companies like TBEA and Sanyuan Electric [5]. Lithium Carbonate and Battery Materials - The supply and demand for lithium carbonate are exceeding expectations, with companies like Salt Lake Potash and Hunan Youneng benefiting from favorable market conditions [4]. - The cost of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials has increased, with processing fees rising by 318.7 yuan/ton compared to November averages [4][27]. AI and Robotics in New Energy - The integration of AI and humanoid robots in the new energy sector is gaining traction, with companies like Zhejiang Rongtai and Keda Li benefiting from advancements in robotics [7]. - Tesla's shift towards becoming a robotics company is expected to create new growth cycles, with significant implications for the automotive industry [7][26]. Market Trends and Projections - The report highlights that the global energy storage battery shipment is expected to reach 1,090 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70% [25]. - The market for commercial energy storage products is evolving, with larger capacity batteries becoming mainstream and driving innovation in the sector [29].

2025年 中国企业主导全球钠电产业发展，国内头部企业加速钠电布局，如宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能、海辰储能、华为、小米、中 石化等；海外欧美韩企业也在积极参与布局，欧洲企业对于钠电池应用推进比较积极。如 LG新能源、大众powerco、Acculon Energy、 Nacelle、Faradion等海外企业。 中国钠电池企业产品涵盖大方形、常规方形、多规格圆柱（从 18650到超大圆柱120420）、软包四大类，能满足储能、动力等不同场景 的应用需求，体现钠电池产品形态的多元化发展趋势。 | | 1. 2020 Personal Production 1 30 Comments of | | --- | --- | | 产品型号 | 生产企业 | | 大方形 72-173-207 | 维科技术、宁德时代、海四达、钠美科技、为方能源、 | | | 海辰储能、华钠芯能、中科海钠、昆宇新能源等 | | 方形 50160118 | 易事特钠电、维科技术、华钠芯能、普钠时代、中科海钠、双登 集团、营宇申渡等 | | 员柱 18650 | 隐功科技、立方新能源、猛狮科技、钟壹新能源、丰日电源、 | | | 传艺钠电、比 ...

电池50ETF（159796）标的指数成分股多数回调，三花智控跌超3%，国轩高科、先导智能等跌超2%，宁德时代、亿纬锂能等回调。 【电池50ETF（159796）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 甲万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300274 | 阳光电源 | 电力设备 | -2.07% | 8.16% | | 2 | 002050 | 三花智控 | 家用电器 | -3.89% | 8.11% | | 3 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 电力设备 | -1.43% | 6.95% | | ব | 300014 | 亿纬锂能 | 电力设备 | -1.45% | 5.35% | | 5 | 002709 | 天赐材料 | 电力设备 | -1.90% | 4.43% | | 6 | 300450 | 先导智能 | 电力设备 | -2.00% | 4.43% | | 7 | 002340 | 格林美 | 电力设备 | 1.55% | 3.29% | | 8 | 002074 | 国轩高科 | ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤固态电池 ICC 鑫椤资讯年终盘点： 2025年碳酸锂市场盘点： 2025年，被业内广泛称为"固态电池产业化元年"。这一年，固态电池不再只是实验室里的技术幻想，也 不再仅是车企发布会上的PPT亮点，而真正迈出了从样件到产品、从示范到量产的关键一步。站在2026年 初回望，这场静水流深的能源革命，正以惊人的速度重塑动力电池乃至整个储能行业的格局。 | 企业 | 能量密度 | 布局及产业化进程 | | --- | --- | --- | | 宁德时代 | 500Wh/kg | 2027年有望实现小批量生产全固态电池 | | | | 2027年将小批量生产固态电池,率先搭载于比亚迪高端车型, 示范项目规模约为1000辆;2030年,在成本下降后,预计将有4 万辆车辆搭载全固态电池;2033年,预计将有12万辆车搭载全 | | | | 固态电池 | | | | 计划于2026年实现工艺突破,推出高功率高环境耐受性的全固 | | 亿纬锂能 | 400Wh/kg | 态电池,并于2028年进一步推出具有400Wh/k ...

电芯价格率先上涨，重视锂电材料盈利非线性增长的可能性 面对迅速增长的锂电需求，锂电行业迎来供需格局的改善，2025年以来，宁德时代等电池企业纷纷开启 扩产。由于此前阶段性产能过剩，锂电材料环节经历了较长的盈利下行周期，报表恶化，资产负债率高 企。相较于电池行业，锂电材料在新产能释放过程中或面临着较大的资金周转与债务偿还压力，供给相 对刚性。 2025年6月开始，国内储能电芯出现供需偏紧率先开启涨价周期，9月以来六氟磷酸锂和碳酸锂等材料环 节价格迎来上涨。国泰海通认为，涨价背后的底层逻辑是供需，谁主导供需谁占优。下游电芯需求饱 满，价格向终端客户传导；材料环节需求饱满，盈利能力提升。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，据鑫椤数据统计数据显示，2025年全球储能电池出货 640GWh，同比增长82.9%。其中国内电池厂家出货621.5GWh，同比增长82.8%；海外电池厂家出货 18.5GWh，同比增长85%。25年6月开始，国内储能电芯出现供需偏紧率先开启涨价周期，9月以来六氟 磷酸锂和碳酸锂等材料环节价格迎来上涨。本轮反内卷大势所趋，锂电材料近年来业绩疲软资产负债率 高企，相较于持续增长的需求材料行业的 ...

反内卷大势所趋，锂电材料近年来业绩疲软资产负债率高企，相较于持续增长的需 求材料行业的供给相对刚性，看好锂电材料头部公司盈利非线性增长的可能性。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 告别过剩思想，拥抱锂电材料大周期 [Table_Industry] 动力锂电 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 牟俊宇(分析师) | 0755-23976610 | moujunyu@gtht.com | S0880521080003 | 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 动力锂电《钠电团体标准正式发布，产业化加速 推进》2026.01.11 动力锂电《11 月新能源汽车表现强劲，动力电池 产销同环比保持增长》2025.12.14 动力锂电《碳酸锂迎来上涨，钠电产业加速落 地》2025.11.20 ...