I have been covering BP (NYSE: BP ) for nearly five years on Seeking Alpha. In that time frame, the company has returned almost exactly zero, including dividends. That lags far behind the other integrated internationalI retired early after 22 years in the energy industry with roles in engineering, planning, and financial analysis. I have managed my own portfolio since 1998 and have met my goal to match the S+P 500 return over the long term with lower volatility and higher income. I mostly write on positions ...

Analysts cut the price target on BP p.l.c. BP following the company’s third quarter results reported on Tuesday.BP’s revenue fell short at $47.25 billion, below the $52.56 billion consensus, with oil production down 6% year over year.For FY24, BP continues to expect both reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher than the prior year. Meanwhile, the company continues to expect $25 billion of divestments and other proceeds from the second half of 2020 through 2025.RBC Capital Markets an ...

Start Time: 09:00 January 1, 0000 10:09 AM ET BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 29, 2024, 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Murray Auchincloss - CEO Kate Thomson - CFO Craig Marshall - SVP and Head, IR Conference Call Participants Josh Stone - UBS Giacomo Romeo - Jefferies Irene Himona - Bernstein Biraj Borkhataria - RBC Doug Leggate - Wolfe Lydia Rainforth - Barclays Peter Low - Redburn Roger Read - Wells Fargo Chris Kuplent - Bank of America Ryan Todd - Piper Alastair Syme - Citi ...

Financial Performance - BP reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of 83 cents per American Depositary Share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents, but down from $1.15 a year ago [1] - Total quarterly revenues were $48.3 billion, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $62.5 billion and down from $54 billion reported a year ago [1] Operational Performance - BP's total production for the third quarter was 1,488 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), an increase from 1,382 Mboe/d in the year-ago quarter and above the estimate of 1,369.1 Mboe/d [4] - The company sold liquids at $70.22 per barrel, down from $71.10 a year ago, and below the estimate of $71.69 [4] - Natural gas was sold at $2.25 per thousand cubic feet, down from $3.44 a year ago and missing the estimate of $2.53 [5] - Overall hydrocarbon price realization decreased to $53.65 per Boe from $56.76 year over year, also lagging the estimate of $60.47 [5] Segment Performance - Underlying replacement cost earnings before interest and tax for the oil segment were $2.8 billion, down from $3.1 billion a year ago but above the estimate of $2.7 billion [6] - Gas & Low Carbon Energy segment profits totaled $1.8 billion, up from $1.3 billion year-over-year, exceeding the projection of $1.1 billion [7] - Customers & Products segment earnings before interest and tax were $381 million, significantly down from $2.1 billion a year ago and below the projection of $1.8 billion [8] Capital Expenditure and Financials - Organic capital expenditure for the quarter was $4.3 billion, with total capital spending at $4.5 billion [11] - BP's net debt stood at $24.3 billion at the end of the third quarter, with a gearing of 23.3% [12] Outlook - BP expects upstream production for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be lower than the third quarter, but anticipates both reported and underlying upstream production for 2024 to exceed the previous year's figures [13] - The company has allocated a capital expenditure budget of $16 billion for 2024, with plans for even distribution between the first and second halves of the year [14] - BP aims to generate over $3 billion from divestments and other financial transactions in 2024, as part of a broader goal to achieve $25 billion in divestments from the second half of 2020 through 2025 [14]

KEY TAKEAWAYSBP on Tuesday posted third-quarter profit that fell well short of analysts' forecasts, dragged by weaker refining margins and oil trading.It reported net profit of $206 million, a massive decline from last year's $4.86 billion and well below the $1.96 billion consensus estimate of analysts polled by Visible Alpha.BP booked an underlying replacement-cost (RC) profit of $2.27 billion, down from the $3.29 billion it reported a year ago and $2.76 billion last quarter, although it topped analysts' e ...

[Highlights](index=2&type=section&id=Highlights) [Executive Summary](index=2&type=section&id=Executive%20Summary) BP's Q3 underlying profit decreased to $2.3 billion due to weaker refining margins and oil trading results - The company is focused on its six priorities to become simpler, more focused, and higher value, with a belief in growth opportunities in both oil and gas and the energy transition[4](index=4&type=chunk) - BP is implementing measures to achieve at least **$2 billion** in sustainable cash cost savings by the end of 2026, relative to 2023 levels[11](index=11&type=chunk)[33](index=33&type=chunk) Q3 2024 Key Financial Metrics | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Underlying RC Profit* | $2,267 million | $2,756 million | $3,293 million | | Reported Profit for the period | $206 million | ($129) million | $4,858 million | | Operating Cash Flow* | $6,761 million | $8,100 million | $8,747 million | | Net Debt* | $24,268 million | $22,614 million | $22,324 million | [Operational and Strategic Developments](index=2&type=section&id=Operational%20and%20Strategic%20Developments) BP maintained resilient Q3 operations with 2.4 mmboe/d upstream production and advanced strategic growth through key acquisitions and MOUs - Upstream production was **2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d)** and refining availability was **95.6%** for the third quarter[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Strategic growth initiatives include signing MOUs with SOCAR for exploration offshore Azerbaijan and completing the bp Bunge Bioenergia and Lightsource bp transactions in Q4[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Shareholder Distributions](index=2&type=section&id=Shareholder%20Distributions) BP announced an 8-cent Q3 dividend and a $1.75 billion share buyback, maintaining its $14 billion buyback guidance through 2025 - A dividend of **8 cents** per ordinary share was announced for Q3 2024[11](index=11&type=chunk)[17](index=17&type=chunk) - A **$1.75 billion** share buyback was announced for Q3 2024, part of a **$3.5 billion** commitment for the second half of the year[11](index=11&type=chunk)[33](index=33&type=chunk) - The guidance for at least **$14 billion** in share buybacks through 2025 is currently unchanged, but will be reviewed with the full-year results in February 2025[37](index=37&type=chunk) [Financial Results](index=4&type=section&id=Financial%20Results) [Group Financial Performance](index=4&type=section&id=Group%20Financial%20Performance) BP's Q3 2024 underlying profit declined to $2.3 billion due to lower refining margins and weak oil trading, with net debt increasing to $24.3 billion Underlying RC Profit Comparison | Period | 2024 | 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Q3 Underlying RC Profit | $2.3 billion | $3.3 billion | | Nine Months Underlying RC Profit | $7.7 billion | $10.8 billion | - The decline in Q3 underlying profit compared to the prior year was driven by lower refining margins and a weak oil trading contribution, while the gas marketing and trading result was average[20](index=20&type=chunk) - Operating cash flow was **$6.8 billion** for Q3 2024, down from **$8.7 billion** in Q3 2023. Net debt rose to **$24.3 billion** at the end of the quarter[40](index=40&type=chunk) - Capital expenditure for Q3 2024 was **$4.5 billion**, up from **$3.6 billion** in Q3 2023. Total divestment and other proceeds were **$0.3 billion** for the quarter[40](index=40&type=chunk) [Outlook & Guidance](index=6&type=section&id=Outlook%20%26%20Guidance) [4Q 2024 Guidance](index=6&type=section&id=4Q%202024%20Guidance) BP anticipates lower Q4 2024 upstream production and seasonally lower customer volumes, with refining margins expected to remain low - Reported upstream production is expected to be lower in Q4 2024 compared to Q3 2024[24](index=24&type=chunk) - The customers business expects seasonally lower volumes, with fuels margins remaining sensitive to supply costs[47](index=47&type=chunk) - The products business expects realized refining margins to remain low in the fourth quarter[47](index=47&type=chunk) [Full Year 2024 Guidance](index=7&type=section&id=Full%20Year%202024%20Guidance) BP maintains its 2024 guidance for slightly higher upstream production, $16 billion in capex, and over $3 billion in divestment proceeds - Full-year 2024 upstream production is expected to be slightly higher than in 2023[25](index=25&type=chunk) - Capital expenditure for 2024 is expected to be around **$16 billion**[25](index=25&type=chunk) - Divestment and other proceeds are now expected to be greater than **$3 billion** in 2024, with the company on track to reach its **$25 billion** target by 2025[25](index=25&type=chunk) - The underlying effective tax rate (ETR) for 2024 is expected to be around **40%**[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Segment Analysis](index=7&type=section&id=Segment%20Analysis) Q3 2024 segment performance was mixed, with Gas & Low Carbon Energy profit up, Oil Production & Operations down, and Customers & Products significantly lower [Gas & Low Carbon Energy](index=7&type=section&id=gas%20%26%20low%20carbon%20energy) Gas & Low Carbon Energy reported $1.8 billion underlying profit in Q3 2024, driven by higher gas realizations, alongside strategic acquisitions and project advancements Gas & Low Carbon Energy Financials ($ million) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Underlying RC profit before interest and tax | 1,756 | 1,402 | 1,256 | - The increase in underlying profit from the previous quarter was largely driven by higher gas realizations, with an average gas marketing and trading result[14](index=14&type=chunk) - Reported production for the quarter was **890 mboe/d**, **6.0%** lower than the same period in 2023[26](index=26&type=chunk) - Strategic progress includes completing the acquisition of GETEC ENERGIE GmbH to grow its European gas and power presence and acquiring the remaining 50.03% of Lightsource bp[26](index=26&type=chunk) [Oil Production & Operations](index=10&type=section&id=oil%20production%20%26%20operations) Oil Production & Operations reported $2.8 billion underlying profit in Q3 2024, down due to lower liquids realizations, despite increased production and strategic agreements Oil Production & Operations Financials ($ million) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Underlying RC profit before interest and tax | 2,794 | 3,094 | 3,136 | - The decrease in underlying profit from Q2 2024 was due to lower liquids realizations and increased exploration write-offs[35](index=35&type=chunk) - Reported production for the quarter was **1,488 mboe/d**, a **7.7%** increase compared to Q3 2023, reflecting strong performance from bpx energy and major projects[54](index=54&type=chunk) - Strategic progress includes signing an MOU with SOCAR for exploration in the Caspian Sea and another with the government of Iraq for redevelopment in the Kirkuk region[71](index=71&type=chunk) [Customers & Products](index=12&type=section&id=customers%20%26%20products) Customers & Products reported a significantly lower Q3 2024 underlying profit of $0.4 billion, primarily due to weaker refining margins and oil trading Customers & Products Financials ($ million) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Underlying RC profit before interest and tax | 381 | 1,149 | 2,055 | - The underlying result was significantly lower than the prior year, primarily due to lower refining margins and a weak oil trading contribution, which offset a higher result from the customers business[58](index=58&type=chunk) - The customers business result was higher than Q3 2023, benefiting from improved retail fuels margins and a stronger Castrol performance[58](index=58&type=chunk) - Strategic progress includes taking full ownership of bp Bunge Bioenergia, expanding the EV charging network, and launching a new loyalty program, 'earnify', in the US[74](index=74&type=chunk) [Other Businesses & Corporate](index=15&type=section&id=other%20businesses%20%26%20corporate) Other Businesses & Corporate reported a Q3 2024 underlying profit of $231 million, a significant improvement driven by favorable fair value effects Other Businesses & Corporate Financials ($ million) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Underlying RC profit (loss) before interest and tax | 231 | (158) | (303) | - The segment's result includes activities in technology, bp ventures, corporate functions, and residual costs from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill[92](index=92&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=16&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) [Group Income Statement](index=16&type=section&id=Group%20Income%20Statement) BP reported Q3 2024 total revenues of $48.3 billion, with profit attributable to shareholders at $206 million, resulting in 1.26 cents EPS Q3 2024 Income Statement Highlights ($ million) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Sales and other operating revenues | 47,254 | 53,269 | | Profit before taxation | 1,398 | 7,309 | | Profit for the period | 370 | 5,069 | | Profit attributable to bp shareholders | 206 | 4,858 | [Group Balance Sheet](index=20&type=section&id=Group%20Balance%20Sheet) As of September 30, 2024, BP's total assets were $269.7 billion and total equity was $79.9 billion Balance Sheet Summary ($ million) | Metric | 30 Sep 2024 | 31 Dec 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Assets | 269,708 | 280,294 | | Total Liabilities | 189,762 | 194,801 | | Total Equity | 79,946 | 85,493 | [Group Cash Flow Statement](index=21&type=section&id=Group%20Cash%20Flow%20Statement) Q3 2024 operating cash flow was $6.8 billion, with net cash used in investing and financing activities leading to a cash decrease Q3 2024 Cash Flow Summary ($ million) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | 6,761 | 8,747 | | Net cash used in investing activities | (4,233) | (3,453) | | Net cash used in financing activities | (3,003) | (4,178) | | Increase (decrease) in cash | (296) | 1,012 | [Notes to the Financial Statements](index=23&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20the%20Financial%20Statements) [Note 3. Impairment](index=24&type=section&id=Note%203.%20Impairment) BP recorded $1.73 billion in Q3 2024 net impairment charges, primarily in Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products - Total net impairment charges for Q3 2024 were **$1,730 million**[157](index=157&type=chunk) Q3 2024 Impairment Charges by Segment ($ million) | Segment | Impairment Charge | | :--- | :--- | | Gas & Low Carbon Energy | 734 | | Oil Production & Operations | 767 | | Customers & Products | 223 | [Note 9. Net Debt](index=29&type=section&id=Note%209.%20Net%20Debt) BP's net debt increased to $24.3 billion as of September 30, 2024, with a gearing ratio of 23.3% Net Debt and Gearing | Metric | 30 Sep 2024 | 30 Jun 2024 | 30 Sep 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Debt ($ million) | 24,268 | 22,614 | 22,324 | | Gearing | 23.3% | 21.6% | 20.3% | [Note 10. Events after the reporting period](index=29&type=section&id=Note%2010.%20Events%20after%20the%20reporting%20period) After Q3, BP completed full acquisitions of bp Bunge Bioenergia on October 1, 2024, and Lightsource bp on October 24, 2024 - On **October 1, 2024**, BP acquired the remaining **50%** of bp Bunge Bioenergia, taking **100%** ownership[198](index=198&type=chunk) - On **October 24, 2024**, BP acquired the remaining **50.03%** of Lightsource bp, taking **100%** ownership[173](index=173&type=chunk)

(Photo: Michael Paulsen)Houston Chronicle via Getty ImagThe pullback by energy giant BP from renewables and a renewed focus on high margin mainstay oil and gas plays has been relentless this year under its current CEO Murray Auchincloss who was appointed in January.In one of his first major moves as CEO, Auchincloss revised the company's plans to cut oil and gas production by 25% between 2019 and 2030, reversing a previous target of a 40% reduction over the same time-frame. And by June, fresh bidding for of ...

Group 1: Core Agreement and Collaboration - BP has signed a global frame agreement with the Subsea Integration Alliance, which includes SLB's OneSubsea and Subsea7, to enhance subsea project execution through collaboration and innovative commercial models [1][2] - The partnership aims to improve project outcomes and facilitate project delivery by leveraging cross-domain teams and expertise throughout the lifecycle of each project [1][2] Group 2: Contract Details - BP awarded a multimillion-dollar engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) contract to OneSubsea and Subsea7 for subsea pipelines and production systems in the UK North Sea [2] - Subsea7 expressed pride in its ongoing relationship with BP and emphasized the importance of early involvement in field development to provide a holistic approach to project planning and delivery [2][3] Group 3: Enhanced Capabilities - OneSubsea highlighted that the new agreement strengthens its long-standing relationship with BP, allowing for deeper collaboration from the initial field development phase to the extension of mature asset life [3] - The collaboration is expected to enhance OneSubsea's capabilities in field delivery and enable the deployment of tailored solutions for subsea projects [3]

Core Viewpoint - BP's stock has underperformed compared to the broader market and its industry, raising questions about its future performance [1] Earnings Estimate Revisions - BP is expected to report earnings of $0.79 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -31.3% with a recent estimate change of -7.2% [2] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $3.73, indicating a -22% change from the previous year, with a recent adjustment of -3% [3] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $4.29, suggesting a +15% increase from the prior year, although it has changed by -5.1% recently [3] - BP is rated Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) due to significant changes in earnings estimates and other related factors [3] Projected Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $63.56 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of +17.7% [4] - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is $224.55 billion, reflecting a +5.4% change, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $254.05 billion, indicating a +13.1% change [4] - BP reported revenues of $48.25 billion in the last quarter, a -2.5% year-over-year change, with an EPS of $1 compared to $0.89 a year ago [4] Valuation - BP is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [7] - Valuation multiples such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) are essential for assessing whether BP's stock is fairly valued [6] Conclusion - BP's Zacks Rank 5 suggests potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [8]

BP plc (BP) is set to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 29.Let us delve into the factors that are anticipated to have affected this integrated energy major’s quarterly performance. However, before that, it would be worth reviewing BP’s performance in the previous quarter.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.Highlights of Q2 EarningsIn the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of $1 per American Depositary Share on a replacement-cost basis (excluding non-ope ...