Financial Data and Key Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2023 was $105 million, with adjusted net income of $0.02 per share [2] - The average realized price for methanol was $303 per tonne, with produced sales of approximately 1.5 million tonnes [2] - The company entered Q3 with $500 million in cash and $300 million of undrawn backup liquidity [28] - Global average realized price for October and November is estimated at $310 to $320 per metric tonne [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Methanol demand improved in China, driven by stronger demand for MTBE and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) applications [25] - The olefins market showed improvement, but pricing remains below mid-cycle levels, with significant pressure on the sector [20] - The company is exploring opportunities to convert underutilized assets into green methanol production, particularly in the marine industry [21] Market Data and Key Metrics - Coal pricing in China increased from around RMB800 per tonne to above RMB1,000 per tonne during Q3, driven by supply disruptions [26] - Methanol demand outside China remained relatively flat compared to Q2, with high energy pricing and improved supply-demand fundamentals leading to slightly higher pricing [40] - North America, Asia-Pacific, and China posted prices for November were $549, $370, and $360 per metric tonne, respectively, while Europe posted €375 per metric tonne [41] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on completing the Geismar 3 (G3) project, with commercial production expected by the end of 2023 and a budget range of $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion [67] - Methanex is working on green and blue methanol projects, with over 200 ships expected to use methanol as fuel by 2027-2028, representing around 7 million tonnes of demand [105] - The company is also exploring renewable hydrogen and CO2 projects to green existing assets [21] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted challenges in the Trinidad gas market, with current production at 2.5 to 3 Bcf per day against demand of 4.5 Bcf per day [45] - The company expects higher adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2023 due to higher realized methanol prices and increased produced sales [43] - Methanex is monitoring the global macroeconomic environment, with high operating rates in the MTO sector and improved affordability from higher energy and olefins pricing [40] Other Important Information - The company is committed to repaying the $300 million bond due at the end of 2024, with any excess cash allocated to debt repayment rather than refinancing [28] - Methanex is working on long-term gas supply agreements in Trinidad and Chile, with improved gas availability from Argentina allowing for increased production guidance in Chile [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Chilean Gas Situation and Pressure Profile - Joel Jackson asked about the Chilean gas situation and its impact on the pressure profile for 2024, particularly during the summer months [6] - Rich Sumner explained that the gas situation in Chile is improving, with both plants expected to run at full rates from September 2023 through April 2024 [42] Question: Underutilized Assets and Green Methanol Opportunities - Hassan Ahmed inquired about opportunities for underutilized assets, including the possibility of relocating the Atlas plant or converting it to green methanol production [18] - Rich Sumner responded that the company is focused on securing long-term gas supply in Trinidad and is exploring green methanol projects but is not currently considering relocating Atlas [98] Question: Trinidad Gas Situation and Short-Term Challenges - Ben Isaacson asked about the short-term challenges in Trinidad's gas market and whether the company expects improvement [44] - Rich Sumner acknowledged the tight gas market in Trinidad but expressed optimism about long-term improvements, citing ongoing developments and incentives to restart capacity [45] Question: G3 Project and Inventory Build - Joel Jackson followed up on the G3 project, asking about the expected inventory build and its impact on cash flow [16] - Rich Sumner clarified that the G3 project is nearing completion, with commercial production expected by year-end, and that the inventory build would likely take 45 to 70 days to flow through earnings [74] Question: Green and Blue Methanol Strategy - Kevin Estok asked for updates on the company's green and blue methanol strategy and the impact of current interest rates on future investments [104] - Rich Sumner highlighted the growing demand for methanol in marine fuels and the company's efforts to produce green methanol using renewable natural gas in North America [105][106] Question: Cash Flow and Capital Allocation in 2024 - Matthew Blair inquired about the company's cash flow and capital allocation plans for 2024, including potential buybacks [99] - Rich Sumner emphasized the focus on repaying the $300 million bond and generating free cash flow, with any excess cash likely allocated to deleveraging and potentially returning cash to shareholders [99]

Jacob Bout Good morning. Rich Sumner Yes, I wanted to go back to that discussion on China and your thoughts on the low MTO affordability that we're dealing with right now. One, does that improve, because I thought part of the discussion, there was just the overcapacity situation wins for the Chinese olefins market given the ramp and new capacity there? Rich Sumner Yes, so the olefins market has been under pressure for well over a year. That's on the back of both like you said the new capacity that's been co ...

Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call October 27, 2022 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Sarah Herriott - Director, IR John Floren - President and CEO Rich Sumner - Incoming CEO Conference Call Participants Joel Jackson - BMO Capital Markets Ben Isaacson - Scotiabank Nelson Ng - RBC Capital Markets Steve Hansen - Raymond James Josh Spector - UBS Jacob Bout - CIBC Hassan Ahmed - Alembic Global Matthew Blair - TPH Chris Shaw - Monness Crespi Steve Hansen - Raymond James Operator W ...

Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call July 28, 2022 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Sarah Herriott - Director, IR John Floren - President and CEO Conference Call Participants Ben Isaacson - Scotiabank Joel Jackson - BMO Capital Markets Steve Hansen - Raymond James Nelson Ng - RBC Capital Markets Matthew Blair - TPH Josh Spector - UBS Laurence Alexander - Jefferies Hassan Ahmed - Alembic Global Charles Neivert - Piper Sandler John Roberts - Credit Suisse Operator Welcome to the ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2022, Methanex reported an average realized price of $425 per ton, adjusted EBITDA of $337 million, and adjusted net income of $159 million or $2.16 per share [11][19][21] - The company ended Q1 2022 with approximately $1.1 billion in cash and $600 million of undrawn backup liquidity [19][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production levels were lower in Q1 2022 compared to Q4 2021 due to lower gas availability in New Zealand and planned outages in Egypt [17][18] - The company forecasts 2022 production to be approximately 7 million equity tonnes, although actual production may vary [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand increased slightly in Q1 2022, driven by higher operating rates for methanol-to-olefins (MTO) plants [12] - North American methanol prices decreased by $21 per ton to $638 per ton, while Asia-Pacific and China prices decreased by $20 and $30 per ton to $520 and $470 per ton respectively [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on progressing the Geismar 3 project, which is expected to reach commercial production by late 2023 or early 2024, enhancing cash flow generation capability [21][22] - Methanex aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation, prioritizing cash generation, growth opportunities, and returning excess cash to shareholders [19][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the methanol market fundamentals remain solid, with no significant evidence of demand destruction despite elevated prices and geopolitical tensions [16][25] - The company expects Q2 2022 to be another excellent quarter for EBITDA generation and earnings, with strong cash generation and a fully funded G3 project [25][26] Other Important Information - The company announced a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.145 per share and an increase in the share buyback program [23] - Methanex released its 2021 sustainability report, outlining commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of COVID lockdowns in China on methanol demand - Management indicated no current impact on demand from COVID lockdowns, with pricing in China around $365 per ton, below the cost curve [29] Question: Factors setting methanol prices - Management stated that supply issues have driven higher pricing rather than the cost curve, with demand holding up well [40][41] Question: Update on G3 project costs and inflation - Management confirmed that labor is the primary cost concern moving forward, with no significant inflation pressures observed [44][46] Question: Dividend outlook and potential for special dividends - Management expressed a preference for share buybacks over special dividends, citing flexibility and tax implications for shareholders [81][82] Question: European methanol capacity and potential curtailments - Management noted that high gas prices in Europe make methanol production challenging, leading to potential curtailments [87][89] Question: Inventory levels in the methanol market - Management reported low inventory levels, as customers are running supply chains lean due to high prices [90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2021, Methanex reported the highest quarterly adjusted EBITDA in the company's history at $340 million and a record adjusted net income of $185 million, or $2.43 per share, primarily due to higher realized prices and increased sales volume [11][12] - For the full year 2021, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion and adjusted net income of $460 million, or $6.03 per share, significantly stronger compared to 2020 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production levels in Q4 2021 were significantly higher compared to Q3 2021, driven by higher gas availability in Chile and New Zealand, as well as record production at Geismar facilities [23] - In New Zealand, production was higher following the completion of a short-term commercial arrangement, with an estimated production of approximately 1.5 million tonnes in 2022 from the two Motunui plants [24] - Geismar facilities achieved record quarterly production, with an annual operating capacity increase of 10% to 2.2 million tonnes due to a debottlenecking project [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand in 2021 increased by approximately 5% to 86 million tonnes, driven by recovery in traditional chemical applications [13] - In Q4 2021, global methanol demand decreased by approximately 2% compared to Q3 2021, primarily due to lower demand from MTO producers and restrictions in China [14] - Methanol prices fluctuated in Q4 2021, with an average realized price increase of $55 per tonne to $445 per tonne compared to Q3 2021 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on managing through the pandemic, progressing the G3 project on time and on budget, and enhancing financial flexibility [33] - Methanex plans to use generated cash to maintain operations, pursue growth opportunities, and return excess cash to shareholders, with a preference for share buybacks [31][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about methanol market fundamentals, expecting robust demand growth in 2022 despite supply challenges [49] - The company anticipates a strong first quarter of 2022, with EBITDA expected to be similar to Q4 2021 due to higher forecasted sales [32] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 2021 with $932 million in cash and $900 million of undrawn liquidity, positioning it well for future capital expenditures [28] - Methanex's G3 project is expected to be completed on time and on budget by the end of 2023 or early 2024, with a capital cost estimate of $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What was the percentage of sales shifted to China? - Management indicated that the percentage is around 20% to 25% but did not provide an exact number during the call [38][39] Question: What is the guidance for the discount rate in 2022? - The company forecasts a discount rate of 20% on average for 2022 [40] Question: How is the natural gas pricing situation in Europe affecting capacity? - Management noted that there is capacity offline in Europe due to high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, impacting methanol production [43][44] Question: What is the outlook for supply and demand fundamentals in 2022? - Management expects supply challenges to persist in 2022, with traditional demand growing at GDP rates [46][49] Question: How is the dual control energy policy in China affecting production? - The company expects production rates in China to be higher in the summer months compared to Q4 2021, as natural gas becomes more available [57] Question: What is the impact of the discount rate on realized prices? - Management emphasized that realized prices are what drive earnings, and the discount rate varies by region [88][102] Question: What are the plans for capital allocation moving forward? - The company plans to focus on completing the G3 project and returning excess cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [109]

Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q3 2021 Earnings Conference Call October 28, 2021 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Kim Campbell - Director, Investor Relations John Floren - President & Chief Executive Officer Rich Sumner - Senior Vice President, Global Marketing & Logistics Conference Call Participants Joel Jackson - BMO Capital Markets Nelson Ng - RBC Capital Markets Jacob Bout - CIBC Edlain Rodriguez - Jefferies Mike Leithead - Barclays Hassan Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors Eric Petrie - Citi Matthew ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized price increased to $376 per tonne, a $13 increase compared to the first quarter [7] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $262 million, an increase of $20 million from the first quarter [7] - Adjusted net income was $95 million or $1.24 per share, up $13 million or $0.17 per share from the first quarter [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production in New Zealand was lower due to reduced gas availability, with an estimated production of 1.4 million tonnes for 2021 [10][12] - Geismar's production increased due to the completion of a planned turnaround, with an annual operating capacity now at 2.2 million tonnes, a 10% increase [10] - Trinidad's production was higher than the first quarter, with an estimated production of 1.1 million tonnes for 2021 [11] - Chile's production was lower than the first quarter, with an estimated production of 800,000 to 900,000 tonnes for 2021 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand increased by approximately 3% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels later this year [8] - Current methanol prices in August were $542 per tonne in North America and $420 per tonne in Asia Pacific [9] - The industry cost curve in China has increased to approximately $300 to $320 per tonne due to rising coal and natural gas prices [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the restart of construction on the Geismar 3 project, with a capital cost estimate of $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion [16] - The company aims to maintain financial flexibility, targeting a minimum of $300 million in cash on hand and reducing debt levels over time [17] - The company plans to increase shareholder distributions through share buybacks and dividends when methanol prices reach approximately $325 per tonne or higher [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the methanol market, citing strong demand and low inventory levels [8] - The company expects third-quarter production and adjusted EBITDA results to be similar to the second quarter [18] - Management noted that global demand for methanol is expected to continue growing through the second half of the year [55] Other Important Information - The company has over $750 million in cash on its balance sheet and a strong financial position [14] - The company is committed to enhancing sustainability and ESG-related disclosures [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on gas availability in Chile - Management indicated that gas availability in Argentina and Chile has improved, expecting both plants in Chile to operate by late third quarter or early fourth quarter [22][23] Question: Freight market impact - Management noted that liquid tanker rates are below average, and they expect higher prices to improve profitability [32] Question: Methanol unit operations at LyondellBasell - Management did not have specific information but mentioned that the unit was in a planned turnaround [35] Question: Demand growth forecast - Management expects demand to return to pre-pandemic levels later this year, with some applications still lagging [55] Question: Global shipping capacity for methanol - Management confirmed eight owned ships on order and expects more orders in the future, with significant demand from the industrial boiler market [68] Question: Liquidity and capital returns - Management reiterated their strategy to maintain cash reserves for G3 and return excess cash to shareholders flexibly [81] Question: Confidence in labor resources - Management expressed confidence in their labor capabilities, noting low turnover rates and a focus on diversity and inclusion [96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized methanol price increased to $363 per tonne, up by $81 compared to Q4 2020 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $242 million, an increase of $106 million over Q4 2020 [12] - Adjusted net income was $82 million or $1.07 per share, an increase of $70 million or $0.92 per share compared to Q4 2020 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production in Q1 2021 was 1.6 million tonnes, similar to Q4 results, with higher production from Atlas and Medicine Hat facilities offsetting lower production in New Zealand and Geismar [17] - New Zealand's production was lower due to reduced gas deliveries, with an estimated production of 1.5 million tonnes for 2021 [18] - Geismar's production was lower due to a planned turnaround, but record production levels were achieved post-turnaround [19] - Trinidad's production was higher than Q4 due to planned turnaround activities impacting the previous quarter [21] - Chile's production was higher, with the Chile I plant running nearly at full rates, while the Chile IV plant remained idle due to gas supply constraints [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand increased by approximately 5% compared to Q1 2020, with expectations to return to pre-pandemic levels later in 2021 [13][14] - The industry cost curve remains at approximately $260 to $280 per tonne, with spot prices in China above this range [15] - North American methanol price increased by $23 to $542 per tonne, while Asia Pacific price remained at $430 per tonne [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on financial flexibility and liquidity, with plans to decide on the next steps for the Geismar three project later in 2021 [26][27] - The company aims to balance capital allocation between growth opportunities and returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [26] - The company is optimistic about the global economic recovery and its impact on methanol demand, particularly as vaccines are rolled out [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the pandemic has created challenges but highlighted the resilience of the business model [9][10] - The company anticipates similar realized methanol prices in Q2 2021 compared to Q1, based on posted prices so far [29] - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of methanol demand and the favorable industry conditions continuing into the second quarter [14][28] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with over $850 million in cash and no debt maturities until the end of 2024 [25] - The company is monitoring industry operating rates and new capacity scheduled to start up later this year [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital allocation priorities - The company prioritizes financial flexibility and liquidity, balancing growth investments with returning excess cash to shareholders [36][37] Question: Market share importance - Leadership in the industry is more important than specific market share targets, with a focus on optimizing operations [48] Question: Labor market conditions for G3 - The labor market is currently stable, but there may be cost pressures as economic activity increases [55][56] Question: Methanol demand and pricing - Demand is expected to recover, with tight markets and low inventories supporting a favorable pricing environment [64][68] Question: Impact of Uri on demand - The demand loss was primarily in China, with expectations for recovery as the pandemic situation improves [87][88] Question: Trade flow changes and Iran - Trade flows have been affected by supply chain disruptions, and the situation with Iran remains uncertain [120][121] Question: Industry supply state post-COVID - The company has faced challenges in maintenance and reliability due to COVID-19, impacting overall operational efficiency [125][127]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2020, the company recorded adjusted EBITDA of $136 million and adjusted net income of $12 million, or $0.15 per share, which was higher than Q3 results primarily due to realized prices [12] - For the full year 2020, adjusted EBITDA was $346 million, with an adjusted net loss of $123 million, or $1.62 per share, reflecting lower realized methanol prices compared to 2019 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production levels in New Zealand increased in Q4 due to improved gas supply, but the outlook for 2021 is uncertain due to expected lower gas deliveries [19][20] - Geismar facilities achieved record production in Q4, benefiting from a completed debottlenecking project, with an expected annual capacity of 2.2 million tonnes [21] - Production in Trinidad remained stable in Q4, but 2021 production is estimated to decline to 900,000 tonnes due to upstream production declines [22] - Chile's production was higher in Q4, but lower gas deliveries later in the quarter led to idling of one plant, with 2021 production estimated at 900,000 to 1,000,000 tonnes [24] - Egypt's production in Q4 was similar to Q3, with 2021 production forecasted to be similar to 2020 levels of 6.6 million tonnes [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand increased by approximately 2% in Q4 2020 compared to Q3, but overall demand for 2020 was down 3% compared to 2019 [13][14] - Methanol prices in North America and Asia Pacific increased in early 2021, with February prices at $492 per tonne and $430 per tonne respectively [16] - The industry cost curve is estimated at approximately $260 per tonne, influenced by higher coal prices [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on maintaining liquidity and financial flexibility while prioritizing safe and reliable operations [30] - The Geismar 3 project is on hold, with a decision expected in mid-2021, contingent on market conditions and economic recovery [27][42] - The company is cautious about future investments and will assess the demand recovery before making significant capital allocation decisions [65] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about early signs of economic recovery but remains cautious due to ongoing uncertainties from the COVID-19 pandemic [28] - The company expects realized methanol prices in Q1 2021 to be higher than in Q4 2020, with production levels anticipated to be similar [29] - The management highlighted the challenges in gas supply across various regions, impacting production capabilities [55] Other Important Information - The company ended 2020 with a strong liquidity position of over $800 million in cash and no debt maturities until the end of 2024 [26] - The company is committed to returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company see normalization of various issues affecting operations? - Management indicated that predicting normalization is difficult, particularly regarding gas supply issues in New Zealand and Trinidad, which were unexpected [34] Question: How did the company manage to increase prices despite a weaker spot market? - Management explained that pricing decisions are based on supply-demand fundamentals and customer discussions, rather than solely on spot market prices [38] Question: What is the current status of the Geismar 3 project? - The company is targeting a decision on the Geismar 3 project in mid-2021, with ongoing evaluations of market conditions [42] Question: What are the expectations for methanol demand recovery? - Management noted that traditional demand was down 5% in 2020, with North America experiencing the most significant decline [80] Question: How does the company view the impact of LNG and coal price spikes on production? - Management stated that while coal prices could influence the cost curve, producers are currently running at full capacity due to favorable pricing dynamics [84]