Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the industry, including 中芯国际, 长电科技, 东山精密, and others [11] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the opportunities in the domestic storage and computing power sectors driven by AI, with a focus on the increasing demand for storage products and the development of domestic AI chips [2][3][26] - The launch of the iPhone 17 series is expected to boost the supply chain performance, with significant pre-order numbers indicating strong market demand [4][57] - Meta's introduction of AR glasses is seen as a step towards enhancing the metaverse experience, with expectations for increased market share in LCoS display technology [58][59] Summary by Sections Storage Sector - The storage market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, leading to price increases for HDD products, with Western Digital announcing price hikes due to unprecedented demand [14][15] - The shortage of HDDs is expected to accelerate the penetration of high-capacity enterprise SSDs, with significant growth anticipated in QLC SSD shipments by 2026 [15][16] - NAND Flash shortages are projected to persist until 2026, with major manufacturers announcing production cuts, leading to further price increases in the market [20][24] Computing Power Sector - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating self-research in AI chips, with significant projects like China Unicom's green computing center showcasing multiple domestic AI chip brands [26][29] - Huawei's roadmap for its Ascend AI chips indicates a series of upcoming releases, with substantial improvements in performance and memory bandwidth [29][40] - The introduction of supernodes by Huawei, such as the Atlas950 and Atlas960, is expected to significantly enhance computing power capabilities, supporting large-scale AI applications [47][48] Apple Product Launch - The iPhone 17 series has seen a record-breaking pre-order volume in China, with a nearly threefold increase compared to the previous generation, indicating strong consumer demand [57] - The new iPhone models feature advanced technology and design improvements, which are expected to drive sales and positively impact the supply chain [52][57] Meta's AR Glasses - Meta's Ray-Ban Display AR glasses are set to launch with advanced display technology, expected to capture a significant market share in the AR segment by 2026 [58][59] - The glasses feature a combination of LCoS display technology and optical waveguide, providing high-quality visuals while maintaining user privacy [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market, while experiencing some exuberance, is fundamentally different from the late 1990s tech bubble due to companies generating real profits, particularly in the AI sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Comparison - The price performance of stocks today is not comparable to the "insane" valuations seen during the dot-com bubble, with major tech companies being expensive but not at bubble levels [2]. - AI-related tech stocks are benefiting from significant earnings impacts, with Nvidia's stock rise attributed to extreme earnings and sales revisions rather than mere valuation increases [3][4]. - Oracle's stock surged nearly 40% after reporting a much stronger-than-expected AI revenue forecast, projecting cloud infrastructure revenue to reach $144 billion over the next four years, a significant increase from $18 billion this fiscal year [4]. Group 2: Financial Health of Companies - Companies in the current market have substantial excess cash flow, allowing them to buy back stocks while still investing in capital expenditures and R&D, contrasting sharply with the tech bubble era [4][5]. - AI adoption is seen as a transformative expenditure that could lead to substantial productivity gains across various industries [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The breadth of AI investment is much wider than the internet-focused trades of the late 1990s, with a quarter of companies adopting AI just three years after the launch of ChatGPT [7]. - Unlike the last two years of the tech bubble, where more stocks were declining than rising, the current market shows a trend of more stocks advancing, indicating a healthier market environment [8]. Group 4: Performance of Major Companies - Companies like Amazon, which were not profitable during the tech bubble, have since become significant players in the market, highlighting a shift in how value is created in the tech space [9]. - The Magnificent 7 stocks have driven much of the gains in the S&P 500, but they are not the top performers in the market this year, with Meta and Alphabet ranking lower in performance [10][11]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - There are opportunities in more value-oriented areas of the market, with a focus on positive earnings revisions and free cash flow, while some strategists anticipate a correction to moderate market enthusiasm [12]. - The S&P 500 experienced a 19% drop at its lowest point this year, but quickly recovered to set new highs, indicating resilience in the market [13].

Group 1 - A Tsinghua University graduate, Wu Jian, faces civil and criminal charges from the SEC and DOJ after posting a salary of $23.5 million (approximately 167 million RMB) on Xiaohongshu [2][3] - Wu Jian, a 34-year-old Chinese citizen residing in New York, is accused of wire fraud, securities fraud, and money laundering, and is currently at large [3] - The H-1B visa program is facing significant changes as Trump signs an executive order imposing a $100,000 fee for new applications, which previously cost only a few thousand dollars [4][5][6] Group 2 - Major tech companies, including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, are advising H-1B visa holders not to leave the U.S. due to the new fee, which could financially impact many employees [5][6] - TP-Link has disbanded its chip division, marking a significant setback in its self-developed chip project, with compensation for affected employees set at an N+3 standard [19][20] - Oracle is negotiating a $20 billion cloud computing deal with Meta, while also undergoing significant layoffs in its MySQL database team, raising concerns about the software's future [21] Group 3 - ByteDance announced it will proceed with TikTok's U.S. operations in compliance with Chinese laws, amidst ongoing scrutiny from the U.S. government [9][11] - Alibaba founder Jack Ma has been spotted back at the company, indicating a potential return to active involvement in its operations, particularly in AI and e-commerce strategies [13][14] - Weibo and Kuaishou have committed to rectifying issues related to their trending topics, following government intervention regarding content management [15][16][17] Group 4 - OpenAI reported that ChatGPT has surpassed 700 million weekly active users, with 73% of conversations unrelated to work, indicating a shift in user engagement [24][25] - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, becoming one of its largest shareholders, while also securing a new order worth $6.3 billion from CoreWeave [22][23] - Xiaomi is set to launch its new smartphone series, the Xiaomi 17, directly competing with Apple's iPhone, reflecting its commitment to high-end market positioning [27][28]

Core Insights - Meta has launched several new products, including the second-generation Ray-Ban AI glasses, but these glasses lack the ability to send iMessages due to Apple's strict control over its API [1] - Meta's CTO, Andrew Bosworth, expressed a willingness to expand their capabilities and urged Apple to grant access permissions [1] - Apple's ecosystem is under scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice and European regulators for its isolated operation, which prevents users from accessing Android versions of applications, thereby encouraging continued purchases of Apple products [1]

Market Overview - US stock market rose again on the last trading day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with tech stocks benefiting from the continued impact of interest rate cuts, while small-cap stocks retreated from record highs, leading the three major US stock indices to close at historical highs [1] - "Triple Witching Day" resulted in massive trading volume, marking the third-largest trading day on record [1] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 32.40 points, or 0.49%, closing at 6664.36 points, marking a weekly increase of 1.22% [8] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 172.85 points, or 0.37%, closing at 46315.27 points, with a weekly gain of 1.05% [8] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 160.751 points, or 0.72%, closing at 22631.476 points, with a weekly increase of 2.21% [8] - The Russell 2000 index fell by 0.77%, closing at 2448.769 points, but still recorded a weekly gain of 2.16% [8] Sector Performance - The oil and gas ETF fell by 2.13%, while the S&P energy sector declined by 1.34% [6] - The solar energy sector rose by 1%, and utilities increased by 0.64% [6] Notable Stocks - Xiaoma Zhixing surged by 18.4% after announcing plans to achieve key profitability targets by early 2026, with expected Robotaxi production of 1000 units this year [4][12] - WeRide's stock rose over 10% following the receipt of a Level 4 license for its autonomous minibuses in Belgium [4] - Infosys dropped by 4% due to news of a proposed $100,000 fee increase for H-1B visas [7] Commodity and Currency Markets - Gold regained momentum, rising over 1% and marking its fifth consecutive week of gains [1][30] - Silver reached $43 per ounce for the first time in 14 years, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 49% [7][30] - WTI crude oil fell for the third consecutive day, closing at $62.68 per barrel, with a weekly decline of over 0.01% [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs as the interest rate cut cycle begins, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.2% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% [3] - There is a significant divergence in industry performance, with 10 sectors rising and 12 falling [3] - The report highlights a steady upward revision in earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components, with a 0.3% increase in the next 12 months' EPS forecast [5] Price Trends - The S&P 500 rose by 1.2% this week, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.2% [3] - The best-performing sectors included Automotive & Components (+6.9%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+4.6%), and Media & Entertainment (+3.9%) [3] - The sectors that saw the largest declines were Durable Goods & Apparel (-2.4%) and Healthcare Equipment & Services (-1.8%) [3] Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was +134.6 billion USD this week, down from +215.4 billion USD the previous week [4] - Notable inflows were seen in Software & Services (+42.4 billion USD), Automotive & Components (+40.1 billion USD), and Semiconductor Products & Equipment (+26.3 billion USD) [4] - The sectors experiencing outflows included Healthcare Equipment & Services (-6.5 billion USD) and Durable Goods & Apparel (-2.1 billion USD) [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components, consistent with the previous week [5] - The Semiconductor Products & Equipment sector led the upward revisions with a +0.7% increase, followed by Energy (+0.6%) and Materials (+0.5%) [5] - The Durable Goods & Apparel sector was the only one to see a downward revision, with a -0.8% adjustment [5]

Core Points - The tech sector and other companies are advising H-1B visa holders against foreign travel due to a new $100,000 application fee imposed by the Trump administration [1][2] - Major companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have communicated to employees to return to the US and cancel travel plans following the announcement of the new rules [2][3] - The White House clarified that the fee applies only to new visa applications and not to current visa holders, but confusion remains regarding the enforcement of these changes [3][4] Company Responses - Microsoft expressed understanding of the uncertainty created by the new developments and advised employees to prioritize safety [4] - Amazon warned H-4 dependent visa holders to remain in the US, reflecting a cautious approach to the new regulations [5] - Walmart and Ernst & Young also issued similar guidance, advising employees to limit international travel until the situation is clearer [8][9] Visa Program Context - The H-1B visa program is crucial for the tech sector, allowing companies to hire skilled foreign workers, with major users including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta [6] - In 2025, over 470,000 applications were submitted for the H-1B lottery, which includes 65,000 visas and an additional 20,000 for US master's graduates [7] Legal and Industry Concerns - Immigration lawyers anticipate significant confusion and potential legal challenges to the new policy, with expectations of immediate court action [10] - Current visa holders are expressing anxiety over the changes, with some considering relocating to other countries if the situation does not improve [12] - The Trump administration's rationale for the changes is to enhance legitimate applications while reducing abuses, but companies are concerned about the sustainability of the high application fee [12][14]

Group 1 - Meta Platforms, Inc. is being closely monitored by analysts as a significant player in the AI sector, with Citi reiterating a "Buy" rating on the stock due to optimism surrounding the company's AI smart glasses [1] - The launch of three new AI smart glasses at the Connect conference has led to increased positivity regarding Meta's AI glasses and overall AI device strategy, with potential adoption reaching a tipping point by 2026 [2] - The integration of heads-up display and Neural Band in the new Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses has impressed analysts, who foresee multiple use cases as the technology develops [2] Group 2 - The glasses are viewed as a natural extension of AI technology, with the potential to enhance the internet user experience as superintelligence evolves [3] - Meta's product roadmap is expected to drive continued user engagement, monetization gains, and margin expansion due to strategic AI investments [3] - Despite the positive outlook for Meta, some analysts suggest that other AI stocks may present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices reached historical highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and S&P 500 up 0.49% [1] - Bank stocks showed mixed performance, with major banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase experiencing slight gains, while others like Zions Bank and United Bank saw small declines [3] - Technology stocks also displayed a mixed trend, with Apple rising 3.2%, Tesla up 2.21%, and Microsoft up 1.86%, while Intel fell 3.24% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks experienced narrow fluctuations throughout the day, closing down 0.25%, with Pinduoduo dropping 2.62% and several others like Li Auto and iQIYI also declining over 1% [3] - However, Xpeng Motors rose 1.74%, and Alibaba, Bilibili, and Baidu saw slight increases [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices opened higher, closing up 1.12% at $3719.4 per ounce, with intraday fluctuations between a low of $3664.4 and a high of $3719.6 [3] - The gold market is currently facing contradictions, balancing fears of high prices against prevailing trends [3]

Meta took some big swings with its Connect event this week, and as @EquityPod notes, some ran directly into the live demo curse. https://t.co/fNbn8MeBOC ...