The latest trading session saw Organon (OGN) ending at $15.06, denoting a +0.74% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.11%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.77%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.49%.The pharmaceutical company's shares have seen a decrease of 6.45% over the last month, not keeping up with the Medical sector's loss of 4.56% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.4%.Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Organon in its upcoming r ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's long positions in several pharmaceutical companies, including ABBV, MRK, AMGN, JNJ, and RHHBF, indicating a positive outlook on these stocks [1] - There is a mention of a potential long position in Organon & Co. within the next 72 hours, suggesting an interest in this stock as well [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, highlighting the inherent uncertainty in investment outcomes [3] - It clarifies that no specific investment recommendations are provided, and the views expressed may not represent the broader platform's stance [3]

Table of Contents Large accelerated filer ☒ Accelerated filer ☐ Non-accelerated filer ☐ Smaller reporting company ☐ Emerging growth company ☐ UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 _____________________ Form 10-Q ________________ (Mark One) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For ...

Financial Performance - Organon's Q3 2024 revenue reached $1.6 billion, a 5% increase ex-FX [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was $459 million, including $51 million in IPR&D and milestone expenses [7] - The company is on track to deliver approximately $1 billion of free cash flow before one-time spin-related costs for the full year 2024 [16] - Net leverage ratio was approximately 40x as of September 30, 2024 [17] Segment Performance - Women's Health revenue in Q3 2024 was $440 million, a 5% increase (6% ex-FX) compared to Q3 2023 [11, 34] - Nexplanon revenue increased by 10% (11% ex-FX) to $243 million in Q3 2024 [11] - NuvaRing revenue decreased by 45% to $23 million due to generic competition [11] - Jada revenue increased by 24% to $16 million in Q3 2024 [11] - Biosimilars revenue in Q3 2024 was $165 million, a 16% increase (17% ex-FX) compared to Q3 2023 [12, 34] - Hadlima revenue was $40 million in Q3 2024 [12] - Ontruzant revenue decreased by 49% to $20 million [12] - Established Brands revenue in Q3 2024 was $951 million, a 2% increase (3% ex-FX) compared to Q3 2023 [13, 34] Guidance - Full year 2024 revenue is expected to be between $6375 billion and $6425 billion, representing a 31% to 38% increase at constant currency [18, 23] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for full year 2024 is revised to 300% - 310% [29] - R&D expenses for full year 2024 are expected to be between $510 million and $550 million, including $81 million in IPR&D expenses [28, 27]

Core Insights - Organon reported revenue of $1.58 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, reflecting a 4.2% increase year-over-year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 billion by 1.37% [1] - The company's EPS was $0.87, consistent with the same quarter last year, and exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $0.85 by 2.35% [1] Revenue Performance - Women's Health revenue from Nexplanon/Implanon NXT in the U.S. was $172 million, exceeding the estimated $164.46 million, marking a 17.8% increase year-over-year [3] - U.S. geographic revenue was $398 million, slightly below the estimated $400.64 million, with a year-over-year increase of 7.6% [3] - Revenue from Women's Health NuvaRing was $7 million, significantly lower than the estimated $10.08 million, representing a 61.1% decrease year-over-year [3] - Revenue from Women's Health Follistim AQ was $26 million, slightly above the estimated $25.52 million, with an 18.2% year-over-year increase [3] - Total revenue from Women's Health was $440 million, below the estimated $452.30 million, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-over-year [3] - Total revenue from Biosimilars was $165 million, slightly below the estimated $168.58 million, with a year-over-year increase of 16.2% [3] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Organon shares have returned -3.5%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1% change [4] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Organon reported quarterly earnings of $0.87 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.85 per share, with a year-over-year comparison showing no change in earnings [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.58 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.37% and showing an increase from $1.52 billion a year ago [2] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Organon has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters, indicating consistent performance [2] - The recent quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 2.35%, following a previous surprise of 5.66% when actual earnings were $1.12 compared to an expected $1.06 [1][2] Group 2: Revenue Insights - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters, demonstrating strong revenue growth [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1 on revenues of $1.56 billion, while the estimate for the current fiscal year is $4.22 on revenues of $6.35 billion [7] Group 3: Stock Performance and Outlook - Organon shares have increased by approximately 24.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 21.9% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Group 4: Industry Context - The Medical Services industry, to which Organon belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Organon's upcoming quarterly earnings report is anticipated to show a slight decline in earnings per share but a modest increase in revenue compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Expected quarterly earnings of $0.85 per share, a decrease of 2.3% year-over-year [1] - Forecasted revenues of $1.56 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [1] - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate upward by 1.1% over the past 30 days [1] Revenue Estimates by Segment - Revenue from Women's Health - Nexplanon/Implanon NXT is estimated at $238.19 million, indicating an 8.3% increase year-over-year [3] - Revenue from Women's Health - Follistim AQ is projected at $66.32 million, showing a 22.8% increase from the prior year [4] - Total revenue from Biosimilars is expected to reach $168.58 million, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-over-year [4] - Total revenue from Women's Health is estimated at $452.30 million, indicating an 8.2% increase from the previous year [5] - Revenue from Women's Health - U.S. - Nexplanon/Implanon NXT is projected at $164.46 million, a 12.6% increase year-over-year [5] - Geographic revenue from the U.S. is expected to be $400.64 million, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the prior year [6] - Revenue from Women's Health - U.S. - NuvaRing is expected to decline to $10.08 million, a decrease of 44% year-over-year [6] - Revenue from Women's Health - U.S. - Follistim AQ is projected at $25.52 million, indicating a 16% increase from the previous year [7] - Revenue from Established Brands - Int'l - Non-Opioid Pain, Bone and Dermatology - Other is expected to be $69.71 million, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-over-year [8] - Revenue from Established Brands - Int'l - Non-Opioid Pain, Bone and Dermatology - Diprospan is projected at $34.34 million, reflecting a 10.8% increase [8] - Revenue from Established Brands - Int'l - Non-Opioid Pain, Bone and Dermatology - Fosamax is expected to be $35.27 million, a decrease of 11.8% year-over-year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Organon's shares have declined by 10.5%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 2% [9] - Organon currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [9]

Core Viewpoint - Organon (OGN) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending September 2024, with the earnings report set to be released on October 31, 2024 [1] Financial Expectations - The consensus estimate for Organon's quarterly earnings is $0.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2.3% [2] - Expected revenues for the quarter are $1.56 billion, which represents a 2.7% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.06% higher, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [3] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Organon is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.76%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [6] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [5] - Organon currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [6] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Organon exceeded the expected earnings of $1.06 per share by delivering $1.12, resulting in a surprise of +5.66% [7] - Over the past four quarters, Organon has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [7] Conclusion - An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [8] - Organon does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [8]

Group 1: Company Performance - Organon closed at $18.10, with a +0.56% change from the previous day, lagging behind the S&P 500's gain of 0.77% [1] - The stock has decreased by 12.07% over the past month, underperforming the Medical sector's loss of 3% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.87% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Organon's earnings report is expected on October 31, 2024, with projected earnings of $0.97 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 11.49% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $1.56 billion, reflecting a 2.44% increase from the previous year [2] Group 3: Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $4.34 per share and revenue at $6.34 billion, showing changes of +4.83% and +1.28% respectively from the prior year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Organon are important as they reflect short-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which considers these estimate changes, provides an operational rating system for investors [5] Group 5: Zacks Rank and Valuation - Organon currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having increased by 0.3% in the past month [6] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 4.14, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.29, and a PEG ratio of 0.75 compared to the industry average of 1.81 [7] Group 6: Industry Context - The Medical Services industry, which includes Organon, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 192, placing it in the bottom 24% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Organon (OGN) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 9.9% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier. Guide to Identifying Oversold Stocks We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is o ...