Core Insights - SM Energy Company reported record financial and operational results for 2024, achieving significant increases in oil production, estimated net proved reserves, and gross drilling locations [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - Net income for the full year 2024 was $770.3 million, or $6.67 per diluted common share, compared to $817.9 million, or $6.86 per diluted common share in 2023 [21][25]. - Adjusted net income for 2024 was $785.1 million, or $6.80 per diluted common share, up from $702.5 million, or $5.89 per diluted common share in 2023 [25]. - Adjusted EBITDAX for 2024 was $1.99 billion, compared to $1.71 billion in 2023 [23]. Production and Reserves - Record oil production for 2024 was 29.4 million barrels (MMBbls), or 80.2 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), a 23% increase from 2023 [5][17]. - Total net production for 2024 was 62.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), or 170.5 MBoe/d, up 12% from 2023 [5][17]. - Estimated net proved reserves at year-end 2024 were 678 MMBoe, a 12% increase from year-end 2023 [8][11]. Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditures for 2024 totaled $1.29 billion, with 142 net wells drilled and 135 net flowing completions [20]. - The company returned $169 million to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share buybacks, achieving an approximate 4% yield to market capitalization [5][4]. Operational Strategy and Future Outlook - The 2025 operational plan aims to optimize capital efficiency and is expected to increase net production by over 20% and oil production by over 30% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company plans to focus on integrating Uinta Basin operations, generating free cash flow, and reducing debt to a target leverage of 1 times [6][32]. Leadership Changes - The company announced the retirement of Jennifer Martin Samuels, Vice President - Investor Relations and ESG Stewardship, effective March 7, 2025, with new officer appointments effective March 2, 2025 [7][10]. Market Conditions and Pricing - The average realized price for oil in 2024 was $74.49 per barrel, while natural gas averaged $2.27 per MMBtu [24][36]. - The company hedged approximately 30% of expected 2025 net oil and natural gas production at favorable prices [34]. Financial Position and Liquidity - At year-end 2024, the company's long-term debt was $2.80 billion, with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDAX ratio of 1.4 [27][28]. - Available liquidity was reported at $1.93 billion, indicating a strong financial position [28].

Core Viewpoint - SM Energy (SM) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.93 per share, reflecting a +23.7% change, and revenues expected to reach $868.32 million, up 42.6% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for February 19, and the stock may rise if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 7.54% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +0.36% for SM Energy, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. - A strong predictor of an earnings beat is a positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which SM Energy currently holds [8][11]. Historical Performance - SM Energy has a history of exceeding consensus EPS estimates, having beaten expectations in the last four quarters, including a +6.58% surprise in the most recent quarter [12][13]. Industry Comparison - In the same industry, EQT Corporation is expected to report earnings of $0.50 per share, reflecting a +4.2% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $1.73 billion, up 12% [17]. - EQT's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 11.2% lower recently, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate results in a positive Earnings ESP of 7.44%, indicating a potential earnings beat [18].

Core Insights - SM Energy is well-positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having a history of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 12.21% [1][3] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, SM Energy achieved earnings of $1.62 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 per share, resulting in a surprise of 6.58% [2] - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $1.85 per share against an expectation of $1.57 per share, delivering a surprise of 17.83% [2] Earnings Estimates - Recent estimates for SM Energy have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP of +0.36%, indicating increased analyst optimism regarding the company's earnings prospects [3][6] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat in the upcoming report [6] Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, indicating a strong predictive power for earnings performance [4][5] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5]

Core Viewpoint - SM Energy (SM) has experienced a significant decline in stock performance, returning -12.7% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +1.9% [2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.93 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +23.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has risen by +13.2% in the last 30 days [5]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year stands at $6.78, indicating a year-over-year change of +15.1%, with a +12.1% increase in estimates over the past month [5]. - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $8.10, representing a +19.4% change from the previous year, with a +12.2% increase in estimates recently [6]. - SM Energy holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to significant changes in consensus estimates and other related factors [7]. Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $868.32 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of +42.6%. For the current and next fiscal years, the revenue estimates are $2.75 billion and $3.47 billion, reflecting changes of +15.7% and +26.2%, respectively [9]. Last Reported Results - In the last reported quarter, SM Energy generated revenues of $643.61 million, a year-over-year increase of +0.4%. The EPS was $1.62, compared to $1.73 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of -1.15% and an EPS surprise of +6.58% [11]. Valuation - SM Energy is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [15].

Core Viewpoint - SM Energy is expected to show significant earnings growth in its upcoming release, with a projected EPS of $1.93, reflecting a 23.72% increase year-over-year, and a revenue forecast of $868.32 million, indicating a 42.64% rise compared to the same quarter last year [2]. Company Performance - SM Energy's stock closed at $39.61, down 1.1% from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.53% [1]. - Over the past month, SM Energy shares have appreciated by 3.33%, which is below the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 5.88% but above the S&P 500's gain of 1.24% [1]. Analyst Forecasts - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for SM Energy are being closely monitored, as positive changes in estimates indicate optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3]. - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for SM Energy has increased by 12.09% over the past month, reflecting positive sentiment among analysts [5]. Valuation Metrics - SM Energy is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 4.95, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 9.39 [6]. - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 57, placing it in the top 23% of over 250 industries [6]. Zacks Rank System - SM Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which has historically generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5].

Core Insights - The article introduces a new contributing analyst to Seeking Alpha, emphasizing the opportunity for individuals to share investment ideas and get published [1] Group 1 - The focus is on long-term and medium-term value investing, targeting companies with strong fundamentals across various sectors [2] - The analyst has passed CFA Level 1 and has prior experience as an equity research intern, indicating a foundation in financial analysis [2] Group 2 - The article clarifies that the analyst has no current stock or derivative positions in any mentioned companies, ensuring objectivity in the analysis [3] - Seeking Alpha's disclosure highlights that past performance does not guarantee future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [4]

Core Viewpoint - SM Energy (SM) shows potential as a strong investment opportunity due to significant upward revisions in earnings estimates, indicating an improving earnings outlook [1][2] Estimate Revisions - The trend of increasing estimate revisions reflects growing analyst optimism regarding SM Energy's earnings prospects, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [2] - For the current quarter, SM Energy is projected to earn $1.93 per share, marking a year-over-year increase of +23.72%, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising by 13.23% over the last 30 days [4] - For the full year, the expected earnings per share is $6.78, representing a year-over-year change of +15.11%, with a consensus estimate increase of 12.09% despite some negative revisions [5] Zacks Rank - SM Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong agreement among analysts on the upward revision of earnings estimates, which historically correlates with stock outperformance [3][6] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 and 2 have shown significant outperformance compared to the S&P 500, suggesting a favorable investment environment for SM Energy [6] Investment Outlook - The stock has appreciated by 6% over the past four weeks due to strong estimate revisions, and further upside potential remains, making it a candidate for portfolio inclusion [7]

In the latest trading session, SM Energy (SM) closed at $44.12, marking a -1.28% move from the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.21%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.16%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.89%.Prior to today's trading, shares of the independent oil and gas company had gained 20.3% over the past month. This has outpaced the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 6.25% and the S&P 500's loss of 1.56% in that time.Investors will ...

Company Performance - SM Energy's stock closed at $37.68, reflecting a gain of +0.37% from the previous trading session, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.04% [1] - Over the past month, SM Energy shares have decreased by 16.26%, which is significantly worse than the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 8.03% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.05% [1] Earnings Estimates - The upcoming EPS for SM Energy is projected at $1.96, indicating a 25.64% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $867.25 million, representing a 42.47% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $6.77 per share and revenue of $2.73 billion, marking increases of +14.94% and +15.09% respectively from the previous year [7] Analyst Sentiment - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for SM Energy indicate a positive outlook, with a 0.03% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [3][4] - SM Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a neutral sentiment among analysts [4] Industry Context - SM Energy operates within the Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which is ranked 138 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 46% of over 250 industries [5] - The industry is currently facing challenges, as indicated by its lower ranking compared to other sectors [5] Valuation Metrics - SM Energy has a Forward P/E ratio of 5.54, which is below the industry's Forward P/E of 10.03, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers [9]

Group 1 - SM Energy (NYSE: SM) reported Q3 2024 results with production 3% above the midpoint of its guidance and capital expenditures below guidance [2] - The company is currently integrating its Uinta Basin acquisitions, which may impact Q4 2024 results [2] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in analytical roles, particularly in the energy sector, and mentions a focus on value opportunities and distressed plays [2]