半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 进入 25Q2 以来，海外对国内半导体先进制程代工、算力芯片等出口管制仍趋 严，但在此背景下国内先进制程产能和良率持续提升，国内沐曦和摩尔线程招 股书均强调国内先进代工、HBM 和 2.5D 封装等供应链自主可控提速，部分半 导体设备/材料等厂商 25Q2 签单和业绩增长趋势向好。同时，国内半导体其他 环节如存储/模拟/MCU 等细分领域景气度持续回暖，部分 SoC 厂商指引下游需 求依然旺盛。建议关注国内自主可控提速的半导体代工/设备/材料/零部件/算力 芯片等领域、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块， 同时建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 2、库存端：手机链相对稳定 PC 链环比仍有提升，功率类库存望达周期峰值。 全球手机链芯片大厂 25Q1 库存环比微降/库存周转天数环比提升，PC 链芯片 厂商 25Q1 库存环比微增/库存周转天数环比下降，英特尔表示整个行业都采 取了更为保守的库存策略，AMD 表示游戏厂商启动库存补货周期。全球模拟 芯片厂商库存 25Q1 环比仍有增长，TI 表示所有终端客户库存处于低位。功 率类芯片公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing a recovery in various segments despite tightening export controls from overseas, with a focus on self-sufficiency and innovation in advanced processes, equipment, and materials [1][18]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Since Q2 2025, export controls on advanced semiconductor processes and computing chips from overseas have intensified, yet domestic production capacity and yield continue to improve [1]. - The semiconductor index in June 2025 increased by 5.96%, lagging behind the Philadelphia semiconductor index and Taiwan semiconductor index, which rose by 16.54% and 8.15% respectively [27]. Group 2: Demand Side - The demand for consumer electronics is recovering, with global smartphone shipments in Q1 2025 increasing by 1.5% year-on-year, and China's shipments rising by 3.3% [3]. - AI applications are driving innovation in various sectors, including automotive and wearable devices, with global AI glasses shipments soaring by 216% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [3]. - The automotive market in China remains strong, with significant orders for new models like Xiaomi's YU7 [3]. Group 3: Inventory Trends - The smartphone supply chain remains stable, while the PC supply chain shows slight improvement in inventory levels [4]. - Global inventory levels for major smartphone chip manufacturers decreased slightly in Q1 2025, while PC chip manufacturers saw a minor increase [4]. Group 4: Supply Side - TSMC is increasing its capital expenditure for advanced process lines in the U.S., with a projected investment of $100 billion [5]. - Major memory manufacturers are focusing their capital expenditures on high-end memory products, with Micron's revenue in FY25Q3 exceeding guidance [6][10]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for memory products, particularly DDR4, have seen a significant increase, with an approximate 50% rise since late May 2025 [6]. - The prices of high-capacity NAND products are also on the rise, indicating a recovery in consumer product prices [6]. Group 6: Sales Performance - Global semiconductor sales reached $57 billion in April 2025, marking a 22.7% year-on-year increase and the first month of sequential growth in 2025 [7]. Group 7: Industry Chain Tracking - The semiconductor industry chain is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a focus on companies benefiting from self-sufficiency and recovery in demand [8]. - Domestic companies in the semiconductor design and manufacturing sectors are expanding their product offerings and customer bases, with notable IPOs from companies like Muxi and Moer Thread [9]. Group 8: Investment Recommendations - The focus on self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain is expected to accelerate, with positive trends in orders and revenue for domestic equipment and material manufacturers [16][18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Oracle announced a $30 billion order and plans to expand data centers in the U.S., with multi-cloud database revenue growing at over 100% [4][7]. - CoreWeave received the first batch of NVIDIA GB300 servers, significantly enhancing AI processing capabilities and efficiency [8]. - Figma is preparing for a major IPO, projecting $749 million in revenue for 2024, with a focus on integrating AI into its design platform [9][13]. - The AI sector is experiencing a new technology cycle driven by increased computational power, model iteration, and accelerated commercialization [4]. - ByteDance's Doubao launched a new "In-Depth Research" feature, enhancing its AI capabilities for complex task processing [22][26]. Summary by Sections Oracle - Oracle's CEO stated a strong start to FY26, with multi-cloud database revenue growing over 100% and a significant contract with OpenAI expected to contribute over $30 billion annually starting FY28 [4][7]. CoreWeave - CoreWeave announced the receipt of NVIDIA's latest GB300 servers, which enhance AI model output efficiency by up to 50 times, marking a significant advancement in AI cloud services [8]. Figma - Figma aims for a $1.5 billion IPO, with 2024 revenue projected at $749 million, reflecting a 48% year-over-year growth. The platform is embedding AI to improve design efficiency [9][13]. AI Dynamics - The AI industry is witnessing a robust cycle characterized by high demand for computational power and rapid advancements in AI applications, with major companies like Oracle and CoreWeave leading the charge [4]. ByteDance - ByteDance's Doubao introduced the "In-Depth Research" feature, which allows users to process complex tasks and generate structured reports, indicating a shift towards deeper AI application capabilities [22][26].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's investment in the U.S. will not affect its existing projects in other regions, countering reports from The Wall Street Journal regarding delays in its Japan expansion due to U.S. tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Investment and Expansion - TSMC is taking U.S. tariff threats seriously and is reallocating resources to accelerate its investment in Arizona, where a large chip manufacturing center is under construction [3]. - The company has committed to a $100 billion investment to build three additional fabs, two integrated circuit assembly plants, and a research center [6]. Group 2: Japan Expansion - TSMC's first wafer fab in Kumamoto, Japan, began production at the end of last year, while the second fab's construction has been slightly delayed due to local transportation issues [5]. - Although there is no confirmed timeline for the second fab's construction, reports suggest it may face further delays [6]. Group 3: Global Operations - TSMC is also constructing a new fab in Dresden, Germany, which is expected to start production in 2027 [7]. - The company’s global expansion strategy is influenced by various factors, including customer demand, business opportunities, operational efficiency, government support, and overall costs [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future of semiconductor technology, emphasizing the transition from traditional silicon-based materials to two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor materials as a key focus for innovation and development in the industry [2][12][53]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Predictions - IMEC predicts that by 2039, the second generation of 2D Field Effect Transistors (2DFET) will become mainstream, highlighting the growing importance of 2D materials in semiconductor technology [4][53]. - The global market for 2D semiconductor materials is expected to reach $1.8 billion in 2024, with graphene being the largest segment, accounting for 45% of the market share [16]. - The market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24%-26.5% from 2025 to 2030, driven by demand in 5G communication, AIoT, and high-performance computing [16]. Group 2: Material Innovations - The transition to 2D semiconductor materials is seen as a solution to the challenges posed by traditional silicon-based devices, which face physical limitations such as quantum tunneling and short-channel effects [5][12]. - 2D materials, such as graphene and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), offer unique electrical properties and the potential for higher integration densities, with vertical field-effect transistors (VFETs) achieving densities ten times that of FinFETs [6][14]. - Research has shown that 2D materials can be engineered to exhibit a wide range of electronic properties, making them suitable for various applications, including neuromorphic devices and quantum computing [9][12]. Group 3: Industrial Applications and Developments - Companies like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are investing heavily in the research and integration of 2D semiconductor materials, pushing the industry from laboratory experiments to large-scale production [16]. - The first domestic engineering demonstration line for 2D semiconductors has been launched, aiming to develop commercial production lines within three years [17]. - Significant advancements have been made in the development of flexible integrated circuits based on 2D materials, with successful demonstrations of medium-scale circuits that integrate over 100 transistors [45][50]. Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - The integration of 2D materials into existing semiconductor processes presents challenges, including the need for compatible substrates and the management of high-temperature growth processes [54][57]. - Researchers are exploring various methods to overcome these challenges, such as using low-resistance source/drain contacts and alternative doping techniques to enhance the performance of 2D devices [58][59]. - The industry is also focusing on developing heterogeneously integrated chip technologies that leverage existing silicon ecosystems while incorporating 2D materials [59].

With the market at or near all-time highs, finding so-called dirt cheap stocks isn't always easy; however, there are plenty of examples out there. Two stocks that I'd consider dirt cheap are Alphabet (GOOG 0.51%) (GOOGL 0.54%) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.75%). Each has a different reason for being labeled as cheap, but I think both qualify. Both of these stocks look like great bargains and can be bought confidently today without fear of losing a ton of money. Compared to the S&P 500 (^GSPC ...

Core Insights - The article discusses significant developments in the semiconductor industry, highlighting investments, policy changes, and market trends that could impact future growth and competition in the sector. Group 1: Investment and Policy Initiatives - Shenzhen has established a semiconductor and integrated circuit investment fund with a total scale of 5 billion yuan to support the optimization and quality improvement of the industry chain [5] - Shanghai has implemented joint support policies for key industrial chains, including integrated circuits and aerospace, to accelerate the cultivation of these sectors [5] - Hong Kong has approved the construction of its first 8-inch silicon carbide wafer factory, marking a significant step in semiconductor manufacturing [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - South Korea's semiconductor exports increased by 11.6% year-on-year in June, reaching a record high of $14.97 billion [7] - The U.S. Senate has passed a tax bill that could increase tax credits for semiconductor companies building new factories from 25% to 35% [8] - By 2030, mainland China is projected to surpass Taiwan and become the largest semiconductor wafer foundry center globally, capturing 30% of the total installed capacity [8] Group 3: Company Developments - TSMC is reportedly planning to cease production on its GaN production line to focus on advanced packaging [6] - Samsung's semiconductor division is expected to report a 39% drop in operating profit for Q2 due to delays in supplying advanced memory chips to Nvidia [11] - The bankruptcy review application for the advanced packaging equipment company, Paixin Semiconductor, has been filed, indicating financial distress [9][10] Group 4: Technology and Innovation - Tokyo University has developed a new gallium-doped indium oxide crystal material that could replace silicon, enhancing performance in AI and big data applications [19] - The upcoming LPDDR6 memory is set to be mass-produced by Samsung in late 2025, with Qualcomm as the first adopter [19] Group 5: Market Analysis - TrendForce reports that the price of 16Gb DDR4 DRAM chips continues to rise, while PC-grade DRAM prices are losing momentum [16] - CFM forecasts that LPDDR4X prices will increase by over 20% in Q3 2025, while LPDDR5X prices will see slight increases [17]

Group 1 - TSMC denies claims of delaying chip factory construction in Japan, emphasizing that investments in the US will not affect plans in Japan and Germany [1] - Samsung Electro-Mechanics has abandoned plans for a new manufacturing plant in Mexico due to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, dissolving its subsidiary in Mexico [1] - NIO aims for a battery lifespan of 15 years with 85% health availability, addressing concerns about battery longevity and vehicle usage [1] - A new intelligent robot training camp has been established in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, showcasing robots performing tasks in simulated industrial environments, providing low-cost solutions for flexible production [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to revoke exemptions for Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC regarding their wafer fabs in China, requiring them to apply for licenses to use U.S. equipment [1] - The potential visit of Trump to China suggests a shift in U.S.-China trade relations, indicating a possible move towards cooperation rather than continued conflict [1] Group 2 - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3500 points, with the banking sector hitting a historical high, while the index continued to rise to 4500 points [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision in July is expected to significantly impact market trends, with a 90% probability of no interest rate cut, making a reversal in the Shanghai Composite Index unlikely [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating within a defined range since September last year, with key resistance and support levels identified [5] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index has shown active performance due to a rebound from previous declines, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to continue its upward trend [6] - The new energy and electric vehicle sectors are anticipated to provide potential opportunities for the ChiNext Index, given their significant weight in the index [6] Group 4 - The three major A-share indices exhibited mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 0.32% [7]

Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission of China signed cooperation documents with Brazilian authorities, including a memorandum on the second phase of strategic alignment and cooperation in artificial intelligence [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation exposed six typical cases of "involution" competition in product quality, including a case involving Shaoxing Hongguan New Energy Co., which sold substandard "liquid wax alcohol ether composite diesel fuel" [3] - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand cars in China reached 7.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while the transaction value was 516.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [4] International News - Tesla's Cybertruck sales are sluggish, with a global delivery of approximately 384,000 units in Q2, a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, marking the largest drop in the company's history. Deliveries of "other models" (including Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck) were about 10,400 units, down 52% year-on-year. Cybertruck sales in Q1 were estimated to be between 5,000 to 6,000 units, far below the target of 250,000 units per year set by Elon Musk for 2025 [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida stated that Japan is prepared for all possible tariff scenarios and will defend its interests while promoting zero tariffs on automobiles [6] - Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority signed a memorandum with Pony.ai to launch pilot tests for autonomous vehicles, with plans for phased implementation starting in 2025 and full commercial operation by 2026 [7] - The EU is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding trade negotiations with the US, with countries like Germany and Italy pushing for quick agreements, while France, Spain, and Denmark express concerns about potential concessions. The outlook for negotiations is not optimistic [8] Corporate News - NIO's CEO Li Bin announced that the starting price for the L90 model will be below 300,000 yuan, with display vehicles set to arrive on July 10 and pre-sales commencing [11] - Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, emphasized the importance of open communication among new energy vehicle leaders and suggested that Xiaomi's success in the automotive sector requires a full commitment [12] - BYD announced a strategic partnership with Shanghai LEGO Land Resort to focus on green travel and immersive driving experiences for children aged 2-12 [13] - TSMC is reportedly delaying the construction of its second factory in Japan due to potential tariffs from the Trump administration, as the company accelerates investments in the US [14] - New Stone Technology's autonomous vehicles signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Shenzhen Car Rental Industry Association, aiming to provide 1,000 autonomous vehicles to enhance smart logistics [15]