Key Points - **Industry/Company Involved**: EJR4I专题，西南医药 - **Analyst**: 刘潇，西南医药分析师 - **Purpose of the Report**: To provide an update on the EJR4I topic [1].

Macroeconomic Outlook - US economic growth is expected to moderate, with government spending and service consumption contributing less to GDP in the future[6] - Eurozone growth has improved due to falling inflation, but upcoming French elections introduce political uncertainty that could impact economic stability[7] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates, with a potential 160 basis points of cuts over the next three years, starting with two 25 basis point cuts later this year[31] Fixed Income Outlook - Developed market bonds, particularly US Treasuries, are expected to provide attractive income and value, with a focus on longer-dated Treasuries[10][14] - Demand for US Treasuries has increased significantly, driven by weaker economic fundamentals and reduced competition from corporate bonds[16] - Fiscal policy in the US is likely to peak, with interest costs crowding out necessary spending, which may lead to increased market volatility[19] Currency and Emerging Markets - The US dollar is expected to weaken as fiscal support diminishes, with real GDP growth slowing to 2% in the first half of 2024[46] - Emerging market currencies performed well in early 2024 but faced corrections due to changing valuations and rising political risks[45] - Political developments in the US elections could significantly impact currency performance, particularly if a Republican sweep occurs[46] Investment Strategy - A cautious approach is recommended due to potential election-induced market volatility, with a preference for smaller positions to withstand price movements[21] - High-yield bonds are expected to remain attractive, supported by strong demand and limited new supply, particularly in refinancing[59] - Structured credit sectors like CRT and CLO are anticipated to outperform due to solid housing fundamentals and healthy household balance sheets[87]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a regional and ecosystem-based investment approach to capitalize on the semiconductor industry's growth potential, particularly in Asia [2][28]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is crucial for technological innovation and economic growth, with a projected market value of approximately $1.38 trillion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 12.2% from $573.44 billion in 2022 [5][28]. - Asia plays a central role in the semiconductor ecosystem, with key players including Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and emerging contributors like India and Southeast Asia [2][10]. - The complexity and fragility of the semiconductor supply chain present both risks and opportunities for investors, emphasizing the need for a diversified investment strategy [6][28]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Overview - The global semiconductor market was valued at approximately $573.44 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $1.38 trillion by 2029, driven by demand for electronic devices and advancements in AI [5][28]. - The semiconductor industry is integral to various sectors, including personal computing, automotive, healthcare, and military systems [5][28]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The semiconductor supply chain is complex and globally integrated, with significant concentration in specific geographical regions, making it fragile [6][9]. - Major segments of the supply chain include IC design (market size: $165 billion), wafer fabrication (market size: $103 billion), and packaging & testing (market size: $36 billion) [7]. Regional Insights - Taiwan and South Korea are leaders in foundry services and memory chip production, respectively, supported by strategic government policies and investments in R&D [10][12]. - Japan has shifted focus to specialized high-value products, maintaining a strong position in semiconductor materials and equipment [13][12]. - India aims to become one of the top five chip producers within five years, supported by government initiatives and a growing domestic market [14][18]. Emerging Technologies - Innovations such as quantum computing, energy-efficient chips, and neuromorphic computing are expected to shape the future of the semiconductor market [27][28]. - The ongoing evolution in semiconductor technology is critical for sustaining performance improvements and addressing the challenges posed by Moore's Law [24][28]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights compelling investment prospects across Asia due to established leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and emerging capabilities in countries like India and Indonesia [28][29]. - An ecosystem-based investment approach is recommended to leverage demographic advantages and geostrategic locations in the region [28][29].

我是招人权特别分析师张夏不好意思刚才那个系统出了点问题然后这个刚刚接入了登录的时候出现了一个软件突然假死的情况今天我们是汇报一篇之前写了一篇新的报告这个也是我们对风格A股风格的一个理解的一个新的一篇报告 那么众所周知就是A股呢他在做投资的时候最重要的他不是去择时看多或看空嗯行业比较也非常重要但是其实呢就是在做行业比较过程当中呢呃不同的行业具有明显的这种属性啊那么把这种属性的核子让我们把它叫风格实际上我们所有的这个A股啊最重要的一件事情呢是把这个风格或者说资产类型呢给它搞清楚啊这个是事半功倍的 就是说你天天在外面调研啊或者研究啊五千多家上公司你肯定都不可能都研究的完对吧那你研究哪些公司才是有价值的那这个就是需要一套方法论去指导啊也就是说到底我应该在什么时候去选择一个什么样类型的公司那么今天呢我们来讨论一下一种新的资产类型啊就是基于这个FCF和ROE以及DCF的定价模型的策略框架 而这些词看起来有点唬人啊但其实都是我们平时经常用的一些啊比较基本的概念呃这个啊fcf呢就是自由限流free cash flow啊他的核心啊这个大家应该都一般都比较清楚啊就是把这个企业正德的经营性限流金额 减去必要的资本开支和一些正常的这 ...

In our view, prudent stock selection and portfolio positioning remain critical as investors navigate the push-and-pull effects of lower interest rates. Despite impending rate cuts, interest rates are unlikely to return to the near-zero level during the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, companies with weak balance sheets should not be expected to see improved financial health and sustained earnings growth just on rate cuts alone. Rate cuts may particularly drag on the profitability and shareholder return of the fi ...

Emerging Markets Insights Exhibit 1: Emerging Market Country Performance As of March 31, 2024 One-month performance 12-month performance India Taiwan South Korea Brazil Thailand China South Africa Egypt Mexico Qatar Colombia Chile Poland Saudi Arabia Peru Indonesia Turkey Greece Philippines Czech Republic United Arab Emirates Malaysia Hungary Kuwait -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Sources: FactSet, MSCI. Note: Bubbles size reflect relative market capitalization, ...

US equity opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven March 2024 Chris Galipeau Senior Market Strategist Key takeaways • High earnings expectations combined with a slowing economy may make the stock market prone to disappointments in 2024. Samir Sinha Senior Analyst • The “dot-com” period, which featured similar index concentration and falling interest rates, offers clues to trends this year. • We see attractive potential in areas that would allow investors to diversify their US equity portfolios beyond the ...