Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 226.67 CNY [3][5] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous high revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 90.7 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 45% year-on-year increase [8] - The company significantly increased its R&D investment to approximately 2.45 billion CNY in 2024, a 94% increase compared to the previous year, driven by the rising demand for new equipment [8] - The company's contract liabilities surged by 235% to approximately 2.59 billion CNY by the end of 2024, indicating strong order expectations [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 120.49 billion CNY, 156.24 billion CNY, and 200.09 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 28% respectively [4][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 24.33 billion CNY, 33.60 billion CNY, and 44.60 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 51%, 38%, and 33% respectively [3][9] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 42.3% to 44.3% over the forecast period, with a slight dip to 41.1% in 2024 due to structural changes in customer base [4][8] Equipment Sales and Market Position - The company experienced significant growth in etching equipment sales, with over 1,200 reaction chambers shipped in 2024, marking a historical high [8] - The company’s new deposition equipment has started contributing to revenue, with over 150 LPCVD reaction chambers shipped and approximately 476 million CNY in bulk orders received in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.81 CNY based on a 17X PE valuation for 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in precious metals, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in recent quarters. The 2024 annual revenue reached 19.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 790 million CNY, up 28.7% [7]. - The company benefits from a strong resource and industrial chain advantage, with mining rights for key resources and a complete industrial chain covering zinc, lead, and various precious metals, enhancing its market competitiveness [7]. - The dual drivers of zinc smelting and precious metals segments have demonstrated the company's resilience, with the precious metals segment experiencing substantial revenue growth due to rising prices [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 22.44 billion CNY, 23.67 billion CNY, and 25.12 billion CNY, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% from 2024 [2][12]. - **Net Profit**: Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1 billion CNY, 1.1 billion CNY, and 1.24 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 27.2% in 2025 [2][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 0.93 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.15 CNY by 2027 [2][12]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.0% to 4.9% over the same period [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in precious metals, revitalizing its status as a long-standing lead-zinc enterprise [1] - The company reported a revenue of 19.76 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 790 million yuan, up 28.7% year-on-year [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 277 million yuan, a substantial increase of 74.07% year-on-year [7] - The company benefits from resource and industry chain advantages, enhancing its market competitiveness [7] - The zinc smelting business and precious metals segment drive the company's performance resilience, with significant revenue growth in both sectors [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.93, 1.03, and 1.15 yuan respectively, with an upward revision from the previous estimate of 0.87 yuan for 2025 [2][8] - Revenue is expected to grow from 19.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 25.12 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.2% [3] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 10.0% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.9% over the same period [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 15.3 in 2024 to 9.7 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the orderly release of new production capacity and the profitability of its new materials segment [1] - The company’s 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 41.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.8% [7] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 2.38, 2.73, and 3.11 yuan respectively, with a target price of 26.18 yuan based on a PE ratio of 11X for comparable companies [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (million yuan): - 2023A: 39,874 - 2024A: 41,861 - 2025E: 48,946 - 2026E: 53,990 - 2027E: 58,608 - Year-on-year growth (%): - 2023A: 0.8% - 2024A: 5.0% - 2025E: 16.9% - 2026E: 10.3% - 2027E: 8.6% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): - 2023A: 453 - 2024A: 805 - 2025E: 872 - 2026E: 999 - 2027E: 1,136 - Year-on-year growth (%): - 2023A: -6.9% - 2024A: 77.8% - 2025E: 8.2% - 2026E: 14.6% - 2027E: 13.7% [3] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company achieved a cold-rolled stainless steel production volume of 3.3163 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.95%, and total sales of 3.3139 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.52% [7] - New production capacity from various projects is expected to continue to be released, contributing to future growth [7] New Materials Segment - The company has been diversifying into new materials since 2021, with projects in titanium alloys and battery casing materials progressing steadily [7] - The titanium alloy project in Henan has commenced production, and the battery casing project in Zhejiang is expected to begin trial production by the end of 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.63 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 0.47, 0.57, and 0.68 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expanding its new projects and product categories, particularly focusing on the core components of robotics [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog and is accelerating its international expansion, with significant investments in new product development and production capacity [10]. - The establishment of a joint venture, Jiangsu Pacific Intelligent Joint Co., Ltd., aims to enhance the industrialization of core robotic components, leveraging partnerships with established technology firms [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,103 million CNY, with a projected decrease to 2,025 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,416 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 2,862 million CNY in 2026 and 3,336 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 238 million CNY in 2023 to 160 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 240 million CNY in 2025, 293 million CNY in 2026, and 349 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 25.5% in 2023, decreasing to 24.4% in 2024, and stabilizing around 24.5%-24.9% in the following years [4][10]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 0.47, 0.57, and 0.68 CNY respectively, reflecting a more conservative outlook compared to previous estimates [2][10]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to recover significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 49.2% compared to 2024 [4][10]. Market Comparison - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 29 times, indicating a favorable valuation for the company relative to its peers [2][11].

Group 1: Trade Impact and Economic Data - In 2024, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are valued at $119.5 billion, accounting for 29.5% of total exports[1] - In January-February 2025, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached $19.56 billion, representing 30% of national exports, a 16.5% increase year-on-year[2] - The U.S. imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam, higher than most Southeast Asian countries[3] Group 2: Government Response and Market Adjustments - Vietnam has reduced tariffs on 23 categories of imported goods, with some rates lower than U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods[4] - Vietnam is negotiating to purchase over $90 billion worth of U.S. goods, including 250 Boeing aircraft and $6 billion in LNG[5] - The textile and apparel industry in Vietnam has a 40% export ratio to the U.S., facing significant pressure from tariffs[6] Group 3: Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Vietnam has restructured its administrative units from 63 to 34, aiming to improve governance efficiency[7] - The country is shifting towards a FOB production model to share tax burdens with clients and expand into new markets like Russia and Australia[8] - Southeast Asian countries are increasing energy imports to reduce trade surpluses with the U.S., potentially affecting OPEC+ pricing power[9]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 再议供给压力及对资金面影响 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 利率方向回归下行后，幅度取决于资金： | 2025-04-14 | | --- | --- | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core revenue performance is strong, supporting a continued recovery in profit growth. As of the end of 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown year-on-year growth rates of +2.6 percentage points, +0.5 percentage points, and +0.7 percentage points respectively. The increase in net interest income is supported by strong asset deployment and a slowdown in net interest margin contraction [9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, 6.9% in 2026, and 7.9% in 2027, with corresponding BVPS of 14.11, 15.59, and 17.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.70X, 0.63X, and 0.57X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported an operating income of 74,293 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The operating profit was 38,882 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 47.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 28,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,403,362 million yuan in 2023 to 4,940,555 million yuan by 2027, indicating a robust expansion strategy [12] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.89% as of the end of 2024, with a focus on improving asset quality through increased efforts in non-performing loan disposal [9] Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.57 yuan, representing a 20% premium over comparable companies, with a projected PB of 0.89 for 2025 [3][5] - The company’s average P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 5.84 in 2023 to 4.82 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation relative to its earnings growth [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core revenue performance is strong, supporting a continued recovery in profit growth. As of the end of 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown year-on-year growth rates of +2.6 percentage points, +0.5 percentage points, and +0.7 percentage points respectively. The increase in net interest income is supported by strong asset deployment and a slowdown in the narrowing of net interest margins [9] - The company is expected to see a net profit growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, 6.9% in 2026, and 7.9% in 2027, with corresponding BVPS of 14.11, 15.59, and 17.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.70X, 0.63X, and 0.57X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Given the strong credit demand in the region and significant dividend yield advantages, a 20% valuation premium is applied compared to peers, leading to a target price of 12.57 yuan per share [3][5] Financial Information Summary - For 2023A, the company reported operating income of 74,293 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The projected operating income for 2024A is 80,815 million yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 28,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. The forecast for 2024A is 31,843 million yuan, indicating a 10.8% increase [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,403,362 million yuan in 2023A to 4,940,555 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in oil prices due to easing U.S. tariff policies and tightening supply expectations. It emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report also recommends paying attention to domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutions, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report suggests maintaining a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, while also monitoring domestic demand and new material substitution opportunities [13][15]. - Recommended companies include: - Huangma Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, showing signs of recovery from previous macro demand pressures [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [14]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator sector [14]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Benefiting from recovering core product prices and declining coal prices, leading to improved price differentials [14]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of April 16, Brent oil prices increased by 4.9% to $67.96 per barrel. Despite the IEA lowering oil demand growth forecasts, market concerns over U.S. tariff policies eased, contributing to the price increase [15]. - The report monitors 188 chemical products, with the top three price increases being: - Trichloroethylene: Up 16.3% - Butane: Up 8.9% - WTI: Up 7.7% - The top three price decreases were: - Liquid chlorine: Down 62.3% - D4: Down 17.8% - Anthracene oil: Down 12.4% [16][17]. 3. Price Spread Information - The top three price spread increases for the week were: - Carbon black spread: Up 64.5% - Calcium carbide PVC spread: Up 57.8% - Monoammonium phosphate: Up 14.5% - The top three price spread decreases were: - Butyl acrylate spread: Down 50.7% - Hydrogen peroxide spread: Down 44.4% - MTP spread: Down 30.2% [19][20].