股 票 研 究 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.29 ——2024W30 家电行业周报 以旧换新政策力度加大，面板价格环比小幅下滑 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_subIndustry] [Table_Report] 相关报告 家用电器业《线上清洁电器表现较好，铜铝价格 环比下降》2024.07.27 家用电器业《以旧换新措施发布，看好估值修复 机会》2024.07.26 家用电器业《家电持仓比例环比提升，家空出口 延续亮眼表现》2024.07.23 家用电器业《线上扫地机延续较好表现，铜铝价 格环比下降》2024.07.21 家用电器业《线上洗衣机和洗地机表现较好，铜 价环比有所上升》2024.07.15 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------------------------|---------------- ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p2 新股研究-IPO 专题 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------------------------------------|---------|---------|-----------------|------------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------| | 图 3 ： | 2023 年公司毛利率略有下滑 | | | 图 4 ： \n12% | 2021~2023 | 年公司研发费用率持续提升 | 新股研究 -IPO 专题 | | 50% 45% | 42.98% | 42.25% | | | | | | | | | | 39.78% | 10% | 8.82% | | | | 40% | | | | | | 7.81% | 8.39% | | 35% | ...

[Table_Industry] 军工 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 [Table_Report] 相关报告 军工《低空经济再迎新利好，看好长期成长 空间》 2024.07.19 军工《产业链重大政策出台，国产民机步入 快车道》 2024.07.19 军工《我国与多国展开联训，美航母中期维 护严重延误》 2024.07.17 军工《神十八航天员第二次出舱，菲律宾将 撤走美军中导》 2024.07.08 军工《沙特国防大臣访华，美方军机南海盘 旋军工行业周报》 2024.07.02 2024.07.22 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 地方出台产业政策，低空、民航迎来利好 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|----------------------------| | 彭磊](分析师) | 周明頔(研究助理) | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | S08805181 ...

中俄空军联合巡航，乌外长近期访华 [Table_Industry] 军工 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.29 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------|----------------------------| | | 彭磊(分析师) | 周明頔(研究助理) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880123070156 | 本报告导读： 军工板块上涨，美公布核弹头数量； 中俄空军联合巡航，乌外长近期访华；大国博 弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 军工板块上涨，美公布核弹头数量。1) 上周(07.22-07.26)上证综指 下跌 3.07%，创业板指数下跌 3.82%，国防军工指数上涨 2.19%，跑 赢 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------|----------------------------| | | 彭磊(分析师) | 周明頔(研究助理) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880123070156 | 本报告导读： 军工板块上涨，美公布核弹头数量； 中俄空军联合巡航，乌外长近期访华；大国博 弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 军工板块上涨，美公布核弹头数量。1) 上周(07.22-07.26)上证综指 下跌 3.07%，创业板指数下跌 3.82%，国防军工指数上涨 2.19%，跑 赢大盘 5.25 个百分点，排名第 1/29。2) 台军实兵"演戏"状 ...

供需总体紧平衡，光伏装机维持高增 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——公用事业行业周报（2024.7.22-2024.7.26） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------| | | 于鸿光(分析师) | 孙辉贤(研究助理) | 汪玥(研究助理) | | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | | | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.com | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com | wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522020001 | S0880122070052 | S0880123070143 | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 本报告导读： 中电联预计用电增速维持高位，迎峰 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 猪料弱存栏低，看好 Q3 价格 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [table_Authors] 王艳君(分析师) 021-38674633 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 本报告导读： 生猪：猪价高位稳定，继续看好三季度生猪价格。当前板块估值仍低，继续推荐养 殖板块。饲料：上半年饲料产量仍弱，关注养殖利润改善后的饲料后周期困境反转。 投资要点： [生猪：价格高位稳定 Table_Summary] ，看好三季度价格高位持续。 猪价高位稳定。7 月 19 日~25 日生猪均价 19.33 元/Kg，环比上涨 0.22 元/kg。出栏体重整体稳定，根据涌益咨询数据，出栏体重 125.03kg，环比持平。 需求缩量而价格仍稳定。7 月价格高位后，屠宰量和需求端受到一 定程度抑制，另一方面高温也抑制需求增长。我们还关注到 6 月-7 月餐饮行业同比表现较弱，需求端整体有制约影响。而价格的表现 仍坚挺，我们认为生猪供给量较低，继续看 ...

设备更新政策升级，资金支持来源明确 [Table_Industry] 环保 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|--------------------|-----------------------| | 徐强(分析师) | 邵潇(分析师) | 于歆(分析师) | | 010-83939805 | 0755-23976520 | 021-38038345 | | xuqiang@gtjas.com | shaoxiao@gtjas.com | yuxin024466@gtjas.com | | S0880517040002 | S0880517070004 | S0880523050005 | 本报告导读： 上周 CEA 周成交 110 万吨，周成交均价 91 元/吨。地方碳配额周成交 67 万吨，周 成交均价 46 元/吨。全国 CCER 周成交 2.33 万吨。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 环保板块上周涨跌幅。1）上周环保 ...

以旧换新政策加码，结构性行情延续 [Table_Industry] 汽车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 ——汽车行业周报（2024.7.22-2024.7.26） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|------------------------|----------------------------| | | 吴晓飞(分析师) | 管正月(分析师) | 周逸洲(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976003 | 021-38032026 | 010-83939811 | | | wuxiaofei@gtjas.com | guanzhengyue@gtjas.com | zhouyizhou028696@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517080003 | S0880521030003 | S0880123070150 | 本报告导读： 发改委印发文件提升乘用车报废补贴，进一步明确商用车补贴细则，预计板块 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, particularly for stable sales targets such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, as well as for oversold targets like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiansi Yuan, and Laobai Ganjiu [3][13]. Core Insights - The current downturn in the liquor industry is characterized by a relatively mild adjustment in demand and expectations compared to the previous cycle, but the adjustment period is longer. The report highlights that the previous downturn from 2012 to 2016 was triggered by policy changes and food safety incidents, leading to a significant decline in demand [3][6][7]. - The report notes that high-end and regional liquor brands have shown quicker recovery and greater elasticity after the downturn, with Guizhou Moutai being the only company to maintain continuous positive growth in revenue and net profit during the adjustment period [3][6][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report outlines that the liquor industry experienced a brief downturn due to a sharp drop in demand, with a significant differentiation in performance among companies. The adjustment period lasted approximately 18 months, during which the industry index underperformed the broader market [6][15]. - It emphasizes that the current cycle's adjustment is less severe but prolonged, with the industry showing signs of concentration, leading to smaller fluctuations in company performance [7][13]. 2. Demand Decline Triggering the 2012-2016 Liquor Downturn - The report details that the liquor industry entered a downturn in 2012 due to a rapid decline in demand, influenced by policy changes and food safety incidents. The industry's growth peaked in 2011, but subsequent events led to a significant shift in market dynamics [15][16]. - It highlights that the adjustment period was marked by a substantial drop in stock prices, with the industry index falling by 59% from its peak [18][21]. 3. Faster Recovery of High-End and Regional Liquors - The report indicates that during the adjustment phase, stock prices of high-end and regional liquors rebounded more quickly than those of mid-range brands, with Guizhou Moutai and other regional brands showing resilience [6][21]. - It also notes that the stock price performance often led the fundamental performance by about three quarters, indicating a disconnect between market sentiment and actual company performance during the downturn [21][22].