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2024年5月社零数据点评:618大促驱动社零回暖,金银珠宝短期承压
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 11:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wholesale and retail industry is "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in social retail sales driven by promotional events such as the "May Day" holiday and the "618" shopping festival, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in May 2024, up from 2.3% in April [3]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in the competitive landscape for vertical O2O companies, with a recommendation for companies like TuHao-W, and notes the sustained high demand for affordable overseas retail [3]. - The report also points out that the gold and jewelry sector is under short-term pressure due to high gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on vertical O2O and overseas expansion, recommending companies such as TuHao-W, Miniso, and others [3]. - The education sector shows signs of recovery, with recommendations for undervalued stocks like Zhuoyue Education and others [3]. - The tourism sector is highlighted as a growing area, with recommendations for companies like Tongcheng Travel and Ctrip Group [3]. Social Retail Data - In May 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4 percentage points [3]. - Excluding automobiles, the year-on-year growth was 4.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [3]. - The report notes that the growth in retail sales was primarily driven by the "May Day" holiday effect and the "618" online shopping festival [3]. Category Performance - Cosmetics saw a significant year-on-year increase of 18.7%, while gold and silver jewelry experienced a decline of 11.0% [3]. - The report indicates that service sector growth outpaced that of goods, with restaurant income growing by 5.0% year-on-year [3]. - Online retail sales of physical goods showed a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with e-commerce penetration reaching 24.7% of total retail sales in May [3].
IPO专题:新股精要—国内电动两轮车电驱动系统领先制造商安乃达
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 10:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious buy rating for the company, Ananda, based on its market position and growth potential in the electric two-wheeler drive system sector [55]. Core Insights - Ananda is a leading manufacturer of electric drive systems for electric two-wheelers in China, with significant market share and strong ties to major clients like Yadi and Tailg [11][9]. - The company achieved revenues of 1.427 billion yuan and a net profit of 148 million yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.98% for revenue and 6.92% for net profit from 2021 to 2023 [56]. - The IPO involves issuing 29 million shares, representing 25% of the total post-IPO share capital, with the raised funds aimed at enhancing profitability and market share [46][23]. Business Analysis - Ananda's product offerings include various motors, controllers, sensors, and instruments for electric two-wheelers, with a focus on direct drive hub motors, mid-mounted motors, and reduction hub motors [9][32]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of around 20% from 2021 to 2023, although the gross margin for its core product, the direct drive hub motor, remains below 10% [15][32]. - The direct drive hub motor sales have shown steady growth, driven by increasing demand in the domestic electric two-wheeler market, while mid-mounted and reduction hub motors are benefiting from the expanding European e-bike market [32][11]. Industry Development and Competitive Landscape - The domestic electric two-wheeler market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.93% from 2020 to 2022, driven by new regulations and increasing demand from logistics and delivery services [41][17]. - The market for electric assist bicycles in Europe is also growing, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.36% from 2011 to 2022, indicating a robust demand for Ananda's products in international markets [19][17]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a concentration of leading manufacturers, with Ananda competing against established players like Bosch and Shimano in the international market [42][45]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report notes that the average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in the electric machinery manufacturing sector is 16.99, with Ananda's projected PE ratios for 2023, 2024, and 2025 being 39.95, 29.20, and 20.48, respectively [26][56].
地产5月观察:风险底部探明,资产荒局面改善
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 09:01
国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 房地产 究 2 024.06.17 [评Tab级le_I:nve st] 增持 风险底部探明,资产荒局面改善 上 次评级: 增持 ——地产 5 月观察 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 [table_A ut谢ho皓rs]宇 (分析师) 白淑媛(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 010-83939826 021-38675923 010-83939815 业 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com [相Ta关ble报_R告ep ort] 更 登 记编号 S0880518010002 S0880518010004 S0880123070129 房地产《信用新格局,缓解资产荒》 新 本报告导读: 2024.06.17 投资端走弱、销售端回暖,符合当前消化存量、控制增量的宏观政策,行业风险进一 房地产《产能出清,重塑金融链》 步化解, ...
2024W24家电行业周报:618大促扫地机表现亮眼,5月彩电代工出货增长
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:31
国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 究 2 024.06.16 [评Tab级le_I:nve st] 增持 上 次评级: 增持 618 大促扫地机表现亮眼,5 月彩电代工出货增长 ——2024W24 家电行业周报 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 [table_A ut蔡ho雯rs]娟 (分析师) 田平川(研究助理) 谢丛睿(分析师) 021-38031654 021-38676666 021-38038437 业 caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com tianpingchuan026740@gtjas.com xiecongrui@gtjas.com [相Ta关ble报_R告ep ort] 周 登 记编号 S0880521050002 S0880122070069 S0880523090004 家用电器业《618大促清洁电器延续亮眼表 报 现,家电出口较好》 本报告导读: 2024.06.11 618大促扫地机表现亮眼, ...
智能汽车产业研究系列(七):智能汽车:五大维度打造日益坚固的生态护城河
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:01
智能汽车:五大维度打造 日益坚固的生态护城河 ——智能汽车产业研究系列(七) 请参阅附注免责声明 1 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 3000 7000 6391.05 2505.6 2500 6000 1875.2 2000 5000 4230.24 1377.1 1500 1235 4000 1009.1 988 1000 649.5 567.4 760 3000 2800 312.5 298.7 1853.32 500 111.1 2000 0 1000 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E ...
食品饮料中期策略报告:寻找韧性与成长
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:01
寻找韧性与成长 ——食品饮料中期策略报告 • • • • 请参阅附注免责声明 1 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 • ...
电子行业2024年中期策略研讨会:大算力时代必经之路,先进封装正崛起
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:01
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow from $44.3 billion in 2022 to $78.6 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 10.6% [4][28] - The 2.5D/3D packaging segment is expected to see significant growth, with a market size increasing from $9.2 billion in 2022 to $25.8 billion by 2028, achieving a CAGR of 18.7% [4][32] - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, is anticipated to catalyze advancements in the semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced storage and packaging [8][52] Summary by Sections AI Wave and Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging technologies are essential for achieving high density, high integration, and low power consumption in integrated circuits, helping to overcome limitations posed by the "storage wall," "area wall," "power wall," and "function wall" [16][24] Semiconductor Recovery and Packaging - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with packaging and testing companies expected to benefit from increased demand driven by consumer electronics and AI applications [6][49] - The packaging sector is projected to experience a volume and price increase, with some companies already initiating price hikes due to rising demand and material costs [6][49] National Fund Phase III and Focus Areas - The National Fund Phase III aims to support advanced manufacturing and packaging, with a focus on overcoming sanctions in advanced wafer manufacturing and addressing high-performance computing needs [8][52] Opportunities in Advanced Packaging Supply Chain - The advanced packaging industry is undergoing significant changes, with a focus on differentiated segments such as 2.5D/3D packaging and related materials and equipment [10][56] - Key companies in the advanced packaging space include Tongfu Microelectronics, Changdian Technology, and Huada Semiconductor, which are actively expanding their capabilities [10][71]
建材行业2024年年中策略报告:从高杠杆时代重回价值
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:01
从高杠杆时代重回价值 ——建材行业2024年年中策略报告 请参阅附注免责声明 1 2023 —— + 2024 2016-2024 2024 Q1 3 Q2 2024 4 5 2024 2024 3 5-6 Q2 Q1 + + + 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ...
石化行业2024年中期策略研讨会:软着陆降息预期推动大宗商品上涨
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:01
软着陆降息预期推动大宗商品上涨 请参阅附注免责声明 1 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 2022 1. OPEC 供应层面 2. 3. 4. SPR 2022年 1. 需求层面 2. 金融及地 1. 缘层面 2. 1. OPEC OPEC 供应层面 2. 3. 4. SPR 115-120 90 2024年 1. 需求层面 2. ( ) 1. 金融及地 2. 缘层面 3. 4. ...
电力专题系列报告(十五):寻找长久期利率债的权益映射
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-06-18 08:01
国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 究 2 024.06.16 [评Tab级le_I:nve st] 增持 寻找长久期利率债的权益映射 上 次评级: 增持 电力专题系列报告(十五) [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 [table_A ut于ho鸿rs]光 (分析师) 孙辉贤(研究助理) 汪玥(研究助理) 021-38031730 021-38038670 021-38031030 业 yuhongguang025906@gtjas.com sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com wangyue028681@gtjas.com [相Ta关ble报_R告ep ort] 更 登 记编号 S0880522020001 S0880122070052 S0880123070143 公用事业《电力设备,乘风破浪》 新 本报告导读: 2024.06.15 公用事业《绿电绿证交易扩容,江苏陆风有 要求回报率下行时代,电力资产“永续经营”属性尚未 ...