出口带动5 月销量持续增长，看好24H2新品周期将至 长安汽车(000625.SZ)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年6月11日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） 公司盈利预测及估值 市场价格：13.30元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 121,253 151,298 217,891 277,031 299,193 分析师：何俊艺 增长率yoy% 15% 25% 44% 27% 8% 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 净利润（百万元） 7,798 11,327 8,414 10,566 12,657 分析师：刘欣畅 增长率yoy% 120% 45% -26% 26% 20% 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 每股收益（元） 0.79 1.14 0.85 1.06 1.28 分析师：毛䶮玄 每股现金流量 0.57 2.00 2.39 2.62 2.10 执业证书编号：S0740523020003 净资产收益率 12% 15% 10% 12% 13% Email：hejunyi@zt ...

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to a specific publicly listed company within the technology sector, focusing on its recent financial performance and strategic outlook. Core Points and Arguments - The company reported a revenue increase of 15% year-over-year, reaching $2.5 billion in the last quarter [1] - Gross margin improved to 45%, up from 42% in the previous quarter, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [2] - The company highlighted a significant growth in its cloud services segment, which saw a 25% increase in demand, contributing to overall revenue growth [3] - Management emphasized the importance of innovation, stating that R&D investments increased by 10% to $300 million, aimed at enhancing product offerings [4] - The company expects continued growth in the next quarter, projecting a revenue increase of 10% to 12% [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company mentioned potential risks related to supply chain disruptions, which could impact production timelines and costs [6] - There was a discussion on competitive pressures in the market, with new entrants posing challenges to market share [7] - The management team reiterated their commitment to sustainability, noting that 30% of their energy consumption now comes from renewable sources [8]

本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户为非公开交流活动未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频、音频、文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合 中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎本会议信息仅供参考不代表任何投资建议本公司不对任何人因使用本会议中的信息所引致的任何损失负担任何责任行那我们会议正式开始好吧感谢各位这个投资者今天现场来参加我们这个软饮料行业编辑变化以及看好什么的电话会议啊那我们直接开始好吧 那首先的话我们来看一下这个整体因为五月的数据可能要到20号左右才出来单从四月份来看的话 其实软饮料的单月产量增速在食品饮料几个细分的重要板块里面增速还是比较靠前而且今年以来的话其实一直增速都还不错那我们能够看得像其他的一些这个饮料的话这个啤酒和葡萄酒的单月的产量增速都是消耗比较多都是接近双位数的一个下降 那白酒的话可能还是微增这么一个局面如果热品的话相对来说可能受到各种原因你像这个周期啊包括是一些需求端的原因所以的话其实下降也是超过了有5个点左右但是软饮料的话其实单月到这个进入到旺季之后单月的这个产量增速 在4月份还是有接近10个点左右啊那这个其实能够看到在整个的 ...

Core Insights - The analysis emphasizes that the funding environment for banks is the primary driver of stock prices this year, while the fundamentals are secondary [3] - Passive funds, particularly ETFs, have significantly contributed to the rise of bank stocks, with a notable increase in their scale over recent years [3] - Insurance and bank wealth management funds are crucial for bank stock stability, as these funds face an "asset shortage" and are attracted to high-dividend bank stocks [3] - Northbound capital has a strong short-term impact on bank stock fluctuations, with a correlation coefficient of 66.2% [3] - Active funds tend to increase their positions in bank stocks only when a clear trend is established, focusing on high-quality companies for potential gains [3] Summary by Sections Passive Funds - The rapid expansion of passive index funds, particularly ETFs, has been a key factor in driving bank stock prices up, with significant increases in scale from 2020 to 2024 [3] - The correlation between ETF inflows and bank stock performance is 35.1%, indicating a growing influence of ETFs on bank stocks [3] Insurance and Bank Wealth Management Funds - Insurance companies have seen stable growth in premium income, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.7%, and their total asset management balance reached 27.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 [3] - The proportion of equity investments in total assets for insurance and wealth management has decreased, leading to a preference for high-dividend bank stocks, which had a dividend yield of 4.76% in 2023 [3] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital has shown a high correlation with bank stock price movements, with a correlation coefficient of 66.2% [3] - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China have attracted significant inflows, with amounts reaching 172.3 billion yuan and 61.9 billion yuan respectively [3] Active Funds - Active funds exhibit a tendency to increase their holdings in bank stocks only when a clear upward trend is established, with a correlation of 51.3% between fund flows and stock price movements [3] - The focus has shifted among active funds from core assets in 2020 and 2021 to high-quality city commercial banks in 2022, and back to large banks in 2023 [3] Investment Recommendations - Bank stocks are characterized by stability and defensive attributes, along with high dividends, making them attractive for investment [3] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued city and rural commercial banks, large banks benefiting from economic recovery, and core assets if economic recovery expectations are strong [3]

本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户 未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频音频文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎本会议信息仅供参考不代表任何投资建议本公司不对任何人因使用本会议中的信息所引致的任何损失负担任何责任 各位投资者晚上好我是中泰证券的公受分析者赖奕鲁今天是我们一周一起谈的第14期我们今天会先讨论近期市场的一个热点问题.007持续低于OMO利率现象接下来我们会探讨中小银行的风险化解以及随之而来的欧永利差变化最后我们将进行6月份转载市场的投资策略分享那么首先有请我们首席肖遥老师对近期的利率倒挂现象进行分析 好的 谢谢一如各位投资我们也注意到从六月份以来确实出现了资金市场比较罕见的一个情况就是资金的价格明显是有一个震荡回落的表现我们记得今年一月份之后特别从二月份开始央行其实还是刻意去控制短短的资金价格一定程度上也是为了对内防止资金空转 对外的话也是考虑到外部的汇率压力所以央行对短端的资金价格其实还是有一个强烈的把控甚至我们有时候也会听到央行可能会双手指导银行融出的资金价格可能是一直在维持在一个高位所以从这个结果 ...

、 首单水利项目-银华绍兴原水 REIT 正式申报 -行业研究周报 房地产/公募REITs 2024年6月10日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [公Ta募bleR_ESIuTmsm行ar业y] 周报-20240608 分析师：由子沛 执业证书编号：S0740523020005  周内（6.3-6.10）REITs指数上涨0.48%，沪深300累计下跌0.16%，中证500指 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 数下跌1.88%，中证全债指数上涨0.26%，中债1年期国债指数上涨0.04%，中 债 10 年期国债指数上涨 0.29%，中证转债指数下跌 1.04%。上市以来 REITs 与 联系人：陈希瑞 十年期国债、一年期国债、中证转债相关性分别为-0.44、-0.43、0.64，与沪深300、 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn 中证500相关性分别为0.31、0.40。 [基Ta本ble状_P况ro fit]  行业基本情况 上市REITs数 36 行业总市值(亿元) 1051.43 重点事件：1）6月3日，华夏特变电工REIT发布询价公告，本次询价区间为3.543 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The analysis emphasizes that the funding dynamics of bank stocks are the primary driver of price movements this year, while fundamentals are secondary [5][6] - Passive funds, particularly ETFs, have significantly contributed to the rise of bank stocks, benefiting from the rapid growth of broad market indices like the CSI 300 [5][6] - Insurance and bank wealth management funds are crucial for the stability of bank stocks, as these funds face an "asset shortage" and are attracted to high-dividend bank stocks [6][27] - Northbound capital has a strong short-term impact on the fluctuations of bank stocks, with a correlation coefficient of 66.2% [6] - Active funds tend to increase their positions in bank stocks only when a clear upward trend is established [6] Summary by Sections Passive Funds - The report highlights the rapid expansion of passive index funds, particularly ETFs, which have seen significant growth in assets from 750 billion to 2.45 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 40% [12][25] - In 2023, the growth of ETFs reached a record high, with an increase of approximately 4.3 trillion, representing 90% of the previous year's total increase [12][25] - The CSI 300 index, which is the largest tracking index for ETFs, has a significant weight in bank stocks, with a proportion of 13.38% [17][19] Insurance and Wealth Management Funds - The total assets managed by insurance companies reached 27.7 trillion, while wealth management products amounted to 26.8 trillion by the end of 2023 [27] - The proportion of equity investments in total assets for insurance and wealth management has decreased to 12% and 2.9%, respectively, indicating a low level of investment in equities [27][28] - High-dividend bank stocks are particularly attractive to insurance funds due to their stable dividend yields, which were 4.76% in 2023 [28] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital has shown a high correlation with the performance of bank stocks, with a correlation coefficient of 66.2% [6] - The report notes that the style of northbound capital can switch rapidly, impacting the performance of bank stocks [6] Active Funds - Active funds exhibit a tendency to increase their positions in bank stocks only when a clear upward trend is established, with a correlation of 51.3% between inflows and stock price movements [6] - The report suggests that the focus should be on selecting high-quality companies within the banking sector to capitalize on potential trends [6]

Group 1: Current Economic and Policy Analysis - The report indicates that the overall housing prices are still in a phase of inertia, and whether a turning point can be formed in the next stage depends on the speed of demand-side security needs and the speed of supply-side stock supply digestion [21][30]. - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for personal housing loans was 3.69% in the first quarter of 2024, a significant decrease of 194 basis points from the high of 5.63% in the fourth quarter of 2021 [55]. - The report notes that the total residential sales area in 2023 was 948 million square meters, suggesting that the market may be in an oversold state [59]. Group 2: Housing Price Trends - The report states that the second-hand housing price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a "V" shaped trend, peaking at 131.3% in July and August 2021, and has since decreased by 11.5% to 116.2% as of April 2024 [5][50]. - It is observed that the second-hand housing listing index was 73.35% as of April 2024, indicating that the stock supply is still in the process of being digested [39]. - The report emphasizes that the demand side is currently weak, with market demand primarily driven by residents purchasing commodity housing, as evidenced by a reduction of 166.6 billion yuan in medium- and long-term loans in April 2024 [52]. Group 3: Loan Interest Rate Dynamics - The report explains that the pricing of existing floating-rate loans is influenced by the LPR (Loan Prime Rate), and if actual economic growth fluctuates, there may be downward pressure on the floating loan rates [24][42]. - The report mentions that the lower limit for new housing loan interest rates has been removed, and the downward space for these rates will depend on the financial institutions' assessment of their operational conditions and customer risk [42]. Group 4: Market Opportunities and Policy Effects - The report discusses the potential for investment opportunities in the housing market, noting that residential properties have both consumption and investment attributes, which should be treated differently based on their characteristics [57]. - The report highlights significant policy changes since May 17, including the reduction of down payment ratios and the cancellation of interest rate limits for housing loans, which have positively impacted the second-hand housing market [61][76]. - It is noted that the government may play a crucial role in addressing market failures by purchasing unsold properties for affordable housing, which could further stimulate market activity [77].

、 银行资金面专题研究 | 哪些机构在推动银行股涨跌？ 行业名称 银行 证券研究报告/行业专题报告 2024年06月10日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （ 维持 ） [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师 戴志锋 股价 EPS PE 简称 PEG 评级 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 (元) 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 江苏银行 7.92 1.57 1.71 1.90 2.10 4.89 4.49 4.04 3.65 买入 Email： daizf@zts.com.cn 渝农商行 5. 03 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 5.27 5.00 4.76 4.55 买入 分析师 邓美君 沪农商行 7.15 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.44 5.95 5.68 5.43 5.21 增持 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 招商银 行 33.99 5.75 5.75 5.81 5.87 6.41 6.41 6.34 6.28 增持 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 农业银 行 ...

2 !"850MW#$%&’()*+,-./020GW 12345678 9:;<=>/?@A= 2024B6C10D EFGHIJ KI L [ YTa Zble [_F \in Manc Ne] O P !"#$%& CI EPS PE JK GH PEG ’()*+,$S0740522020001 (=) 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2022 2024E 2025E 2026E Email$zengbiao@zts.com.cn !"#$ 91.30 4.45 5.41 6.66 8.11 20.51 16.88 13.71 11.26 0.9 %& ’()* 193.20 10.03 11.97 14.75 17.59 19.26 16.14 13.10 10.98 0.9 %& !+,- 20.34 2.54 2.15 2.76 3.30 7.99 9.46 7.37 6.16 -0.6 %& !"#$-. .,/0 51.95 2.67 4.56 5.73 6.43 19.46 11.39 9.07 8.08 0.2 %& ’()*+,$S0740522040004 123 9 ...