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高频数据观察:汽车消费热度回升
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 09:30
◼ 需求:房地销售涨跌互现。商品房销售面积全面下行:截至 6 月 7 日,30 大中城市商 品房成交面积周环比下降 26.15%,其中,一、二、三线城市商品房成交面积周环比分 别下降 24.58%、31.48%、12.71%。土地成交面积全面上行:截至 6 月 7 日,100 大 中城市成交土地面积 1535.85 万平方米,周环比上升 34.94%,其中一、二、三线城市 土地成交面积周环比分别上升 21.77%、35.73%、35.32%。成交土地溢价率全面上 行:截至 6 月 2 日,100 大中城市成交土地溢价率约为 3.40%,较上周上升 3.00 个百 分点,其中一、二、三线城市分别上升 4.67、2.98、1.66 个百分点。 化纤生产开工率全面上行:截至 6 月 6 日 PX 开工率周环比上升 5.68 个百分 点,PTA 开工率周环比上升 4.76 个百分点,涤纶长丝(江浙地区)开工率 周环比上升 0.02 个百分点。 土地成交面积全面上行:截至 6 月 7 日,100 大中城市成交土地面积 1535.85 万平方米,周环比上升 34.94%,其中一、二、三线城市土地成交 面积周环比分别上升 ...
金融“五篇大文章”系列一:中国科技金融发展历史、现状与未来展望
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 09:30
Development Stages of China's Tech Finance - The development of China's tech finance is divided into four stages: embryonic stage (1980-1984), initial stage (1985-2005), rapid development stage (2006-2015), and integrated development stage (2016-present)[3] - In the embryonic stage, policy-driven tech loans were piloted, with local governments leading the way[27] - The initial stage saw the emergence of venture capital and the establishment of the first government-guided venture capital fund in 2002[31] - The rapid development stage focused on building a comprehensive tech finance system, with policies like the "National Medium and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020)"[32] - The integrated development stage emphasized regional and innovative approaches, with multiple stakeholders including government, financial institutions, and platform companies[36] Current Status of China's Tech Finance - Indirect financing through banking institutions plays a dominant role, with significant investments in financial technology by major banks[12] - The balance of loans to tech-based SMEs reached 2.7 trillion yuan in Q1 2024, with a loan approval rate of 47.9%[70] - China has established 2,086 government-guided funds with a target scale of 12.19 trillion yuan by 2023[13] - The issuance of tech innovation bonds (科创债) surged to 364.54 billion yuan in 2023, up from 16.66 billion yuan in 2021[74] - The proportion of specialized and sophisticated SMEs (专精特新) among listed companies has increased, with 944 such companies listed on A-shares by March 2024[94] International Comparisons - The U.S. tech finance model is market-driven, with over 30% of IPOs being tech companies since the 1980s[5] - Germany's tech finance system is government-led, with KfW playing a key role in supporting SMEs through low-interest loans and venture capital funds[118] - Japan has a well-established credit guarantee system, with the earliest SME credit guarantee system globally, effectively alleviating financing difficulties for tech SMEs[7] Future Trends and Recommendations - The Beijing Stock Exchange is expected to list over 100 companies in 2024, with more than half being specialized and sophisticated SMEs[156] - Intellectual property securitization is expected to grow, with an estimated 50 products and over 4 billion yuan in issuance in 2024[157] - Regional tech finance reforms are being promoted, with multiple cities implementing pilot programs to integrate tech and finance[77] - The government aims to maintain a loan growth rate of over 20% for specialized and sophisticated SMEs in 2024, with a loan approval rate approaching 50%[44]
5月进出口数据点评:出口继续回升,内需有待稳固
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 09:30
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房地产行业周报:上海取消土拍限价,国常会提出继续研究去库存稳市场措施
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 08:02
、 上海取消土拍限价,国常会提出继续研究去库存稳市场措施 -行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业研究周报 2024年6月8日 [T评ab级le_:M增ain持] (维持) [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师:由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号:S0740523020005 (元) 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 保利发展 10.2 1.0 1.13 1.21 1.27 10.1 9.0 8.4 8.0 买入 Email:youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 9.7 0.7 0.9 1.07 1.15 14.8 10.7 9.0 8.4 买入 招商积余 11.4 0.7 0.85 1.02 1.19 16.4 13.4 11.2 9.6 买入 分析师:李垚 华润万象生活 27.2 1.3 1.59 1.9 2.23 19.3 15.6 13.0 11.1 买入 保利物业 32.6 2.5 2.95 3.42 3.93 11.8 10.0 8.7 7.5 买入 执业证书编号:S0740520110003 ...
交运行业周报:学子归巢,暑运将启
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 07:30
1 、 学子归巢,暑运将启 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年06月08日 交运 评级:增持(维持) ≈[投T a资ble要_S点um mary] 分析师:杜冲 n 投资建议:一、航空机场:学子归巢,暑运将启。6 月航空煤油出厂价(含税)报于 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 6204 元/吨,较上月下跌 446 元/吨,月环比下降 6.71%。我们认为航空煤油的下跌将 电话: 有效降低航司的燃油成本,同时,自2024年6月5日起,燃油附加费同步下调,旅客 Email:duchong@zts.com.cn 出行成本同步降低,出行需求有望进一步回暖。随着端午假期后中高考的陆续结束, 民航将迎来一年中最旺的暑运,板块或迎来新一轮催化。中长期看,我们认为行业恢 联系人:李鼎莹 复趋势向好,随着国际航线的持续恢复,全行业供需格局有望持续改善,各航司飞机 电话: 利用率有望持续上行,叠加票价市场化改革利好,航空公司的业绩表现有望持续改 Email:lidy@zts.com.cn 善,建议关注低位布局机会。此外,机场将受益于航空需求的复苏,航空收入和非航 收入都将明显改善。重点推荐华夏航空、春秋航空、吉祥航空 ...
房地产行业研究周报:上海取消土拍限价,国常会提出继续研究去库存稳市场措施
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 07:30
、 上海取消土拍限价,国常会提出继续研究去库存稳市场措施 -行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业研究周报 2024年6月8日 [T评ab级le_:M增ain持] (维持) [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师:由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号:S0740523020005 (元) 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 保利发展 10.2 1.0 1.13 1.21 1.27 10.1 9.0 8.4 8.0 买入 Email:youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 9.7 0.7 0.9 1.07 1.15 14.8 10.7 9.0 8.4 买入 招商积余 11.4 0.7 0.85 1.02 1.19 16.4 13.4 11.2 9.6 买入 分析师:李垚 华润万象生活 27.2 1.3 1.59 1.9 2.23 19.3 15.6 13.0 11.1 买入 保利物业 32.6 2.5 2.95 3.42 3.93 11.8 10.0 8.7 7.5 买入 执业证书编号:S0740520110003 ...
煤炭行业周报:节能降碳下钢铁成本刚性望增强,高温来袭日耗抬升提振动煤价格
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-10 07:30
、 节能降碳下钢铁成本刚性望增强,高温来袭日耗抬升提振动煤价格 证券研究报告/行业周报 煤炭 2024年6月8日 评级:增持( 维持 ) [重Ta点bl公e_司Fi基na本nc状e]况 分析师:杜冲 股价 EPS PE 简称 PB 评级 分执析业师证:书杜编冲号: S0740522040001 (元) 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 山西焦煤 11.10 1.19 1.E2 1 1.31 1.39 9.3 9.2 8.5 8.0 1.62 买入 电话: 潞安环能 22.23 2.65 2.54 2.75 2.93 8.4 8.8 8.1 7.6 1.33 买入 Email:duchong@zts.com.cn 平煤股份 12.69 1.71 1.90 2.04 2.19 7.4 6.7 6.2 5.8 1.37 买入 联系人:鲁昊 兖矿能源 23.87 2.71 2.92 3.39 3.81 8.8 8.2 7.0 6.3 2.99 买入 中国神华 44.15 3.00 3.20 3.28 3.37 14.7 13.8 13.5 13.1 2.06 ...
我国新能源消纳情况解读电改系列
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-07 09:13
Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the central policy services industry [1] Core Points and Arguments - The conference call serves to discuss the implications and strategies related to the central policy services [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - No additional significant details were provided in the content [1]
博盈特焊:防腐防磨堆焊龙头,出海+应用拓展推动公司快速发展
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-07 02:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [22][16][116]. Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, with a strong market position and a focus on expanding into overseas markets and new application areas such as coal-fired power generation [24][10][49]. - The anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand in waste incineration and coal-fired power sectors, with projected revenues of 6.81 billion, 8.50 billion, and 10.80 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [16][149]. - The company has a solid track record of revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.5% from 2018 to 2023 [24][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, with key products including cladding water-cooled walls, cladding headers, and cladding superheaters [56][24]. - It has established a strong customer base, including major domestic and international clients such as General Electric and Shanghai Electric [31][107]. Market Dynamics - The anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding market is characterized by high entry barriers due to stringent technical requirements and long evaluation periods for new suppliers [2][14]. - The company has a competitive advantage due to its technological expertise and established reputation in the industry, having supplied cladding equipment to 23.17% of newly operational waste incineration power plants in China from 2018 to 2021 [25][100]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 210 million yuan in 2018 to 604 million yuan in 2023, with net profit growing from 61 million yuan to 131 million yuan during the same period [24][38]. - The report forecasts net profits of 1.52 billion, 2.00 billion, and 2.53 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.8, 16.5, and 13.1 [16][115]. Growth Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding in the waste incineration and coal-fired power generation sectors, with an estimated market space of 75 to 100 billion yuan for cladding equipment in coal-fired power plants [26][148]. - The report highlights the potential for further market penetration in waste incineration, with expected cladding penetration rates reaching 70%-80% by 2035 [86][109]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, driven by both domestic market stabilization and rapid expansion into international markets [24][149]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust competitive position and the anticipated improvement in financial performance, making it an attractive investment opportunity [16][116].
中泰证券晨会聚焦
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-06-07 00:00
证券研究报告 2024 年 6 月 06 日 今日重点>> 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 今日重点 ►【计算机】闻学臣:AI 大变局下应用端的确定性机会 闻学臣|中泰计算机首席 S0740519090007 ChatGPT 的横空出世开启了人工智能革命的新浪潮,被形容为"iPhone 时刻",一时间产业圈和 投资圈都热闹非凡,从 GPT 到 GPTs,从 NLP 到多模态,从 AI 大模型到 AI agent,从中心端的 GPU、云计算到终端的 AIPC、AI 手机、AI pin ,技术、产品、模式都在快速创新迭代,A 股也是 算力、模型、应用快速轮番演绎,经历了最初的预期高涨与现在的理性回归,实际上,我们现在正 处于人工智能技术与产业大变革的早期阶段,未来云边端的计算体系、硬件载体,基础软件、应用 软件体系以及客户端的入口都将被重塑和再定义。 站在投资视角看,一方面我们需要寻找时代变革的新物种、新龙头,类似于互联网时代的谷歌、移 动互联网时代的苹果、互联网与云计算时代的亚马逊,但这类机会需要边走边看,最终花落谁家还 存在诸多变数;另一方面我们也需要寻找能够穿越技术创新周期,不断从中获益的不变玩家。 通过历史的复 ...