Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of U.S.-China relations, with President Trump planning a visit to China in April, which is seen as beneficial for both nations [2] - The People's Bank of China is actively engaging with global financial leaders, indicating a focus on macroeconomic policies and trade relations [2] - The Chinese government is prioritizing the service sector in 2026, aiming to expand market access and promote digital trade [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is working on initiatives to optimize the layout of state-owned enterprises, with significant investment planned for R&D and asset growth [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the photovoltaic industry and the need for regulatory measures to ensure healthy competition [2] Company Insights - TikTok has established a joint venture in the U.S. for data security, indicating a strategic move to enhance its operational transparency [5] - China National Petroleum Corporation has achieved large-scale production of high-end materials, reducing reliance on imports for strategic industries [5] - SpaceX is preparing for a significant IPO, aiming for a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, which reflects its growth potential in the commercial space sector [5] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is focusing on enhancing its commercial launch capabilities, with ambitious goals for the next decade [5] Banking Sector Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in the proportion of active funds in the banking sector, with a total market value of 1.61 trillion yuan allocated to A-shares [6] - The concentration of holdings among the top five banks has decreased, with notable fluctuations in individual bank positions [7] - Northbound capital has seen a net reduction in bank stocks, with significant decreases in holdings for certain banks [8] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at improving credit conditions and stabilizing net interest margins [8][9]

青岛银行（002948.SZ）：不良双降、拨 备提升，盈利大幅改善 ——2025 年业绩快报点评 资产质量继续改善，不良实现"双降"，拨备覆盖率提升。2025 年末，青岛 银行不良贷款余额 38.41 亿、环比减少 2.88 亿；不良贷款率为 0.97%，环比 下降 3bp。拨备覆盖率 292.3%，环比提高 22.3 pct。青岛银行本轮资产质量 指标改善始于 2024 年一季度，近两年不良率生成率降至 0.5%左右，不良贷 款率自 2023 年末 1.18%下降 21bp，不良贷款额仅增加 3 亿。主要得益于制 造业、基建、地产等对公贷款不良率下降。拨备余额较 2023 年末增加 32.3 亿，拨备覆盖率提升 66.3pct，拨备安全垫持续夯实。从前瞻性指标来看，公 司关注贷款率低位平稳（25Q3 末为 0.55%、较年初下降 1bp），逾期贷款率 稳中有降（25H1 末为 1.24%，较年初下降 18bp），潜在不良生成压力不大。 从不良认定标准来看，公司 25H1 末 90 天以上逾期/不良为 82.2%，不良认定 标准严格。 事件：1 月 29 日，青岛银行发布 2025 年业绩快报，2025 年实 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qingdao Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to market benchmarks [4][19]. Core Views - Qingdao Bank reported significant improvements in profitability, with a 2025 net profit of 5.19 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [1][2]. - The bank's asset quality has improved, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.97%, down 3 basis points from the previous quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 292.3%, up 22.3 percentage points [1][3]. - The growth in net interest income is driven by strong loan demand and an improved cost of liabilities, with total loans and assets growing by 16.5% and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, Qingdao Bank achieved an operating income of 14.57 billion, an 8% increase year-on-year, with net interest income expected to maintain rapid growth due to stable interest margins [2][4]. - The bank's net profit growth rate is projected to be 21.7% for 2025, with a significant increase in profitability compared to previous quarters [2][4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance decreased to 3.841 billion, with a notable reduction in the NPL ratio, indicating improved asset quality [3]. - The provision coverage ratio has strengthened, reflecting a robust buffer against potential loan losses, with a significant increase in provisions compared to the previous year [3]. Growth Prospects - The bank is expected to continue benefiting from the economic growth in Shandong province, which supports its expansion efforts [4]. - Future net profit growth is forecasted at 21.7%, 20.4%, and 20.2% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) estimates of 7.35, 8.45, and 9.75 yuan [4][9].

东 东兴晨报 P1 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 经济要闻 1. 外交部：中英两国领导人成功会晤，同意发展长期稳定的全面战略伙伴 关系（资料来源：同花顺） 2. 财政部：12 月份，全国共销售彩票同比下降 9.1%。其中，福利彩票机 构销售 172.96 亿元，同比下降 9.6%；体育彩票机构销售 350.54 亿元，同 比下降 8.8%。2025 年全年，全国共销售彩票 6279.69 亿元，同比增长 0.7%。 （资料来源：同花顺） 3. 发改委：今年春运期间全社会跨区域人员流动量预计将达 95 亿人次， 创历史新高。自驾出行将继续处于主体地位，占比达八成左右。铁路、民航 客运量预计分别达到 5.4 亿人次和 9500 万人次，总体规模和单日峰值均有 望超过历史同期的峰值。（资料来源：同花顺） 4. 商务部：2025 年，我国全行业对外直接投资 12455.8 亿元人民币，比 上年增长 7.4%。其中，我国境内投资者共对全球 153 个国家和地区的 11048 家境外企业进行了非金融类直接投资，累计投资 10404.2 亿元人民币，增长 1.6%。（资料来源：同花顺） 5. 最高法：最高人民法院知 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 国税局：2025 年税务部门全年征收各项税费 33.1 万亿元。其中，未扣 除出口退税的税收收入 17.8 万亿元，同比增长 2.7%。支持科技创新和制造 业发展的主要优惠政策减税降费退税超 2.8 万亿元，有力促进新质生产力和 实体经济发展。（资料来源：同花顺） 2. 国资委：1 月 28 日，国务院国资委企业改革局局长林庆苗在国新办新 闻发布会上透露，下一步国资委将聚焦国有资本"三个集中"，以重组整合为 抓手，扎实推进国有经济布局优化和结构调整，加快建设更多世界一流企业。 国有资本"三个集中"，首先是扎实做好新央企组建和战略性重组，更加突出 中央企业在战略安全、产业引领、国计民生、公共服务等领域的支撑作用， 更好把企业做强做优做大。其次，深入推进专业化整合，支持创新能力强的 企业作为主体，开展同类业务横向整合、产业链上下游纵向整合，减少行业 内卷。再次，支持中央企业开展高质量并购，获取核心要素、抢占技术先机， 加快培育发展战略性新兴产业和未来产业。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 国家移民管理局：2025 年，全国移民管理机构 ...

银行行业：主动基金重仓比例微升， 北向资金和被动基金有所减持 ——25Q4 基金持仓分析 主动基金：25Q4 重仓市值占比小幅回升。2025 年末，主动偏股型基金重仓 A 股总市值 1.61 万亿，其中配置银行板块 303.67 亿，占比 1.89%、相较过去 5 年/10 年仓位均值（3.02%、3.89%）处于低位。仓位环比 25Q3 上升 0.07pct。 主动基金重仓占银行自由流通市值比重为 1%，环比基本持平。 | 分析师：林瑾璐 | | | --- | --- | | 021-25102905 | linjl@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519070002 | | 分析师：田馨宇 | | | 010-66554013 | tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480521070003 | 从各子板块来看，国股行仓位环比提升、城商行环比下降。2025 年末，国有 行、股份行、城商行、农商行主动基金重仓市值分别为 50.6 亿、97.3 亿、125.5 亿、30.3 亿元；持仓占比分别为 0.31%、0.60%、0.78%、0.19%。 ...

3. 海关：1 月 26 日，海关总署署长孙梅君在署会见哈萨克斯坦总统办公 厅副主任扎纳索娃。双方就落实中哈两国元首战略共识，加强智慧海关合作、 跨境贸易便利化、检验检疫、口岸保通保畅等议题交换意见，达成积极意向。 （资料来源：同花顺） 4. 人力资源保障部：我国将制定《新就业形态劳动者基本权益保障办法》， 进一步明确新就业形态劳动基准和企业劳动保护责任；出台《超龄劳动者基 本权益保障暂行规定》；推动修订《职工带薪年休假条例》，促进用人单位落 实职工带薪年休假制度。（资料来源：同花顺） 5. 香港：香港和上海签订合作协议，成立香港贵金属中央结算系统有限公 司(港金结算公司)。担任主席的财经事务及库务局局长许正宇表示，有逾 10 间本地及海内外银行参与，短期内会召开董事会。为配合黄金市场发展，当 局已将商品交易人才纳入人才清单，相关海外专业人士可透过加分制度申请 来港，同时鼓励企业透过旧人带新人及专业培训，以支持市场长远发展。（资 料来源：同花顺） 6. 财政部：为整治政府采购领域"内卷式"竞争，形成优质优价、良性竞 争的市场秩序，日前，财政部印发《关于推动解决政府采购异常低价问题的 通知》（以下简称"通知"） ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's asset value has significant room for revaluation, with the stock market expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, driven by the transition from old to new economic drivers and the increasing share of the tertiary industry [6] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for the stock market in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts in China and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [7] - The report anticipates a turning point in corporate earnings and valuations in the A-share market, with a projected profit growth rate of around 12% in 2026 [8] Economic News - The report notes that retail sales in various sectors, including home appliances and tourism, have shown significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, which may positively impact market confidence and investment [2] - The report mentions that foreign direct investment in China has increased, particularly in high-tech industries, reflecting a positive trend in attracting foreign capital [2] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector, with a shift towards high-value-added services and technology-driven industries, which is expected to enhance the profitability of Chinese assets [6] - The report highlights the expected growth in the lithium industry, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for lithium demand from 2024 to 2027 [21] - The report indicates that the rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may lead to price increases and improved profitability for related companies [17][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for 2026, including Torch Electronics, which is expected to benefit from improving industry conditions, and Guoli Electronics, which has a strong position in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [13] - Other recommended companies include Huace Navigation, which is poised to benefit from the Beidou satellite system, and Kingsoft Office, which is expected to see growth in its software business [13][14] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the lithium and rare earth sectors, such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyang Salt, due to the anticipated growth in demand for these materials [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the hybrid bonding technology, highlighting its critical role in the AI era and advanced packaging market [7]. Core Insights - Hybrid bonding is identified as a key enabling technology for overcoming performance bottlenecks in the post-Moore era, driven by explosive demand in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [7]. - The market for hybrid bonding equipment is expected to experience significant growth, with demand projected to increase several times by 2030, particularly in high-performance computing and memory applications [5][44]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that while overseas companies like BESI dominate the market, domestic players in China are making significant strides [5][57]. Summary by Sections Hybrid Bonding Overview - Hybrid bonding is an advanced packaging technology that combines dielectric bonding and metal interconnects, allowing for high-density, high-performance 3D integration [14][28]. - The technology enables interconnect distances below 10μm, significantly enhancing data transmission bandwidth compared to traditional methods [29]. Market Demand and Growth - The demand for hybrid bonding technology is transitioning from an advanced option to a core infrastructure in the AI era, with major manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung adopting it for next-generation products [5][33]. - The global hybrid bonding equipment market is projected to exceed $600 million by 2030, with the Chinese market expected to surpass $400 million [48]. Key Players and Competitive Landscape - BESI holds a dominant position in the hybrid bonding equipment market, with a market share of approximately 67% in 2023, and is expected to maintain around 70% in 2024 [57]. - Domestic companies such as Tuojing Technology and Baiao Chemical are rapidly advancing, with Tuojing Technology launching its first mass-production hybrid bonding equipment [5][57]. Applications and Future Trends - Hybrid bonding is primarily applied in 3D NAND and is expanding into high-performance computing scenarios, including HBM4 and HBM5 technologies [25][44]. - The report indicates that the technology is becoming essential for various applications, including AI chips and advanced memory solutions, with significant investments being made in new packaging facilities globally [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the dairy sector, anticipating a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The current adjustment cycle in milk prices is nearing its end, with the previous cycle lasting approximately seven years, driven by over-expansion of dairy enterprises and weakened demand post-pandemic [4]. - Domestic dairy cow inventory is projected to decline to 6.3 million heads in 2024, marking a 4.55% year-on-year decrease, while raw milk production is expected to be 40.79 million tons, down 2.8% year-on-year [5]. - The report suggests that despite a slight increase in milk production due to improved yield per cow, the overall supply of raw milk is stabilizing and may slightly contract in the coming years [6]. - Demand for dairy products remains weak, with per capita consumption expected to decline to 12.6 kg in 2024, but there is potential for long-term growth as current consumption levels are significantly below global averages [7]. - The report highlights that the dairy industry is experiencing a shift towards higher-end products, with growth in segments like milk powder and cheese, indicating a diversification in consumer preferences [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycles - The report outlines the cyclical nature of raw milk prices, typically spanning six years, with the current cycle characterized by prolonged adjustments due to supply-demand imbalances [4][20]. - Historical analysis shows three significant U-shaped cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with the latest cycle beginning in 2021 and marked by a decline in prices due to oversupply [23][30]. 2. Supply-Side Analysis - The supply of raw milk is influenced by factors such as dairy cow inventory, production efficiency, and feed costs, with the latter accounting for over 60% of total costs [32]. - The report notes a significant reduction in dairy cow inventory due to economic pressures, with a shift towards larger, more efficient dairy farms contributing to increased milk yields [41][43]. - The decline in imported dairy products is attributed to price discrepancies, with domestic raw milk becoming more competitive as international prices rise [55]. 3. Demand-Side Analysis - Demand for dairy products has been inconsistent, with per capita consumption fluctuating due to economic conditions and consumer behavior changes [63]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in dairy consumption, particularly in rural areas, as current levels remain low compared to global standards [7][63]. - The diversification of dairy products and the rise of high-end segments are seen as positive indicators for future demand growth [7]. 4. Future Price Trends - The report anticipates a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026, driven by declining cow inventories and a potential stabilization of supply [8]. - Short-term demand may see slight improvements, but long-term growth is expected to be modest, primarily driven by deep processing and import substitution [8].