Summary of U.S. Transportation Outlook - January 2025 Industry Overview - The freight activity backdrop is expected to remain muted in 2025, with limited visibility for a rebound in industrial activity [17][20] - Railroad industrial markets are projected to see 0% to 1% volume growth, with slight growth in chemicals but weakness in metals and forest products [17][20] - Consumer and retail freight may face headwinds from elevated container imports in 2024 and rising inventory levels, potentially leading to declining container imports in the second half of 2025 [17][20] - A gradual tightening in the truckload market is anticipated, supporting 3% to 5% contract pricing gains [17][20] Key Companies and Forecasts Top Picks - **CPKC**: Expected to deliver mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and 10% to 15% EPS growth, with attractive entry points due to tariff concerns [22][23] - **UPS**: Limited downside to EPS expectations, with improving revenue per piece performance anticipated to continue into 2025 [22][23] - **CHRW**: Expected to leverage technology for gross margin expansion and achieve truckload volume growth at or above market levels [22][23] EPS Estimates Adjustments - **Railroads**: EPS estimates for major railroads have been lowered due to weaker growth expectations: - NSC: EPS reduced by 3% [3] - CSX: EPS reduced by 4% [3] - UNP: EPS increased from $2.74 to $2.79 due to better volume performance [6] - **LTL Companies**: EPS estimates for ODFL, SAIA, and XPO have been trimmed, reflecting weaker volume performance: - ODFL: EPS reduced by 4% [3] - SAIA: EPS reduced by 8% [3] - XPO: EPS reduced by 8% [3] Valuation Insights - Parcel and railroad companies are trading at a 7% discount to their five-year average forward P/E, while truckload and LTL companies are trading at significant premiums [4][20] - UPS and CNI are noted to have the steepest discounts at approximately 13% [4] - The average P/E for railroads is 18.4x, while for parcel companies, it is 13.5x, indicating varying levels of valuation attractiveness across sectors [35] Market Dynamics - The truckload market is expected to see gradual tightening, supporting margin improvements of 100 to 200 basis points [20] - Intermodal volumes may face risks due to elevated container imports in 2024, leading to cautious outlooks for intermodal relative to truckload [20] - LTL companies may experience significant earnings leverage once there is a durable pickup in freight demand and pricing [10][20] Conclusion - The U.S. transportation sector is facing a challenging environment with muted growth expectations across various segments, particularly in railroads and LTL. However, select companies like CPKC, UPS, and CHRW are positioned to capitalize on specific market dynamics, presenting potential investment opportunities despite the overall cautious outlook.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Citi Research shuinu9870 shuinu9870 11 December 2024 US REITs and Lodging 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： REITs and Lodging Outlook 2025 Outlook – The Dawn of a New Cycle Anthony Pettinari Senior Analyst – Building Products, Homebuilders, & Paper & Packaging anthony.pettinari@citi.com (212)-816-4693 shuinu9870 Michael Griffin Senior Analyst – CRE Services, Healthcare, ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift from traditional VPN solutions to Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA) due to evolving security needs and remote work challenges [3][4][28] - A majority of organizations (75%) prioritize adopting Zero Trust strategies, with 59% planning to implement ZTNA within the next two years [4][28][30] - The report indicates that 92% of respondents express concerns about VPNs compromising their security capabilities, reflecting a critical need for more secure access solutions [4][17] Summary by Sections VPN Risks and Challenges - 92% of respondents worry about VPNs jeopardizing their security [4][17] - 81% of users are dissatisfied with their VPN experience, primarily due to slow connections and frequent disconnections [4][23] - 56% of organizations are seeking alternatives to traditional VPNs [4][27] VPN Usage and Adoption - 96% of organizations utilize VPNs to protect access to private applications, with 80% using them for remote work [9][4] - 65% of organizations rely on three or more VPN gateways, complicating network management [12] Future of VPN and Alternatives - 75% of organizations view adopting Zero Trust as a priority, with 56% considering alternatives to traditional VPNs [28][27] - 59% of organizations have adopted or plan to adopt ZTNA in the next two years, indicating a shift towards more secure access solutions [30][4] - 78% of respondents believe that ZTNA should completely replace VPNs [32] Budget Allocation - 51% of organizations have increased their budget for remote access solutions, reflecting the growing demand for secure access technologies [36]