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European Morning Research Summary
Barclays· 2024-08-13 09:13
W BARCLAYS Equity Research 12 August 2024 European Morning Research Summary Company Research Ageas N.V. (AGES.BR) Buzzi SpA (BZU.MI) Freenet (FNTGn.DE) Jungheinrich (JUNG_p.DE) Rightmove PIc (RMV.L) Unipol (UNPI.MI) ASML Holding NV (ASML AS) ENAV (ENAV.MI) Generali (GASI.MI) Lanxess (LXSG.DE) Spire Healthcare Group PLC (SPI.L) Ypsomed Holding AG (YPSN.S) Bechtle (BC8G.DE) Endeavour Mining (EDV.L) GSK plc (GSK.L) Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) UCB SA (UCB.BR) Industry Research European Banks European Integrated Ene ...
Americas Small Cap Research Summary
Barclays· 2024-08-13 09:12
Investment Ratings - Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY): Overweight [2] - Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC): Overweight [2] - Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI): Equal Weight [2] - Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN): Equal Weight [2] - Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM): Equal Weight [2] - OptimizeRx (OPRX): Equal Weight [2] - American Axle & Mfg. (AXL): Equal Weight [2] - Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN): Overweight [2] - FIGS, Inc. (FIGS): Equal Weight [2] - Fluence Energy (FLNC): Overweight [2] - JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD): Equal Weight [2] - TruBridge, Inc. (TBRG): Equal Weight [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a generally positive outlook for the industries covered, with several companies receiving an Overweight rating, suggesting expected outperformance relative to their peers [2][7][16] - Revenue guidance adjustments were noted for several companies, with Array Technologies reducing its FY24 revenue guidance by approximately 30% due to backlog pushouts [22] - Fluence Energy reported solid bookings and a revenue beat, indicating growth visibility despite lower average selling prices [23] - Hanesbrands is refocusing on its core innerwear business following the divestiture of Champion, which is expected to improve margins [27] Summary by Company Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 11.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.69, EPS FY2 (E): 1.21 - Market Cap: USD 1.0787 billion - Key Insights: New FY24 revenue guidance cut by ~30% due to backlog pushouts [22] Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 6.00 - EPS FY1 (E): -0.04, EPS FY2 (E): 0.70 - Market Cap: USD 0.6981 billion - Key Insights: Weak Q3 pretax margin guidance but potential for positive RASM [16] Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 6.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.35, EPS FY2 (E): 0.61 - Market Cap: USD 2.1418 billion - Key Insights: Focus on core business expected to improve margins [27] Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 10.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.50, EPS FY2 (E): 0.51 - Market Cap: USD 1.8307 billion - Key Insights: Strong margins and adjusted EBITDA guidance despite a weaker top line [16] Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 6.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.09, EPS FY2 (E): 0.17 - Market Cap: USD 0.6126 billion - Key Insights: Earnings growth driven by cost initiatives [19] OptimizeRx (OPRX) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 11.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.35, EPS FY2 (E): 0.55 - Market Cap: USD 0.1531 billion - Key Insights: Revenue miss attributed to deal timing delay [12] Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 27.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.29, EPS FY2 (E): 0.62 - Market Cap: USD 1.6842 billion - Key Insights: Convincing earnings beat and growth visibility [10] Fluence Energy (FLNC) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 28.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.34, EPS FY2 (E): 0.98 - Market Cap: USD 2.933 billion - Key Insights: Record bookings and solid revenue beat [23] JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 13.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 1.30, EPS FY2 (E): 1.42 - Market Cap: USD 1.1971 billion - Key Insights: Cost efforts expected to drive structural savings [18] TruBridge, Inc. (TBRG) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 10.00 - EPS FY1 (E): -0.40, EPS FY2 (E): 0.04 - Market Cap: USD 0.1886 billion - Key Insights: High-margin EHR license sale reported [13]
Americas Morning Research Summary
Barclays· 2024-08-13 09:12
Investment Ratings - Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY): Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 18.00 to 11.00 [2] - CACI International: Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 450.00 to 500.00 [2] - Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 68.00 to 85.00 [2] - Endeavour Mining (EDV.L): Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 34.00 to 29.00 [2] - Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC): Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 7.00 to 6.00 [2] - Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 5.00 to 6.00 [2] - Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 9.00 to 10.00 [2] - Insulet (PODD): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 200.00 to 220.00 [2] - Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 54.00 to 46.00 [2] - OGE Energy Corp. (OGE): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 36.00 to 39.00 [2] - OptimizeRx (OPRX): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 15.00 to 11.00 [2] - P10 Inc. (PX): Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 9.50 to 11.00 [2] - Repay Holdings Corp. (RPAY): Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 12.00 to 11.00 [2] - Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD): Underweight (UW) with a target price change from 20.00 to 18.00 [2] - StepStone Group, Inc: Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 46.00 to 51.00 [2] - Triumph Group Inc: Overweight (OW) with a target price change from 18.00 to 16.00 [2] - Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST): Equal Weight (EW) with a target price change from 25.00 to 35.00 [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a notable disconnect between EPS momentum and share price for Endeavour Mining, with expectations of free cash flow (FCF) rising sharply from H2, projecting an 18.1% spot FCF yield in 2025 and a cumulative 2-year cash return yield of 13.8% for 2024 and 2025 [6] - The U.S. healthcare technology and distribution sector is experiencing mixed results, with OptimizeRx facing a revenue miss due to timing delays, while Insulet raised sales and operational margin guidance [22][27] - The U.S. biopharmaceuticals sector is highlighted by strong performances from companies like Eli Lilly, which is breathing confidence into the GLP-1 trade following impressive second-quarter results [25][29] Summary by Category U.S. Autos & Mobility - American Axle & Mfg. (AXL) reported one of the best supplier results of Q2, but leverage issues may mute opportunities for stock performance [31] - Boeing Co. (BA) is tracking the shipping of Dreamlifters, indicating a steady pace of operations [31] U.S. Chemicals - Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is guiding down production but ramping up buybacks, indicating a strategic shift in response to market conditions [12] U.S. Healthcare - Insulet's sales beat expectations, and the company raised its sales and operational margin guidance, reflecting positive momentum in the medical supplies and devices sector [22] - OptimizeRx's revenue miss is attributed to timing delays, impacting its stock performance [27] U.S. Biopharmaceuticals - Eli Lilly's strong performance in the GLP-1 market is noted, with significant growth potential anticipated [25][29]
US CPI Inflation Preview (July 2024 CPI):Core CPI expected to have firmed in July
Barclays· 2024-08-12 09:30
FICC Research Economics 8 August 2024 US CPI Inflation Preview (July 2024 CPI) Core CPI expected to have firmed in July We look for firming in July core CPI inflation to 0.21% m/m SA, from an unusually soft 0.06% reading in June. We expect a payback in shelter inflation and less deflation in core goods to drive this acceleration. For headline CPI, we look for a 0.21% m/m SA increase and expect the NSA index to print at 314.817. • We expect US headline CPI to have risen 0.21% m/m SA in July (from -0.06% in J ...
Food for Thought:Sector Selection for Rate Reduction
Barclays· 2024-08-12 09:29
Equity Research Equity Strategy 9 August 2024 CORE U.S. Equity Strategy Food for Thought: Sector Selection for Rate Reduction Over 13 rate cutting cycles stretching back to the 1980s, Healthcare and Staples outperformed most consistently over the 6 months following the first cut, likely because most of these coincided with recessions. In the 2 "soft landing" cycles of the mid-90s, cyclical and growth sectors performed better after the first cut. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...