The Brink's Company: Too Soon To Cash Out

Core Viewpoint - The Brink's Company has demonstrated significant stock performance, with a 91.9% increase over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 43.6% rise, indicating strong investor interest and potential for continued growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, The Brink's Company reported revenue of $4.87 billion, a 7.5% increase from $4.54 billion in 2022 [3]. - The company's net income fell from $173.5 million in 2022 to $87.7 million in 2023, while operating cash flow rose from $479.9 million to $702.4 million, and EBITDA increased from $788.3 million to $867.2 million [4]. - In the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, revenue increased from $1.19 billion to $1.24 billion, with net income more than tripling from $15 million to $49.3 million [5]. Regional Performance - North America remains the largest revenue contributor, with a slight increase from $1.58 billion in 2022 to $1.60 billion in 2023, driven by price increases but offset by lower volumes [4]. - Latin America showed strong growth, with sales rising from $1.21 billion in 2022 to $1.33 billion in 2023, despite a negative impact of $162.8 million from foreign currency fluctuations [4]. - Europe contributed positively with organic sales increases of $71.4 million and acquisitions adding $107 million to revenue [4]. Future Outlook - Management forecasts revenue for fiscal year 2024 to be between $5.075 billion and $5.225 billion, representing a 5.6% increase from the previous year [5]. - Expected earnings per share are projected to be between $7.30 and $8, with adjusted net income anticipated to be around $346.5 million at the midpoint [5]. Valuation Metrics - The Brink's Company is considered attractively priced relative to its peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1, price-to-operating cash flow of 8.4, and EV/EBITDA of 7.5, making it one of the cheaper options in its sector [6][7][8]. Investment Thesis - Despite the stock's significant past performance, it remains a 'buy' due to its continued growth potential and relatively low valuation compared to similar companies [9].