智能互联｜农机自动驾驶系统：内需+出口双轮驱动，行业发展驶入快车道

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural machinery autonomous driving system is emerging due to increasing structural issues in agriculture, driven by endogenous demand, policy guidance, and technological breakthroughs. The market is expected to exceed 450 billion yuan by 2030, with a significant increase in domestic penetration and successful overseas market expansion [2][12]. Demand Analysis - The core demand from users is cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the average daily operational capacity of autonomous machinery exceeding manual labor by 30%, potentially saving 50% in labor costs. The average price of autonomous driving systems has decreased by 76% from 2017 to 2022, enhancing purchasing enthusiasm [3][11]. - The existing usage cycle for autonomous driving systems is approximately five years, leading to increased demand for stock updates as penetration rates rise [11]. Supply Analysis - The industry has high entry barriers, entering a "product-oriented" era where technology, channels, service, and brand are crucial for competitive advantage. Companies with early advantages in data accumulation and independent R&D capabilities are more competitive [5][12]. - The sales model in the industry is primarily dealer-based, with companies that have a more comprehensive layout of domestic and international dealers being favored [13]. Export Opportunities - Chinese manufacturers are successfully entering overseas markets, particularly in North America, by leveraging high cost-performance ratios and geopolitical opportunities, focusing on low-cost replacements in mature markets and penetration in emerging markets [4][12]. Brand and Service Considerations - 90% of potential end-users are individual users who prioritize brand recognition, making brand awareness a critical factor for market success [14]. - Companies that provide easy installation and comprehensive service are more favored by farmers, who may have lower education and skill levels [6]. Market Dynamics - The market landscape is changing significantly, with the top three companies (CR3) holding approximately 39% market share in 2023. The competition is intensifying, necessitating a comprehensive strategy across technology, channels, service, and brand [12][15].