中金 | 十年展望V：电动化正在改变全球汽车格局

Global EV Market Overview - Global EV sales exceeded 13 million units in 2023, with a new energy penetration rate of over 18% [20] - China accounted for 65% of global EV sales in 2023, followed by Western Europe (20%) and North America (11%) [20][30] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of global EV sales from 2020 to 2023 exceeded 60% [20] Regional EV Market Dynamics China - China remains the largest EV market globally, contributing 249 million units to the global EV sales growth in 2023 [20] - Chinese automakers, such as BYD, have gained significant market share, with BYD entering the global top 10 automakers for the first time in 2023 [16][60] Western Europe - Western Europe's EV market growth slowed in 2022 due to subsidy reductions, high electricity prices, and macroeconomic pressures [31][32] - The EU's "Fit for 55" climate plan aims for a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions for cars and vans by 2030 and zero emissions by 2035 [31][82] North America - North America's EV market was relatively underdeveloped before 2020, with sales below 400,000 units and a penetration rate under 3% [24] - The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has boosted EV adoption, with a target of 50% EV sales by 2030 [33][36] - Tesla dominates the North American EV market with a 45% share in 2023, while other automakers like Stellantis and Ford have gained some ground [38][56] Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia is in the early stages of EV adoption, with Thailand leading the region with a 77% share of EV sales and a 17% penetration rate in 2023 [9][15] - Several Southeast Asian countries have set ambitious EV targets, such as Thailand aiming for 30% EV production by 2009 and Indonesia targeting 30% low-emission vehicles by 2035 [9] Automaker Performance and Strategies Traditional Automakers - Volkswagen leads in global EV sales among traditional automakers, with over 900,000 units sold in 2023 and a 7% global market share [1] - BMW and Stellantis follow with sales in the 300,000-500,000 unit range and global market shares of 2%-5% [1] - Japanese automakers like Toyota and Nissan have been slower in EV adoption, with global EV market shares of only 1% [1][48] Chinese Automakers - Chinese automakers are rapidly expanding globally, with BYD, NIO, and others establishing manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia and other regions [9][19] - Chinese automakers are expected to benefit from the large domestic market and early advantages in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America [18][19] Tesla - Tesla remains a dominant player in the global EV market, particularly in North America, where it holds a 45% market share [38][56] - Tesla's product cycles, such as the Model Y and Model 3, have been key drivers of EV adoption in the US [45][84] Future Outlook - By 2030, global EV sales are expected to reach 36 million units, with a penetration rate of 45% [17] - China, the US, and Western Europe will remain the core markets, with China expected to account for over 20 million units, the US for 5.2 million, and Western Europe for 4.9 million [17] - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia, Latin America, and India are expected to contribute an additional 4.2 million units by 2030 [17][49] Challenges and Risks - European automakers face challenges in battery supply chain development, with slow progress in battery factory construction and high reliance on imports [81] - Japanese automakers are under pressure in rapidly electrifying markets like China and Southeast Asia, where their market share is declining [48][86] - Trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions could hinder the global expansion of automakers, particularly in regions like Europe and North America [43][96]