Do Strong Volume Warrant Q2 Earnings Beat for Boston Beer (SAM)?

Core Viewpoint - Boston Beer Company is expected to report second-quarter 2024 results on July 25, with anticipated bottom-line growth compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $4.96 per share, indicating a growth of 5.1% from the year-ago quarter, although the estimate has declined by 2.4% in the past 30 days [2] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is $595.2 million, suggesting a 1.4% decline from the previous year's reported figure [2] Volume and Revenue Trends - The second-quarter results are expected to reflect trends in volumes, pricing, and margin performance, with improved volumes and favorable pricing noted in the first quarter [3] - Continued momentum in the Twisted Tea brand and efforts to maintain core brand relevance are anticipated to drive robust volume trends in the second quarter [3][5] - The company is focused on nurturing its core brands and driving innovation through the Beyond Beer initiative, which is expected to contribute to category growth [4] Operational Performance - Boston Beer has benefited from strong price realization, procurement savings, and improved brewery performance, which are expected to bolster gross margin despite inflationary pressures [7] - However, gross margin may be impacted by shortfall fees and third-party production prepayments, which are likely to continue affecting growth in the second quarter [8] Category Challenges - The hard seltzer category slowdown is expected to weigh on the performance of the Truly brand, with anticipated volume declines throughout 2024 [9]