Fertility Trends and Challenges - Fertility rates in China have been declining, with the total fertility rate dropping from 1.7 in 2016 to 1.02 in 2023 [27][71] - The fertility realization rate has decreased from 87.2% in 2017 to 63.3% in 2021, indicating a growing gap between fertility intentions and actual births [2][32] - The average age of first childbirth has increased from 24.3 years in 2000 to 27.9 years in 2020, reflecting a trend of delayed childbearing [8][53] Demographic Shifts - The number of women of childbearing age (15-49 years) peaked at 380 million in 2011 and declined to 310 million by 2022, with an annual decrease of 6.19 million [6][69] - The main childbearing age group (20-35 years) has also seen a decline, from 170 million in 2013 to 140 million in 2022, with an annual decrease of 3.53 million [6][69] - The fertility rate among women aged 20-24 has dropped significantly, from 114.5‰ in 2000 to 55.2‰ in 2020, while the fertility rate among women aged 30-34 has increased from 28.6‰ to 95.1‰ [5][8] Economic and Social Constraints - The cost of raising a child in China is high, with the cost-to-GDP ratio at 6.3, higher than most countries except South Korea [2][59] - Gender wage gaps in urban employment are significant, with a 22.9% disparity, which is among the highest in OECD countries [2][60] - Housing, education, and healthcare costs are major barriers to fertility, with housing costs in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai being particularly burdensome [59][95] International Comparisons - France has maintained a relatively high fertility rate of 1.8 through comprehensive family policies, including generous parental leave and childcare services [3][102] - Germany has seen its fertility rate rise to 1.5 by promoting gender equality in parenting and increasing financial support for families [3][97] - Japan's fertility rate has fallen below 1.3 due to traditional gender roles and insufficient support for working mothers [3][34] Policy Responses - China has shifted from strict birth control policies to encouraging fertility, with the introduction of the three-child policy and various support measures [4][13][43] - Local governments have implemented financial incentives, such as monthly subsidies ranging from 1,000 to 6,000 yuan per child, to encourage childbirth [18][20] - Tax deductions for childcare and education expenses have been increased, with deductions for children under 3 years old rising from 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per month [20][44] Future Projections - Without effective fertility encouragement policies, China's birth population is projected to fall below 700 million in the near future and could drop to less than 100 million by 2100 [31][69] - The aging population and declining workforce pose significant challenges to economic growth and social stability [31][69]
中国生育报告2024
泽平宏观·2024-07-20 13:49