Certainly Uncertain

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets experienced their worst week since April, with the S&P 500 declining by 2.0% and the Nasdaq 100 dropping by 4% as political developments increased market volatility [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pivot towards rate cuts later this quarter, with a 98% probability of a rate cut in September [3][4] - The VIX index, which measures stock market volatility, reached its highest level since April [3] Real Estate Sector Performance - The Equity REIT Index rose by 1.5% this week, with 16 out of 18 property sectors showing positive performance, driven by strong earnings from REITs and homebuilders [1][10] - Homebuilders have seen a resurgence, with a nearly 20% increase over the past two weeks [1] - Small-Cap 600 index outperformed, gaining 2.3%, while Mid-Cap 400 declined by 0.3% [1] Economic Data Insights - Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.867 million, the highest since November 2021, while initial jobless claims reached 243,000, significantly above estimates [5][6] - Retail sales were flat month-over-month, but core retail sales (excluding auto and gas) increased by 0.8% from the previous month and 3.8% year-over-year [6][7] - Housing starts and building permits data showed a rebound in multifamily construction activity, offsetting softness in the single-family segment [6][10] REIT Earnings Season - The earnings season for real estate has begun, with REITs showing upside momentum after a challenging two-year period [10][12] - Prologis reported solid results, indicating a bottoming in fundamentals and a slight improvement in demand trends, with a full-year Core FFO growth outlook raised to 7.8% [14] - First Industrial raised its full-year NOI growth forecast to 8.75%, driven by strong leasing activity [15] IPO Activity - Lineage, the world's largest cold storage operator, is planning a $3.8 billion IPO, which would be the largest in the REIT sector this year [12] - The IPO is expected to raise funds to pay down debt and capitalize on the easing of rate-related headwinds in the real estate sector [12]